Risk Assessment for Rare Events Application to terrorism

Risk Assessment for Rare Events Application to terrorism: talk at Duke University April 23 rd 2008 Richard Wilson Mallinckrodt Research Professor of Physics Harvard University

Physicists are used to rare events: they occur with calculated probability Molecules reaching the surface of a liquid usually turn back. A few (fast ones) evaporate. This leads to vapor pressure (Clausius – Clapeyron) Meteorites hit earth with roughly calculated frequency risk of extinction - 10 -8/yr Individual risk of Death - 5 x 10 -7/yr

Rare Nuclear Power accidents first studied by physicists Advisory Committee on Reactor Safeguards – Teller, Wigner, and Feynman Before 1970, only accidents less than the MAXIMUM CREDIBLE ACCIDENT were considered The landmark Reactor Safety Study (WASH 1400) in 1975 was chaired by a physicist (Rasmussen) Looked quantitatively at the extreme events (Low Probability; High Consequence) by a combination of EVENT TREES and FAULT TREES

First task: Define the problem. Next task: break it into manageable component parts factorizable as much as possible Nuclear Power was the first example

Simplified EVENT TREE for pipe break Rate of Pipe Breaks F 1 Probability of ECCS (SF) failure P 2 Probability of Containment Failure P 3 Probability of wind blowing to City P 4 IF INDEPENDENT Overall rate = F 1 x P 2 x P 3 x P 4 FAULT TREE can be used to estimate P 2, P 3, P 4

GOOD BAD F 1 P 2 P 3 P 4 1/10, 000 yr 1/100 yr 1/30 1/5 1/3 1/2 1/3 1/2 Overall 1/2. 7 million 1/2000

Are the probabilities coupled? A failure scenario which couples them is called a Common Mode Failure Fire or flood can couple the individual steps At Browns Ferry fire in a cable duct led to loss of control. (solution: use redundant cable ducts) The event tree enables us to focus on these correlations. Now every reactor has a detailed study (Jargon - Probabilistic Risk Analysis -PRA) It enables the analyst to find weak points. In the first PRA (Surry, VA) a simple change for about $50, 000 reduced the calculated accident probability by a factor of 5

Industries now using Event Tree Analysis 1975 Nuclear Power WASH 1400; NUREG 75/014 1978 LNG: Keeney et al Techn. Rev. 81: 64 1985 Oil refineries 1985 Chemical plants 2000 NASA 2 xxx Building Industry (not yet) Independence of steps not as easy as in nuclear power.

A saboteur can : take a nuclear engineering course work at a nuclear plant as a “sleeper” Then he can set off two bombs (1) To break a pipe and (2) open a containment hole (3) when the wind is blowing to a city If 6 terrorists act in concert it is easier

A saboteur (terrorist) can couple the different steps Rasmussen said in 1978: “There is nothing a terrorist can do that those clowns (operators at TMI ) did not do on their own”. My response: A terrorist can increase the probability! Especially a group of terrorists

World Trade Center 2001 Steel Frame buildings must have the beams insulated to stop bending in case of fire. The first steel buildings were more dangerous than wood ones. Insulation used: 1900 Concrete 1960 Asbestos incl. mineral wool 1970 Only mineral wool 2010 Maybe material used in nose cones? ? ? Who decides? Who knows? Examine FEMA report and later NIST report with jaundiced eyes What is missing?

At WTC beams and links bent. WHY? Was the insulation there? It was sprayed on dry, not wet. Did it stick? Did plumbers and electricians remove any? DOES ANYONE KNOW? The consequence of WTC collapse was more than 3000 deaths. It was a political change in the USA Will there be a full, publicly available, study including high consequence low probability scenarios before rebuilding?

Event Tree Analysis Imagine what a terrorist might do: and devise a system to make it hard for him to do it. Stop the event as early in the chain as possible (dont let trouble spots fester)

Suggested Event Scenario (1) Stop creation of terrorists (2) Keep weapons out of hands of terrorists (3) Keep potential terrorists away from sensitive places (4) Make ALL individual targets more secure Stop a scenario as early in the event chain as possible Fewer terrorists than targets!

What makes a terrorist? The organized Al Quaeda of 2001 no longer exists (Scott Atran) Now organization by internet Madrid bombing was a group from one area of Morocco terrorists are like ordinary people 2001 terrorists: educated. Not religious (Marc Sageman: “Leaderless Jihad”) Why more terrorist suspects in Europe than USA? Frustration with lack of integration? Watch internet grouping

Known Terrorist Groups with Assumed reasons for Frustration Tamil Tigers - Sri Lanka IRA - Ireland Hamas military wing - Palestine/Israel Hezbollah - Lebanon Basque separatists - Spain Taliban – NW Pakistan “If there is hope and you kill a terrorist you have one terrorist less If there is no hope and you kill a terrorist you have 10 terrorists more” (Israeli General: Also Yugoslav experience in WWII)

Some important Psychologists: Lord John Alderdice (Northern Ireland) Marc Sagerman (Interviews since 9/11) Scott Atran Baruch Fischoff (Case Western)

Step 2. Keep weapons out of the hands of terrorists Firearms are easily available. Even AK 57 s But Atomic Bombs? Biological material? Nerve gases?

