Richard A Muller UC Berkeley Richard A Muller

Richard A Muller UC Berkeley

since 1860 Richard A Muller UC Berkeley

monthly temperature Richard A Muller UC Berkeley

Ice Age Return? Richard A Muller UC Berkeley

Mann Stick Richard A Muller UC Berkeley

C-14 variations with time C-14 P. E. Damon and C. P. Sonett, Solar and terrestrial components of the atmospheric 14 C variation spectrum, in The Sun in Time, eds. C. P. Sonett, M. S. Giampapa and M. S. Matthews, University of Arizona Press, Tucson (1991). Richard A Muller UC Berkeley

Turkey Richard A Muller UC Berkeley

Mann Stick Richard A Muller UC Berkeley

A brief history of climate Richard A Muller UC Berkeley

Richard A Muller UC Berkeley Relative temperature (C) Isotopic variation 1865

Richard A Muller UC Berkeley Relative temperature (C) Isotopic variation 1850

Richard A Muller UC Berkeley Relative temperature (C) Isotopic variation 1835

Richard A Muller UC Berkeley Relative temperature (C) Isotopic variation 1800

Richard A Muller UC Berkeley Relative temperature (C) Isotopic variation 1750

Richard A Muller UC Berkeley Relative temperature (C) Isotopic variation 1700

Richard A Muller UC Berkeley Relative temperature (C) Isotopic variation 1650

Richard A Muller UC Berkeley Relative temperature (C) Isotopic variation 1600

Richard A Muller UC Berkeley Relative temperature (C) Isotopic variation 1400

Richard A Muller UC Berkeley Relative temperature (C) Isotopic variation 1200

1000 Isotopic variation Relative temperature (C) Richard A Muller UC Berkeley the “hockey stick”

Richard A Muller UC Berkeley Relative temperature (C) Isotopic variation 1000

Isotopic variation Relative temperature (C) Richard A Muller UC Berkeley 800 other records?

Richard A Muller UC Berkeley Relative temperature (C) Isotopic variation 500

Richard A Muller UC Berkeley Relative temperature (C) Isotopic variation 0

Richard A Muller UC Berkeley Relative temperature (C) Isotopic variation -500

Richard A Muller UC Berkeley Relative temperature (C) Isotopic variation -1000

Richard A Muller UC Berkeley Relative temperature (C) Isotopic variation -2 K

Richard A Muller UC Berkeley Relative temperature (C) Isotopic variation -4 K

Richard A Muller UC Berkeley Relative temperature (C) Isotopic variation -7 K

Isotopic variation Relative temperature (C) Richard A Muller UC Berkeley Agri begins. Why?

Richard A Muller UC Berkeley Relative temperature (C) Isotopic variation -9 K

Richard A Muller UC Berkeley Relative temperature (C) Isotopic variation -10 K

Richard A Muller UC Berkeley Relative temperature (C) Isotopic variation -11 K

Richard A Muller UC Berkeley Relative temperature (C) Isotopic variation -12 K

Richard A Muller UC Berkeley Relative temperature (C) Isotopic variation -14 K

Ice Age: glaciers & coast line Richard A Muller UC Berkeley Ice Age

Richard A Muller UC Berkeley Relative temperature (C) Isotopic variation -17 K

Richard A Muller UC Berkeley Relative temperature (C) Isotopic variation -20 K

40 Richard A Muller UC Berkeley Isotopic variation Relative temperature (C) -40 K 30 20 10 kiloyears BCE 0

60 Richard A Muller UC Berkeley Isotopic variation Relative temperature (C) -70 K 40 20 kiloyears BCE 0

80 Richard A Muller UC Berkeley Isotopic variation Relative temperature (C) -90 K 60 40 kiloyears BCE 20 0

Greenland O-18 -120 interglac 100 Richard A Muller UC Berkeley Isotopic variation Relative temperature (C) vostok deuterium 75 50 kiloyears BCE 25 0

