Revision 2014 Danish Major Revision And implementation of

Revision 2014 Danish Major Revision And implementation of ESA 2010

Structure of presentation • • Background Organisation ESA 2010 – conceptual changes First estimates of effect of conceptual changes

Background • New International guidelines for national accounts (SNA 2008) - Adopted by UN Statistical Commission in February 2009 • New European guidelines for national accounts (ESA 2010) - Negotiations for the time being, expected to be adopted end 2012

Background • All national accounts time series are open for revision • Not only conceptual changes (introduction of ESA 2010) • Other data- and methodological revisions are also made (according to existing guidelines, ESA 95)

Background • The major revision (Revision 2014) has two types of revisions: 1. Data and methodological changes 2. Conceptual changes (ESA 2010) • Important to distinguish effects from the two types of changes - Consideration for users (national and EU)

Organisation • Expected results - In September 2014, we can publish revised national accounts according to ESA 2010 - Distinguish between data- and methodological and conceptual changes for at least one year (2008) - Submit national accounts data according to ESA 2010 to Eurostat and national users - Documentation of results - Improved and standardised calculation systems

Organisation • The revision is organised as a project called ”Revision 2014” • The project is carried out by the National Accounts Division, Government Finance Division and Foreign Trade Division • There has not been established a separate unit • Normal production and publication rythm during the project

Organisation of Revision 2014 Steeringgroup Referencegroup Projectcoordinator Coordinationgroups Foreign Trade and Bo. P National Accounts Government Finance

Organisation • Role of Steering Group: - Make decisions regarding resources, timetables and methods - Meet once every month • Role of Reference Group: - Members are not directly involved, but have an interest in following the project - Meet two times every year

Organisation • Role of project coordinator - Coordinate sub-projects, that affect more than one division - Secretary for the Steering Group • Role of Coordination Groups - The practical side fx data-exchange, content of revisions, timetables - Chaired by project coordinator

Time schedule 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Preparation Data- og methods revision ESA 2010 implementation ESA-transmission programme Evaluation and publication

Organisation – Phase 1: Data- and methodological revisions • 1. 1 Identification, delimitation and decision of number of data- and methodological revisions • 1. 2 Implementation of revisions • 1. 3 Quality assurance • 1. 4. Evaluation of effect of data- and methodological revisions

Data- and methodological revisions (examples) • ”Simple” calculation errors • Incorporation of new sources in level and not just growth rates (dwellings) • Improvement of treatment of foreign affiliates in insurance

Organisation – Phase 2: Conceptual changes (ESA 2010) • 2. 1 Identification and delimitation of conceptual changes • 2. 2 Agreement of calculation methods • 2. 3 Incorporation of conceptual changes in the national accounts • 2. 4 Quality assurance • 2. 5 Evaluation of results of total conceptual changes

ESA 2010 - Conceptual changes (examples) • New guidelines for: - Military expenditures - Employers’ pension schemes - Goods for processing - Volume indicators for individual government consumption (fx health and education)

ESA 2010 – conceptual changes • Transmission of data to EU (Eurostat) - Earlier and more detailed sector accounts - Non-profit institutions serving households (NPISH) to be transmitted as a separate sector and not with households • Work still going on: - Research and development – to be capitalised? (in Denmark, yes) - FISIM – not yet an agreed method

Estimated effect of ESA 2010 on GDP and GNI Pct. in 2006 GDP GNI (1) Pension schemes 0, 01 (2) Research and 1, 80 development (3) Military expenditure 0, 05 1, 77 (4) Other 0, 34 -0, 42 0, 36 -0, 43 (5) Total 2, 20 -2, 27 2, 18 -2, 26 0, 05