RETScreen A tool set for Sustainable Energy Feasibility
RETScreen – A tool set for Sustainable Energy Feasibility Decision Making Claverton Conference October 2009 Richard Hellen
Presentation content l l l l l Decision criteria Decision methods Decision process – Pre-Feasibility then Feasibility Speed vs. Accuracy of feasibility assessments Brief overview of a really good assessment package - RETScreen Good decisions depend on excellent communications Learning from Past Experience – case studies Learning from Future Experience – models that allow “what ifs” Demonstration of RETScreen
Decision Criteria - The 3 Es – Energy: Economy: Environment Energy Environment • % CO 2 reduction • % Energy reduction • Noxious Emissions • % Site energy demand • Reliability • Security / Flexibility Economics • • £/MWh heat/cool £/MWh electricity £/tonne CO 2 % IRR, Ro. I
Decision Methods l Simple single criterion – – l Often boils down to money (e. g. 1 t. CO 2 = £ 20 +? ) But good to see how this monetary value arises Multi criteria – – Use weightings for each criterion Can involve special criteria peculiar to the Client; e. g. l l Does the investment make a visible statement? Does it create sufficient local jobs (e. g. local wood supply)? Can the solution adapt to planned changes over the next 10 years? Specialist methods – Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP)
The Decision Process l There is a requirement to assess the commercial and environmental viability of any sustainable energy option l The pre-feasibility study is a high level assessment of the site. Namely, – – l is the site suitable and when does it payback (or does it meet other economic criteria)? The feasibility study proceeds on the basis that no insurmountable objections have been uncovered and that the economic returns are provisionally acceptable. The factors that have the biggest capacity to derail the project are tackled first so as to avoid unnecessary expense. Pre Feasibility RETScreen (more later) Detailed Technical Design Implementation and Project Management Post Implementation Support
Pre-Feasibility l Purpose - Assess the practical feasibility and likelihood of planning approval. l Technical appraisal - any barriers to installing the sustainable energy supply technology Social impact assessment – environmental impact. Assess location of the energy supply technology, plus any infrastructure or construction issues. Assessment of local energy resources. Analysis of site electrical and thermal loads to create a load profile. This produces, when compared with the energy supply technology output profile, an indication of the likely ratio of on -site consumption to export. Also existing costs and CO 2 emissions. Assessment of the economic and environmental benefit of different energy supply technology mixes and sizes - Optioneering. Assessment of potential energy supply technology composition scenarios to match site demand l l l l
Speed vs Accuracy of feasibility assessments l Better to quickly assess a wide range of options at an approximate level of accuracy than a few options at the nth degree of accuracy l Can save £ 1000 s of consultant’s time – we’re not cheap!
Overview of RETScreen Version 4 • Energy efficiency (EE) models for residential, commercial & institutional buildings, & for industrial facilities & processes • Climate database expanded to 4, 700 ground-stations & NASA Satellite Dataset Integrated within the software to cover populated areas across the entire surface of planet • Renewable energy, cogeneration & EE models integrated into one software file & emerging technologies, such as wave & ocean current power added • Project database providing users instant access to key data and information for hundreds of case studies & project templates • RETScreen file format ( *. ret) - a dramatically smaller file size (<25 KB instead of 10 MB) that is easily shared over the Internet & which allows the user to create custom databases for RETScreen • Software & databases translated into 30 languages that cover 2/3 of the world’s population, and available at the click of the mouse
Common Platform for Project Evaluation & Development
Project Analysis l Energy resource at project site (e. g. solar radiation) l Equipment performance (e. g. solar absorptivity) l Initial project costs (e. g. solar collectors) l “Base case” credits (e. g. conventional cladding) l Annual & periodic costs (e. g. vandalism) (Solar Air Heating Example)
Financial Analysis l Base case system energy cost – l (e. g. retail price of heating oil) Financing – (e. g. debt ratio & length, interest rate) l Taxes on equipment & income (or savings) l Environmental characteristics of energy displaced – l Environmental credits and/or subsidies – l (e. g. oil, natural gas, grid electricity) (e. g. GHG credits, deployment incentives) Decision-maker’s definition of cost-effective – (e. g. payback period, ROI, NPV, energy production costs)
Financing Options – Financial Engineering • • Natural gas 1, 000 m 3/yr @ $0. 40/m 3 25% energy reduction Capital cost $300, 000 2% inflation, 20 year project life
Project Example: Wind l l Basic information: – 2 off 2, 000 k. W wind turbine – Cost @ £ 2, 000/k. W – Capacity factor @ 23%? Avonmouth Wind Turbines
UK Wind data – NOABL database url: http: //www. bwea. com/noabl/ • use post code location • follow guidance on BWEA website • only useful for quick estimates • proper feasibility needs actual site data • energy produced ~ wind speed 3
Challenge the Presenter l Do you have a pet sustainable energy project you’d like me to demonstrate live? l We can make up the numbers as we go along – they can be surprisingly accurate. l Catch me outside the presentation sessions
Challenge yourself l Download RETScreen – free!! l Learn how to use it – I can run a workshop for you l Apply it to real projects l Tell your friends l Give me feedback
Summary l It is possible to quickly size up sustainable energy options – – – l l On both demand supply side Assess risks to the financial performance – impress the CFO Zone in on the ones requiring more than just a pre-feasibility study RETScreen is one of the best tools available to do this ( – in my opinion) Give me a call if you’d like me to help – – Tel: 05602 481279 Mobile: 07969 819505 E: richard@hermesenergyservices. com
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