Risk Assessment Process State Homeland Security Assessment and

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Risk Assessment Process State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program

Risk Assessment Process State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program

Threat Assessment 2 How Does “Threat” Fit into the Homeland Security Strategic Planning Process?

Threat Assessment 2 How Does “Threat” Fit into the Homeland Security Strategic Planning Process? State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program

Threat Assessment State Administrative Agency Needs Assessment Risk Assessment Vulnerability Assessment Threat Assessment Desired

Threat Assessment State Administrative Agency Needs Assessment Risk Assessment Vulnerability Assessment Threat Assessment Desired Capabilities Current Capabilities Shortfalls or “Gaps” 3 State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program

REFERENCE: Jurisdiction Handbook page 11 Threat Assessment v PTE Defined 4 ØGroups or individuals

REFERENCE: Jurisdiction Handbook page 11 Threat Assessment v PTE Defined 4 ØGroups or individuals indicating the unlawful use of force or violence ØSpecifically the utilization of a WMD… ØTo intimidate or coerce… ØGovernment or civilian population… ØPolitical or social purposes State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program

Threat Assessment v Weapons of Mass Destruction (18 USC 2332 a) 5 Defines a

Threat Assessment v Weapons of Mass Destruction (18 USC 2332 a) 5 Defines a weapon of mass destruction as (1) any destructive device as defined in section 921 of this title, [which reads] any explosive, incendiary, or poison gas, bomb, grenade, rocket having a propellant charge of more than four ounces, missile having an explosive or incendiary charge of more than one-quarter ounce, mine or device similar to the above; (2) poison gas; (3) any weapon involving a disease organism; or (4) any weapon that is designed to release radiation or radioactivity at a level dangerous to human life. State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program

Threat Assessment v Threat Working Group 6 ØLaw enforcement personnel/intelligence components ØConsider all appropriate

Threat Assessment v Threat Working Group 6 ØLaw enforcement personnel/intelligence components ØConsider all appropriate personnel/agencies ØAdditional participants should be limited to subject matter experts who advise on terrorism related issues ØFBI WMD Coordinator ØFBI Joint Terrorism Task Force ØProvide information on motives and capabilities of PTE State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program

Threat Assessment v Joint Terrorism Task Force 7 ØCombines federal, state and local law

Threat Assessment v Joint Terrorism Task Force 7 ØCombines federal, state and local law enforcement ØDevelop cohesive strategy for identifying, investigating and prosecuting terrorists ØIntelligence collection and analysis to prevent terrorist acts Ø 66 JTTF’s nationwide State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program

Threat Assessment v FBI WMD Coordinator 8 ØLocated within FBI field offices ØAssist state

Threat Assessment v FBI WMD Coordinator 8 ØLocated within FBI field offices ØAssist state and local jurisdictions with identifying WMD threat elements ØAssist state and local jurisdictions in their establishment of policies and procedures established for responding to WMD terrorist attacks ØLiaison to the Joint Terrorism Task Force State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program

Threat Assessment 9 Law Enforcement On-line (LEO) State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program

Threat Assessment 9 Law Enforcement On-line (LEO) State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program

Threat Assessment v Safeguards 10 ØInformation sharing limited to working group ØNo recording or

Threat Assessment v Safeguards 10 ØInformation sharing limited to working group ØNo recording or forwarding of sensitive information ØAlternatives recognized but require submission using existing format State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program

Threat Assessment v Cautions 11 Ø“Snapshot” of current operational activity within jurisdiction ØAssessment does

Threat Assessment v Cautions 11 Ø“Snapshot” of current operational activity within jurisdiction ØAssessment does not warrant opening an investigation ØLone offenders and splinter groups should be considered ØDifferent interpretations of threat factors ØTendency to “inflate” results State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program

REFERENCE: Threat Assessment v Threat Assessment Process 12 Jurisdiction Handbook page 12 ØAssessment completion