-140 K 125 Richard A Muller UC Berkeley Greenland O-18 Isotopic variation Relative temperature (C) vostok deuterium 100 75 50 kiloyears BCE 25 0

250 Richard A Muller UC Berkeley Isotopic variation Relative temperature (C) -250 K 200 150 100 kiloyears BCE 50 0

300 Richard A Muller UC Berkeley Isotopic variation Relative temperature (C) -350 K 200 100 kiloyears BCE 0

Mann Stick Richard A Muller UC Berkeley

IPCC predictions Richard A Muller UC Berkeley

Technology Review articles Richard A Muller UC Berkeley

Steve Mc. Intyre and Ross Mc. Kitrick Monte Carlo results Richard A Muller UC Berkeley

NRC T(t) Richard A Muller UC Berkeley

So What? Richard A Muller UC Berkeley

C-14 variations Richard A Muller UC Berkeley

sunspots Richard A Muller UC Berkeley

Warming only since 1970? Richard A Muller UC Berkeley

CO 2 no offset Richard A Muller UC Berkeley

spectral windows Richard A Muller UC Berkeley

Greenhouse effect sunlight IR to space (Car in parking lot effect) atmosphere H 2 O, CO 2, O 3 Physics calculation: T increase by factor of about sqrt(2)) = 56 C = 100 F Earth Richard A Muller UC Berkeley

Warming only since 1970? Richard A Muller UC Berkeley

Cloud cover: the big unknown clouds Is cloud cover changing due to other effects -- either solar, or random, or …? 2% change in cloud cover would overwhelm human CO 2 Richard A Muller UC Berkeley

Radiative Forcings 2007 Richard A Muller UC Berkeley

Svensmark & Friis. Christensen Richard A Muller UC Berkeley

since 1860 Richard A Muller UC Berkeley

Warming only since 1970? Richard A Muller UC Berkeley

The direct effects of CO 2 on ocean acidity Acidify the Oceans? Richard A Muller UC Berkeley

Anecdotes Richard A Muller UC Berkeley

Berkeley 1885 Looking East on Durant. Steeple is 1 st Congregational Church at Durant & Dana. Berkeley snow Richard A Muller UC Berkeley

swim suits Richard A Muller UC Berkeley

Jan 31 2002 Larsen Ice 1 Larsen B Ice Shelf Richard A Muller UC Berkeley

Feb 17 Larsen Ice 2 Richard A Muller UC Berkeley

Feb 23 Larsen Ice 3 Richard A Muller UC Berkeley

March 5 Larsen Ice 4 1255 square miles 650 feet thick 720 billion tons Richard A Muller UC Berkeley

Amery Ice Richard A Muller UC Berkeley

Antarctica losing ice mass Antarctic Ice Sheet Losing Mass, According to CU-Boulder Study March 2, 2006 University of Colorado at Boulder researchers have used data from a pair of NASA satellites orbiting Earth in tandem to determine that the Antarctic ice sheet, which harbors 90 percent of Earth's ice, has lost significant mass in recent years. The team used measurements taken with the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment, or GRACE, to conclude the Antarctic ice sheet is losing up to 36 cubic miles of ice, or 152 cubic kilometers, annually. By comparison, the city of Los Angeles uses about 1 cubic mile of fresh water annually. "This is the first study to indicate the total mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet is in significant decline, " said Isabella Velicogna of CU-Boulder's Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, chief author of the new study that appears in the March 2 online issue of Science Express. The study was co-authored by CU-Boulder physics Professor John Wahr of CIRES, a joint campus institute of CU-Boulder and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The estimated ice mass in Antarctica is equivalent to 0. 4 millimeters of global sea rise annually, with a margin of error of 0. 2 millimeters, according to the study. There about 25 millimeters in an inch. The most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment, completed in 2001, predicted the Antarctic ice sheet would gain mass in the 21 st century due to increased precipitation in a warming climate. But the new study signals a reduction in the continent's total ice mass, with the bulk of loss occurring in the West Antarctic ice sheet, said Velicogna. Researchers used GRACE data to calculate the total ice mass in Antarctica between April 2002 and August 2005 for the study, said Velicogna, who also is affiliated with the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena. Richard A Muller UC Berkeley

