Review of the 2010 Central Pacific Tropical Cyclone
- Slides: 13
Review of the 2010 Central Pacific Tropical Cyclone Season and Preliminary Verification National Weather Service Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu, Hawaii Raymond Tanabe Deputy Director, CPHC Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference 28 February 2011
La Nina Keeps Pacific Cool During the 2010 Tropical Cyclone Season
Tropical Storm Omeka December 20 -21 • Latest forming tropical cyclone in the central or eastern Pacific since reliable records began in 1949. • Started as a subtropical cyclone, transitioned into a tropical cyclone, then became extratropical. • 5 tropical cyclone forecast packages issued by CPHC.
2010 Central Pacific Tropical Cyclones Tropical Storm Omeka 20 -21 December West Pacific Central Pacific East Pacific
Tropical Storm Omeka 20 -21 December
Central Pacific Tropical Cyclone Season • Central Pacific Average per Year – 4 -5 Tropical Cyclones • 1970 to 2010: 175 Tropical Cyclones – 37% Hurricanes, 30% Tropical Storms, 33% Tropical Depressions
Central Pacific Tropical Cyclones 1970 -2010 80 68 70 60 50 43 37 40 30 17 20 10 r 2 be em De c em be r er ob Oc t No v Se pt em be r st gu ly Ju ne Ju ay ril 3 1 0 M ar M 1 Au Fe br ua ry y ar nu ch 0 0 Ja 1 Ap 2
Central Pacific Tropical Cyclones 1970 -2010 12 11 11 10 10 9 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 3 2 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 6 20 0 4 20 0 2 20 0 0 20 0 8 19 9 6 19 9 4 19 9 2 19 9 0 19 9 8 19 8 6 19 8 4 19 8 2 19 8 0 19 8 8 0 19 7 4 19 7 2 19 7 0 6 0 0 1 0 2 5 20 1 4 5 8 4 5 20 0 6 7
CPHC Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Five Year Running Mean Error 500 12 hour forecast 450 24 hour forecast 36 hour forecast 48 hour forecast 400 72 hour forecast 96 hour forecast 120 hour forecast 300 250 200 150 100 50 Year 10 20 08 20 06 20 04 20 02 20 00 20 98 19 96 19 94 19 92 19 90 19 88 19 86 19 84 0 19 Position Error (NM) 350
CPHC/FEMA L 324 Hurricane Preparedness Course
CPHC/FEMA L 324 Hurricane Preparedness Course
2010 CPHC/WFO Honolulu Musical Chairs • CPHC Deputy Director TWC – Dr. Rick Knabb moves to Atlanta • HFO WCM CPHC Deputy Director – Raymond Tanabe “promoted”? • WFO Caribou WCM HFO WCM – Honolulu welcomes Mike Cantin
Aloha !