Review of Recent Updates to Desert Renewable Energy

Review of Recent Updates to Desert Renewable Energy Conservation Plan: Implications for California’s Renewable Energy Future Emily Leslie 5/7/16

Description/Need • The Southern California Desert has been identified as an area that is rich with attractive renewable energy resources. • The purpose of this analysis is to review whether the amount of resource potential is enough to satisfy California’s 2030 renewable energy targets. • Then, once sufficiency is established, comparable level of attractiveness should be reviewed

Analytical Steps • Download and review 2014 and 2015 DRECP data • http: //www. drecp. org/finaldrecp/gis_files/ • Download and review Super. CREZ boundaries • https: //databasin. org/datasets/53 fcf 233 fe 4 b 476 faa 34 d 904 d 5 ca 3 f 0 a • Intersect 2014 DFAs with Super. CREZs • Intersect 2015 DFAs with Super. CREZs • Summarize total acres of developable land by Super. CREZ in map and table • Calculate developable renewable power capacity from square miles • Compare developable capacity to estimated 2030 demand

Super CREZs 2013 (Competitive Renewable Energy Zones) Total Area (sq mi) Riverside East 3331 Imperial North 1638 Imperial South 1142 SB Lucerne 3113 Tehachapi 4297 Victorville 1331 Super. CREZs are roughly defined areas with common shared electrical infrastructure Physical boundaries, not political boundaries Source: https: //databasin. org/datasets/53 fcf 233 fe 4 b 476 faa 34 d 904 d 5 ca 3 f 0 a

Desert Renewable Energy Conservation Plan Riverside East Imperial North Imperial South SB Lucerne Tehachapi Victorville Total Area That Falls Within DRECP (sq mi) Percent that falls within DRECP 3331 3280 98% 1638 1582 97% 1142 1060 93% 3113 1743 56% 4297 2678 62% 1331 100% Highlighted Super. CREZs are those with high levels of commercial interest/activity Tehachapi Victorville San Bernardino - Lucerne Riverside East Imperial North Imperial South Steps: Intersect Super. CREZ with DRECP boundary, and calculate overlapping area Source: http: //www. drecp. org/

2014 Development Focus Areas (Public and Private Lands) Super CREZ Riverside East Imperial North Imperial South SB Lucerne Tehachapi Victorville 2014 Development Focus Areas (sq mi) Percent of Super. CREZ 418 13% 647 41% 496 47% 286 16% 841 31% 240 18% Tehachapi Victorville San Bernardino - Lucerne Riverside East Steps: Intersect Super. CREZ within DRECP boundary with 2014 Development Focus Areas (DFAs), and calculate overlapping area Imperial North Imperial South

2015 Development Focus Areas (BLM Land Only) 2015 Development Focus Areas (sq mi) Riverside East 230 Imperial North 120 Imperial South 58 SB Lucerne 24 Tehachapi 42 Victorville 16 Percent of Super. CREZ 7% 8% 5% 1% Tehachapi Victorville 2% 1% San Bernardino - Lucerne Riverside East Steps: Intersect Super. CREZ within DRECP boundary with 2015 Development Focus Areas (DFAs), and calculate DFA area for each Super CREZ Imperial North Imperial South

Summary Riverside East Imperial North Imperial South SB Lucerne Tehachapi Victorville Total Area (sq mi) 2014 Development Focus Areas (sq mi) 2015 Development Focus Areas (sq mi) 3331 418 230 1638 647 120 1142 496 58 3113 286 24 4297 841 42 1331 240 16 Trends: • 2015 Development Focus Areas are much smaller than the 2014 areas • This is because 2015 DFAs are on public (BLM) lands only. Privately owned lands have been excluded from the analysis. • 2015 wind resource potential is greatly reduced from 2014 levels The original intent of DRECP was to accelerate development. Improvements to expedite BLM permitting process still needed, in order to achieve this goal. Tehachapi Victorville San Bernardino - Lucerne Riverside East Imperial North Imperial South

Renewable Net Short: ~15, 000 MW (depending on scenario) (this is the amount of new capacity needed to reach 50% renewable energy by 2030) Source: http: //www. cpuc. ca. gov/RPS_Calculator/ Conclusion Super CREZ Riverside East Imperial North Imperial South SB Lucerne Tehachapi Victorville Total 2014 Resource Potential (MW) 752 408 744 304 824 360 92 2015 Resource potential (MW) 26, 41, 31, 18, 53, 15, 187, 3 2015 Percent of RNS 14, 720 98% 7, 680 51% 3, 712 25% 1, 536 10% 2, 688 18% 1, 024 7% 31, 360 209% Tehachapi Victorville San Bernardino - Lucerne Even in the most constrained scenario, all of California’s 2030 renewable energy needs could be met with solar resources from Southern California BLM 2015 Development Focus Areas Riverside East Imperial North Imperial South

Further Conclusions • The same analytical approach may be applicable in the Central Valley and Northern California Transmission Assessment Focus Areas. Also in out-of-state regions. • One next step could be to develop refined capital cost and benefit estimates for these specific zones, as different from generic statewide estimates. • This iterative approach provides benefit of accuracy, precision, refinement, reflecting market changes over time

Closing Remarks • The high caliber environmental analysis which has gone into the DRECP and other similar studies will provide developers and investors with good snapshots of locations with likely ease of permitting. • Another next step would be to extend this high-caliber information to provide better coverage (many areas of the state have not yet been included), and with better consistency (multiple online mapping tools exist to provide the same or similar service; a winner has not yet emerged).