“Here is an important point. If my classmate from sixth grade were to see this -- you remember, the guy who asked about South America and Africa [continental drift] - he would ask, “Did they ever fit together? n “The answer from the scientists would be, ‘Yes, they do fit together. ’ n “It’s a complicated relationship, but the most important part of it is this: When there is more CO 2 in the atmosphere, the temperature increases because more heat from the sun is trapped inside…. n “There is not a single part of this graph -- no fact, date, or number -- that is controversial in any way or is disputed by anybody. n “To the extent that there is a controversy at all, it is that a few people in some of the responsible coal, from “Anless Inconvenient Truth” byoil, Al and Gore utility companies say, ‘So n Carbon Dioxide and Temperature Inconvenient Truth CO 2 & T Richard A Muller UC Berkeley

CO 2 lags climate Temperature change precedes CO 2 change by 800 ± 200 yrs Richard A Muller UC Berkeley N. Caillon et al. , Science vol 299, 1728, 14 March 2003

Calculations by the Hadley Center for Climate Change, Met Office Greenland “Tony Blair's scientific advisor has said that because of what is happening in Greenland right now, the maps of the World will have to be redrawn. “If Greenland melted or broke up and slipped into the sea -- or if half of Greenland half of Antarctica melted or broke up and slipped into the sea, sea levels worldwide would increase by between 18 and 20 feet. Richard A Muller UC Berkeley Al Gore -- An Inconvenient Truth

Atlantic ocean circulation predicted to decline but not switch off Thermohaline Circulation Turn off? Richard A Muller UC Berkeley

Intense hurricanes Richard A Muller UC Berkeley

NOAA Annual Publication The Climate of 2006 Richard A Muller UC Berkeley

wildfires - both plots Richard A Muller UC Berkeley

tornadoes Richard A Muller UC Berkeley

Asian Soot Richard A Muller UC Berkeley

rainfall Richard A Muller UC Berkeley

since 1860 Richard A Muller UC Berkeley

Richard A Muller UC Berkeley

Hansen plot revised Richard A Muller UC Berkeley

Playing with dynamite We are adding enough CO 2 to the atmosphere that we need to worry. Richard A Muller UC Berkeley

What do we do? C 6 Conservation China Carbon Credits Clean Coal Richard A Muller UC Berkeley

World energy use Richard A Muller UC Berkeley (plot courtesy of Steve Koonin, BP)

oil forever Richard A Muller UC Berkeley (Chart courtesy of Steve Koonin, BP)

Richard A Muller UC Berkeley fuel market cost per k. Wh (1000 Cal) cost if converted to electricity coal $40 per ton 0. 6¢ 1. 8¢ natural gas $10 cost perof coal million cubic feet 3¢ 9¢ gasoline $3 per gallon 9¢ 27¢ electricity $0. 10 per k. Wh 10¢

The Kyoto Treaty The Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Legally binds industrialized nations to reduce CO 2 5% below 1990 emissions in next decade (29% real cut 2010) Richard A Muller UC Berkeley

The Kyoto Treaty The Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Legally binds industrialized nations to reduce CO 2 5% below 1990 emissions in next decade (29% real cut 2010) Ratified by 164 nations (US signed but didn’t ratify) Richard A Muller UC Berkeley

The Kyoto Treaty The Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Legally binds industrialized nations to reduce CO 2 5% below 1990 emissions in next decade (29% real cut 2010) Ratified by 164 nations (US signed but didn’t ratify) No restrictions on China or India Richard A Muller UC Berkeley