REFERENCE: Threat Assessment v Threat Assessment Process 12 Jurisdiction Handbook page 12 ØAssessment completion off-line ØOrganize threat working group ØPTE existence ØPast violent history ØEvidence of intentions ØEvidence of capability ØEvidence of targeting ØJurisdiction threat rating (highest threat) ØOn-line entry of threat rating State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program

REFERENCE: Jurisdiction Handbook page 14 Threat Assessment v Document Threat Working Group 13 ØJurisdiction

REFERENCE: Jurisdiction Handbook page 14 Threat Assessment v Document Threat Working Group 13 ØJurisdiction population and coordinating agency ØPOC for Threat Working Group ØWorking group agencies ØFBI/Joint Terrorism Task Force participation State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program

Threat Assessment 14 Threat Assessment Factors v Existence: ØThe presence of a group or

Threat Assessment 14 Threat Assessment Factors v Existence: ØThe presence of a group or individual, operating within the jurisdiction… State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program

Threat Assessment 15 v History: ØDemonstrated past terrorist activity over time or a recorded,

Threat Assessment 15 v History: ØDemonstrated past terrorist activity over time or a recorded, violent criminal history… State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program

Threat Assessment 16 v Intentions: ØCredible advocacy/threats of force or violence, acts, preparations to

Threat Assessment 16 v Intentions: ØCredible advocacy/threats of force or violence, acts, preparations to act; evidencing intent to create a WMD, carry out a plan to release a WMD, or to participate in a WMD incident State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program

Threat Assessment v Capability: 17 ØCredible information that a specific PTE possesses the requisite

Threat Assessment v Capability: 17 ØCredible information that a specific PTE possesses the requisite training, skills, finances, and access to resources needed to develop, produce, or acquire a particular type of WMD in a quantity and/or potency sufficient to produce mass casualties, combined with information substantiating the PTE’s ability to safely store, test, and deliver the same State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program

Threat Assessment 18 v Targeting: ØCredible information indicative of preparations for specific terrorist operations

Threat Assessment 18 v Targeting: ØCredible information indicative of preparations for specific terrorist operations against identifiable targets located within the specified jurisdiction State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program

REFERENCE: Jurisdiction Handbook page 16 Threat Assessment Threat Factor Values 19 State Homeland Security

REFERENCE: Jurisdiction Handbook page 16 Threat Assessment Threat Factor Values 19 State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program

Threat Assessment v Assess PTE Motivations 20 ØPolitical ØReligious ØRacial ØEnvironmental ØSpecial Interest State

Threat Assessment v Assess PTE Motivations 20 ØPolitical ØReligious ØRacial ØEnvironmental ØSpecial Interest State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program

Threat Assessment v Identify WMD Capabilities of PTE 21 ØChemical ØBiological ØRadiological ØNuclear ØExplosive

Threat Assessment v Identify WMD Capabilities of PTE 21 ØChemical ØBiological ØRadiological ØNuclear ØExplosive CBRNE State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program

Threat Assessment Jurisdiction Threat Worksheet Motivation Threat Factors Threat Level (1 -10) PTE 1

Threat Assessment Jurisdiction Threat Worksheet Motivation Threat Factors Threat Level (1 -10) PTE 1 Existence (1) Violent History (1) 1 1 Intentions (2) WMD Capability (2) C=Chemical B=Biological R=Radiological N=Nuclear E=Explosive Choose one or more Ra E Targeting (4) 2 PTE 3 22 P=Political R=Religious E=Environmental Ra=Racial S=Special Interest WMD Categories State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program

REFERENCE: Threat Assessment Jurisdiction Handbook page 18 23 v Jurisdiction Threat Profile process ØNumber

REFERENCE: Threat Assessment Jurisdiction Handbook page 18 23 v Jurisdiction Threat Profile process ØNumber of PTE ØExisting PTE capabilities ØWMD Threat History ØJurisdiction Threat Rating State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program