Step 2 keep weapons out of the hands of terrorists. Only limited possibilities for ordinary weapons - including AK 47 s ESSENTIAL FOR NUCLEAR WEAPONS Not easy for chemicals or biological materials Important to prioritize “If you guard your toothbrushes as carefully as you guard your diamonds You will lose fewer toothbrushes but you will lose more diamonds!” JH Van Vleck (circa 1955)

Be careful with fissile material: IAEA records

Step 3. Keeping Terrorists at Arm’s length Make it hard to enter the US keeping terrorists away from facilities is where US is concentrating efforts Inevitably conflicts with liberty and human rights USSR system of closed areas – (Chelyabinsk, Sverdlovsk) no longer works

Step 3 Importance of Secrecy As in military matters: Strategic (long term issues) should be open Tactics (short term issues) should be on a “need to know” I know, in general, where to fly an airplane to destroy a nuclear power plant, (not the containment vessel)but on individual detail, I do not need to know

Step 4. Making Society Safer A Engineering and Industrial facilities Do not store a lot of fuel in one place near a lot of people in one place. (Wigner 1974) Oil tanks and LNG facilities should be in remote areas. (In 1848 London decided to keep Petroleum products 30 miles from London bridge in Canvey Island) Terrorism and Sabotage already considered for nuclear power. Look at every industry for high consequence scenarios

The following accidents happened naturally A terrorist can make them happen more often!

(1)Substation failure in Naperville ILL shut down landing system at O'Hare (and cut off my son's E mail) (2) Broken relay shut down NE electricity for 5 hours (1967) (3) Storm cut major transmission lines in France for 4 days (4) 1944 at Clapton Sands off duty US soldiers shot at insulators and shut down the line to Naval base (punishment was being sent to Utah Beach. . . ) IF: 20 terrorist sharp shooters each chose a transmission tower in a remote area and at noon each shot at an insulator MAYBE AT THE SAME TIME other terrorists release gunk in subway. . Anyone guess the consequence?

There are many more terrorists than there are dangerous facilities. BUT if the facilities are protected, a terrorist may do not do anything Physical protection be wary

Possible “easy” terrorist Actions Anthrax released in a high explosive bomb upwind of city can kill more people than a plutonium bomb Silver cyanide plating solution dumped in reservoir after filtration (possible in Oxford in 1949) Biological material released in subway

Emergency exits not used in USA Rhode Island Fire people did not use Fire protection, etc must be practiced. Andrea Doria in collision in calm weather in fog and sank in 3 hours 100 people died British troopship with families sunk in 1/2 hour engineer killed in explosion all others saved!

Step 4 – Making Life Safer B B Biological Processes Reducing Natural Epidemics also trains people to reduce the risk of biological terrorism 1919 Flu; 2005 SARS In disease spread there are 2 crucial numbers: (i) average number of people a single person infects ~ 2. 5 (ii) time between infections ~ 10 days

Act promptly to reduce (i) from 2. 5 to 0. 99 At least 60% of all people must cooperate (Successes - small pox; Wash hands Wear face mask especially infected people (Japan) Don't go to work/school or travel if fever Quarantine; need for societal agreement In community: radio temperature to central place to identify a cluster of high fever. Then start more drastic action promptly

1918 Influenza: the Mother of All Pandemics This is not emphasized by Public Health Professionals Jeffery K. Taubenberger and David M. Morens Armed Forces Institute of Pathology, Rockville, Maryland, USA; and National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, USA CDC Health Topics Vol. 12, No. 1 January 2006 Fails to emphasize the importance of immediate action.

Airline Pilots will now resist a hijacking Bar cockpit doors Maybe set to control from ground or automatic Use emergency exits regularly “The public may leave at the end of each performance by all exit doors and at that time the doors shall be open” Lord Chamberlain's regulations, UK Easy access to first aid boxes In a recent inspection in Boston, they were locked up and noone had the key!

Few plans for a major fire at WTC? (FEMA report instructive for what it missed out) Insulation not tested for durability Fire and initial impact destroyed all safety mechanisms (Common mode failure not foreseen!) Helicopter fire fighters? Protect buildings by cables from towers or balloons?

The crucial questions in terrorism is the coupling between the steps. A terrorist will choose to attack unprotected facilities and there are many

Crucial Importance of Readiness for Response If a terrorist knows that there will be a quick and intelligent response it will be less attractive

Inspect the insulation of all buildings over 50 stories high. (expensive but possible; e. g. apply a heat source to steel in one location and compare the temperature - time profile with calculation)

Anthrax in small amounts make only a local problem Irradiate all mail at sorting offices (Co 60 or Cs 137) Anthrax spores released in a small HE bomb up wind can kill more people than a hydrogen bomb poisoning water supplies? Emergency purification?

Some terrorists are now educated. Also some act in concert Sabotage and terrorism are unfortunate facts of life. They will be with us until the end of the human race.

We must not let terrorism distort our lives. Other risks are bigger. Car accidents: 45, 000/yr vs. 3, 500 once Drugs destroy society more Security vs. Freedom Our human rights are what makes life worth living.

“If you still want to belong to an organization dedicated to killing Americans, there’s always the tobacco lobby. ” Alex Gregory, Cartoonbank. com