The Kyoto Treaty The Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Legally binds industrialized nations to reduce CO 2 5% below 1990 emissions in next decade (29% real cut 2010) Ratified by 164 nations (US signed but didn’t ratify) No restrictions on China or India US Senate Byrd-Hagel resolution: 95 -0 binding targets and timetables for developing nations Richard A Muller UC Berkeley

The Kyoto Treaty The Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Legally binds industrialized nations to reduce CO 2 5% below 1990 emissions in next decade (29% real cut 2010) Ratified by 164 nations (US signed but didn’t ratify) No restrictions on China or India US Senate Byrd-Hagel resolution: 95 -0 Richard A Muller UC Berkeley

The Kyoto Treaty The Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change China: currently building one new gigawatt coal power plant every week… plus two new gigawatt nuclear reactors per year. Richard A Muller UC Berkeley

China and India 21 st century emissions from the Developing World will surpass those of Industrialized World 2015 -2025 Developing world emissions growing at 2. 8% vs industrialized world growing at 1. 2% Sobering facts When Developing World carbon ≥ Industrial World carbon, each 10% reduction in industrial world emissions is overcome by < 4 years of developing world growth If China’s (or India’s) per capita emissions were those of Japan, global emissions would be 40% higher than today Richard A Muller UC Berkeley (Numbers courtesy of Steve Koonin, BP)

The Kyoto Treaty The Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change If global warming is caused by greenhouse emissions, and the US ratifies the treaty, then the temperature rise will be delayed by at most, a few years. Unless China and India agree to reductions, use non-yet existing conservation techniques, or sequester. Richard A Muller UC Berkeley

A Really Inconvenient Truth Large reserves of natural oil are recoverable at $50 -70 /bbl Fisher-Tropsch process allows diesel to be made from coal at about $40 -$50 bbl done by Nazis in WWII done by South Africa for last several decades We are not going to run out of fossil fuels! The future of global warming -- if human caused -- depends on China and India. Who will pay? Richard A Muller UC Berkeley

China CO 2 surpasses US CO 2 in 2007? China CO 2 surpassing US Richard A Muller UC Berkeley

IGCC integrated gas combined cycle Richard A Muller UC Berkeley

Energy flow Richard A Muller UC Berkeley

Global Warming a bigger issue: What is the proper role of scientists? … to analyze dispassionately and report without prejudice? � or … to spin the results to avoid the risk that the public will misinterpret or underestimate the dangers? Richard A Muller UC Berkeley

Richard A Muller UC Berkeley from An Inconvenient Truth by Al Gore

The trouble with most folks isn’t so much their ignorance -it’s known’ so many things that ain’t so. Josh Billings (a 19 th century humorist) Richard A Muller UC Berkeley

What do we do? C 5 Conservation Chinese Clean Coal Carbon Credits Richard A Muller UC Berkeley

Richard A Muller UC Berkeley

1998 was the warmest year on record! Is another cooling spell possible? Richard A Muller UC Berkeley

CO 2 for 550 Myr Rohde Richard A Muller UC Berkeley

65 Myr climate Rohde Richard A Muller UC Berkeley plot by Robert Rohde, Wikipedia

Richard A Muller UC Berkeley

sea level rise Richard A Muller UC Berkeley plot by Robert Rohde, Wikipedia

$Role of clouds High thin global fraction (%) High thick +10. 1 +8. 6$

Role of clouds High thin global fraction (%) High thick +10. 1 +8. 6 middle thin middle thick all low clouds Total +10. 7 +7. 3 +26. 6 +63 cloud numbers Forcing Albedo (W/m 2) -4. 1 -15. 6 -3. 7 -9. 9 -20. 2 -53. 5 Outgoing IR (W/m 2) +6. 5 +8. 6 +4. 8 +2. 4 +3. 5 +25. 8 Net forcing (W/m 2) 2. 4 -7. 0 +1. 1 -7. 5 -16. 7 -27. 7 Richard A Muller UC Berkeley c. f. insolation variations rms = 18 W/m 2

Havana 2003 (vs 1850) Havana Richard A Muller UC Berkeley