Risk Analysis Proposal Suggestions Price and memory are

Risk Analysis Proposal Suggestions

Price and memory are of equal importance. Which thumb drive would you pick? Price Memory A B C $40 $20 $40 64 GB 32 GB 48 GB

Which thumb drive would you pick? Price Memory X Y Z $40 $25 64 GB 32 GB Sources : J. C. Musto, The Influence of the “Decoy Effect” on the Engineering Design Process, 2012 ASEE Conference proceedings, AC 2012 -5240 Wikipedia: Decoy Effect

Decoy effect says A and Y will be picked more often. A and Y are targets and C and Z are decoys. A B C $40 $20 $40 Memory 64 GB 32 GB 48 GB Price Memory X $40 64 GB Y $20 32 GB Z $25 32 GB Price

Engineering design is a decision making process • Select design solution from a set of alternative designs that meets performance specifications and is optimal • Similar alternatives could introduce a decoy effect and lead engineers to select a design that is better than similar alternatives but not the best overall • Decision matrix can effectively mitigate decoy effect

Risk Management - Analysis What could possibly go wrong here? Actual Product from 1946

How do we responsibly assess risk? • Risk assessment describes the nature and magnitude of a risk Risk Magnitude (Consequence/event) Frequency (# events/unit time) • Should you put a lightning rod on a lawnmower? – Low probability requirements could result in overdesign • How about “paper-cut-proof” paper? – High probability of occurrence could be perceived as negligence • Good designs have low risk

Cost-benefit analysis examines the cost of different alternatives to achieve a defined acceptable level of safety COMPANY Costs ($, lives, PR, etc…) CUSTOMER / PUBLIC Benefits ($, lives, PR, etc. . . ) Good designs have a low cost-benefit ratio.

The Ford Pinto is a good example of cost–benefit analysis. • $11/car to fix fuel system problem or a total of $137 M • National Highway Traffic Safety Administration estimated 180 accidents • Ford originally estimated $200 K/death or about $50 M for all of the accidents • What are the ethical implications here?

What factors should we take into account in risk management? Marketing / PR Schedule Technical Manufacturing Reliability

Come up with a risk plan to minimize risk to an acceptable level. It helps reduce the number of surprises later. Risk Level Actions to Minimize Fall Back Strategy Change in customer specification Moderate • Involve customer in process of • Add time to refining specifications schedule • Work with customer to estimate time • Additional budget and cost penalties of changes required Schedule delays High • Constantly track project progress • Build in safety time • Look for ways to accelerate activities • Re-allocate resources or staff Delays in order placement or delivery Moderate • Make sure parts are in stock • Build it yourself • Make sure purchasing department has • Drive to NJ and all needed information pick it up Product does not Low function as predicted • Test early and often • Be aware of risks of new technology • Alternative design • Different material, technology, etc Customer not satisfied • Understand the customer’s needs (voiced and non-voiced) • Work with sponsor to alleviate problem Moderate

Simple Risk Plan Example: A Travel Mug Risk Coffee spill in lap Scald mouth Cut lip on edge of cup Risk Level High Moderate Low Actions to minimize risk Fall Back Strategy Improve lid fit Change cup design Limit pot temperature Add note that coffee is hot Monitor quality of cup mfg. Change lid design

Likelihood An alternative risk management tool is the likelihood-consequence diagram. e d Negligence c b a Overdesign 1 2 3 4 Consequence 5 Often used in government/military project risk assessment. Usually accompanied by an actions table as shown on the previous slide.

What are some guidelines to use during risk analysis? Consequence Likelihood

Likelihood Simple Risk Plan Example: A Travel Mug e d Scald mouth A C c b a Cut lip on edge of mug Spill coffee in lap B 1 2 3 4 Consequence 5 A risk mitigation table would follow this diagram.

You should anticipate stupid use. Careless use is not grounds for absolving the manufacturer or engineer of liability "a common mistake that people make when trying to design something completely foolproof is to underestimate the ingenuity of complete fools. “ - Douglas Adams

There are other ways to minimize risk to the company. 1. 2. 3. 4. Tort or low caps on liability Insurance Voluntary Standards followed Gov’t Codes and Regulations followed How much is a human life worth? Risk-benefit and how much compensation for a life? 1992: $150, 000 – 70 -79 old single woman $2, 100, 000 – 30 -39 old married man Today: averages ~$6 -8 million MUST also consider engineering ETHICS when evaluating human life

Design by Committee and Scope Creep • http: //www. youtube. com/watch? v=Wac 3 a. Gn 5 twc

Constant communication with your project sponsor is critical “… two in five projects do not meet their original goals and business intent, and one-half of those unsuccessful projects are related to ineffective communications. ” - http: //www. pmi. org/learning/thought-leadership/pulse That’s 20% failure due to communication!

Proposal Pitfalls to Avoid

Proofreading, grammar, and spelling are critical. • Follow all requirements in last 2 pages of Report Template • Cut through the “BS”: – Each sentence and paragraph should have a specific purpose – Be precise and concise • Do not use first person or pronouns in a technical document – “He said we should use it. ” • One sentence does not constitute a paragraph • Sentences have defined structure – Nouns and verbs are required.

Proofreading, grammar and spelling are critical. • Use proper English. Your reader may be from another part of the country or world. – Do not use local slang in written reports. – “needs removed” “needs to be removed” • Do not use contractions in formal writing – “don’t” “do not” • Acronyms should be defined the first time used but only if the acronym is actually used later – “Nobody likes getting audited by the Internal Revenue Service (IRS). ” 22

Use the same format for all figures/tables. • Use MS Word’s “References”, “Insert Citation”, “Insert Caption”, and “Cross Reference” tools. • Do not use “tight” text wrapping around figures or tables. Set each figure on its own line with the caption centered below figures and above tables. • Use MS Word’s “Style” capabilities. If setup and used properly, these will save you frustration. • Do not insert tables as pictures in MS Word. They are not editable, come out looking blurry and are hard to read. 3/10/2021 23

Additional notes formal writing • If you include a reference in your “References” section, you need to cite it in the text. • Keep consistent unit system through the report – You can use multiple units with parentheses. – “The part was 25. 4 mm (1 in. ) long. ” – Always put the same unit system in parentheses. 24

Here is an example of a good figure and caption. No title if you have captions. It is redundant. Axes labeled with units if appropriate Fig. 1: Sound pressure background levels Figure number 25

Here is another example of a good figure and caption. Multi-part figure should have identifying letters Fig. 2: Photos of p-a vector sensors construction 26

Here is an example of a good table and caption. Caption is above the table Table 3 -2: Decay rate and reverberation parameters for ARL reverberation tank Headers have units Row/column shading can help to make table more readable 27