Risk Assessment in China assisted by GIS Xu

Risk Assessment in China assisted by GIS Xu Yan Institute of Animal and Plant Quarantine, Chinese Academy of Inspection and Quarantine, AQSIQ, China Xu Rumei College of Biological Science, Beijing Normal University, China October 24 -28, 2005, Niagara Falls, Canada

Outlines Introduction l Methods and Data Preparation l Results and Analysis l Applications and Future l

This study is supported by: State Key Basic Research and Development Plan (973 project) : The ecological impact of biological invasion and eco-safety, 2000 -2005, (G 2000046803) l AQSIQ Scientific and Research Project: Study on phytosanitary policy making assisted by geographic information system l

Importance of using GIS China has a large area and several climatic zones, GIS can play an important role in suitability analysis and endangered areas l Most demanding l Applied widely l Provide scientific support for national policy making l

2 Methods and Data Preparation Software l Attribute Databases l GIS Map Databases l Data transfer between CLIMEX and GIS l

Software l l CLIMEX for Windows Version 1. 1 b GIS Arc. Info Version 8. 0. 1 Arc. View GIS 3. 2 with Spatial Analysis Map. Info Professional Version 6. 0 l Database Microsoft Access 2000 Microsoft Excel 2000

Attribute Database Pest Data l Intercepted Data l Climatic data l Crop Data l Custom Data l

Climatic data l 1980 -1998 daily climatic data – 4247570 records l l 1950 -1980 yearly average data CRU 0. 5 X 0. 5 grid data (http: //ipcc-ddc. cru. uea. ac. uk/)

3 Results and Analysis l l l l l Medfly (Ceratitis capitata) Pine wood nematode Bemisia tabaci Biotype B Bactrocera tryoni Popillia japonica Epiphyas postvittana Lissorhoptrus oryzophilus Thrips palmi Bactrocera dorsalis

Medfly (Ceratitis capitata) l 4 Models of Greenhouse effect in CLIMEX: CLIMEX 05, 1, 2, 01 with increasingly greenhouse effect，the percentage of the suitable area for Medfly to total area of China are 26. 8%、28. 9％、30. 4％、 33. 7％、38. 1％. Its north limits of suitable area will go further north with the development of greenhouse.

4 Models of Greenhouse effect in CLIMEX Model Winter Low Temp. Increase (℃) Summer Low Temp. Increase (℃) Winter High. Temp. increase (℃) Summer High. Temp. increase (℃) Winter Rainfall Summer Rainfall 05 0. 5 -20% 1 1 1 -20% 2 2 2 -20% 01 0. 1/lat -20%

Using GIS to analyzing the suitability of PWN Mamiya think that yearly average temperature (YAT) is an important indexes for the suitability of PWN YAT <10℃, no occurrence YAT 10 -12℃, sporadic occur YAT 12 -14℃, epidemic YAT >14℃，outbreak

4 Application and Future Applications l 3 S (GIS, GPS and RS) Lab setup in 2004 in the Institute of Animal and Plant Quarantine l

The End Dr. Xu Yan Institute of Animal and Plant Quarantine Chinese Academy of Inspection and Quarantine, AQSIQ 241 Hui Xin Li, Chaoyang District, 100029, Beijing, China Email: xuyan 98@vip. sina. com; xu_yan 98@hotmail. com