Threat Assessment 24 v Step 1 - Number of PTE ØPTE assessed in your

Threat Assessment 24 v Step 1 - Number of PTE ØPTE assessed in your jurisdiction ØIf no known PTE - a rating of zero is recorded here Total Number of PTE State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program

Threat Assessment 25 v Step 2 - Existing PTE capabilities ØDocument PTE capabilities §

Threat Assessment 25 v Step 2 - Existing PTE capabilities ØDocument PTE capabilities § CBRNE Chemical Nuclear Biological Explosive Radiological None State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program

Threat Assessment v Step 3 - WMD Threat History ØDocument threat history § January

Threat Assessment v Step 3 - WMD Threat History ØDocument threat history § January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2002 Threatened WMD Hazard Total Number of Responses to Suspected WMD Threats and/or Incidents Number of WMD Threats and/or Incidents Determined to be Criminal Chemical Biological Radiological Nuclear Explosive 26 State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program

Threat Assessment 27 v Step 4 - Threat Rating ØJurisdiction threat rating § Highest

Threat Assessment 27 v Step 4 - Threat Rating ØJurisdiction threat rating § Highest threat level Jurisdiction Threat Rating State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program

Threat Assessment 28 DISCUSSION State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program

Threat Assessment 28 DISCUSSION State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program

Basic Vulnerability Assessment 29 How Does “Vulnerability” Fit Into the Homeland Security Strategic Planning

Basic Vulnerability Assessment 29 How Does “Vulnerability” Fit Into the Homeland Security Strategic Planning Process? State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program

Basic Vulnerability Assessment 30 State Administrative Agency Needs Assessment Risk Assessment Vulnerability Assessment Threat

Basic Vulnerability Assessment 30 State Administrative Agency Needs Assessment Risk Assessment Vulnerability Assessment Threat Assessment Desired Capabilities Current Capabilities Shortfalls or “Gaps” State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program

Basic Vulnerability Assessment 31 v Vulnerability Defined ØThe process of identifying any weaknesses that

Basic Vulnerability Assessment 31 v Vulnerability Defined ØThe process of identifying any weaknesses that can be exploited by an adversary to gain access or information ØVulnerabilities can result from, but are not limited to: § Building characteristics § Equipment properties § Personal behavior § Operational practices State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program

Basic Vulnerability Assessment REFERENCE: 32 Reference Handbook page B-10 v Potential Targets ØFacilities ØSites

Basic Vulnerability Assessment REFERENCE: 32 Reference Handbook page B-10 v Potential Targets ØFacilities ØSites ØSystems ØSpecial events State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program

Basic Vulnerability Assessment 33 v Vulnerability Working Group ØMulti-discipline members ØInclude personnel who can

Basic Vulnerability Assessment 33 v Vulnerability Working Group ØMulti-discipline members ØInclude personnel who can provide specific information unique to potential target State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program

Basic Vulnerability Assessment REFERENCE: 34 Jurisdiction Handbook page 20 4 Step Process Determine Jurisdictional

Basic Vulnerability Assessment REFERENCE: 34 Jurisdiction Handbook page 20 4 Step Process Determine Jurisdictional Vulnerability Conduct Individual Target Vulnerability Assessments Identify Potential Targets Organize the Assessment Team • Highest Worksheet Rating • Jurisdiction Vulnerability Rating • Vulnerability Assessment Worksheets • 7 Assessment Factors • Critical Assets List • Top 10% (10 or less – all targets) • Multidiscipline members • Working knowledge of facilities, sites, systems, or special events State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program

Basic Vulnerability Assessment 35 v Seven Factors Used to Assess Vulnerability ØLevel of visibility

Basic Vulnerability Assessment 35 v Seven Factors Used to Assess Vulnerability ØLevel of visibility ØCriticality of target site to jurisdiction ØImpact outside of the jurisdiction ØPTE access to potential target ØPotential target threat of hazard ØPotential target site population capacity ØPotential for collateral mass casualties State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program

Basic Vulnerability Assessment 36 v Step 1 - Assess the awareness of the existence

Basic Vulnerability Assessment 36 v Step 1 - Assess the awareness of the existence and visibility of the target to the general public State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program

Basic Vulnerability Assessment 37 v Step 2 - Assess usefulness of assets to local

Basic Vulnerability Assessment 37 v Step 2 - Assess usefulness of assets to local population, economy, government, etc. Potential targets deemed essential to the continuity of the jurisdiction State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program

Basic Vulnerability Assessment 38 v Step 3 - Assess the effect loss will have

Basic Vulnerability Assessment 38 v Step 3 - Assess the effect loss will have outside of the jurisdiction State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program

Basic Vulnerability Assessment 39 v Step 4 - Assess the availability of the target

Basic Vulnerability Assessment 39 v Step 4 - Assess the availability of the target for ingress and egress by a PTE State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program

Basic Vulnerability Assessment 40 v Step 5 - Assess the presence of legal WMD

Basic Vulnerability Assessment 40 v Step 5 - Assess the presence of legal WMD material (CBRNE) in quantities that could be the target of a terrorist attack or would complicate the response to an incident at that facility State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program

Basic Vulnerability Assessment 41 v Step 6 - Assess the maximum number of individuals

Basic Vulnerability Assessment 41 v Step 6 - Assess the maximum number of individuals at a site at any given time State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program

Basic Vulnerability Assessment 42 v Step 7 - Assess potential collateral mass casualties within

Basic Vulnerability Assessment 42 v Step 7 - Assess potential collateral mass casualties within a one-mile radius of the target site State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program

Basic Vulnerability Assessment v Summary score v Rating key Summary Score _____Visibility _____Criticality _____Impact

Basic Vulnerability Assessment v Summary score v Rating key Summary Score _____Visibility _____Criticality _____Impact Outside Jurisdiction _____PTE Access to Target _____Potential Target Threat _____Potential Site Population _____Potential for Collateral Mass Casualties ____ TOTAL 0 - 2 pts. = 1 3 - 5 pts. = 2 6 - 8 pts. = 3 9 - 11 pts. = 4 12 - 14 pts. = 5 15 - 17 pts. = 6 18 - 20 pts. = 7 21 - 23 pts. = 8 24 - 26 pts. = 9 27 - 29 pts. = 10 30 - 32 pts. = 11 33 - 35 pts. = 12 v Enter target rating ØDocument rating for each target Target Name or Number: 43 Basic Target Vulnerability Assessment Rating Key Rating State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program

Basic Vulnerability Assessment REFERENCE: 44 Jurisdiction Handbook page 25 v Final vulnerability rating ØHighest

Basic Vulnerability Assessment REFERENCE: 44 Jurisdiction Handbook page 25 v Final vulnerability rating ØHighest vulnerability rating of all site/targets ØInclude raw score Jurisdiction Vulnerability Rating Basic Vulnerability Summary Raw Score (Highest Target Score) Basic Vulnerability Rating State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program

Basic Vulnerability Assessment 45 v Legal Hazards: ØAdhere to CBRNE definitions CBRNE Material Number

Basic Vulnerability Assessment 45 v Legal Hazards: ØAdhere to CBRNE definitions CBRNE Material Number of sites located in jurisdiction Chemical (Tier II) Biological (Infectious Only) Radiological Nuclear Explosive State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program

Basic Vulnerability Assessment REFERENCE: 47 Jurisdiction Handbook page 27 v Site-Specific Vulnerability Assessment ØSurvey

Basic Vulnerability Assessment REFERENCE: 47 Jurisdiction Handbook page 27 v Site-Specific Vulnerability Assessment ØSurvey for ODP ØSpecialized assessment to harden target ØEstimates future assessments required ØBy jurisdiction State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program

Basic Vulnerability Assessment 48 DISCUSSION State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program

Basic Vulnerability Assessment 48 DISCUSSION State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program