Retails Good Year Accelerates Into the Third Quarter

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Retail’s Good Year Accelerates Into the Third Quarter § The grand total of $1.

Retail’s Good Year Accelerates Into the Third Quarter § The grand total of $1. 52 trillion in Q 3 2018 unadjusted retail and food services sales, which includes motor vehicles, parts and gasoline stations, increased 5. 3%, essentially repeating the increase for the first half of 2018, which was 5. 4%. § Total unadjusted retail sales and food services for Q 3 2018, excluding motor vehicles, parts and gasoline stations, increased 5. 1%, to $1. 06 trillion, compared to a 4. 9% increase during the first half of 2018. § Total adjusted Q 3 2018 retail e-commerce sales were $130. 9 billion, increasing 3. 1% from Q 2 2018 and 14. 5% from Q 3 2017, and were 9. 8% of all Q 3 retail sales.

With the Support of an Energized Economy § Since consumer spending accounts for 68%

With the Support of an Energized Economy § Since consumer spending accounts for 68% of the GDP, it has to perform well for retail sales to generate positive numbers; and the GDP contributed its part by increasing at a 3. 5% annual rate during Q 3 2018, 0. 1% more than the Dow Jones forecasted. § The job market also continued to contribute to an improving economy, although the nonfarm employment total of 492, 000 for Q 3 wasn’t as many as Q 2 2018’s 600, 000; however, the unemployment rate decreased from 4. 0% to 3. 7%. § The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index® increased from 127. 4 for July to 133. 4 for August to 138. 4 for September. The Present Situation Index increased to 173. 1 from August’s 172. 8 and the Expectations Index increased to 115. 3 from 109. 3.

July’s Performance Was an Excellent Start to the Quarter § Based on the seasonally

July’s Performance Was an Excellent Start to the Quarter § Based on the seasonally adjusted US Census Bureau data (including motor vehicles and gas stations), July 2018 retail sales increased 6. 2% YOY and 0. 5% from June. § Although sales and traffic at physical stores declined from July 2017, or -2. 1% and -4. 7%, according to Retail. Next’s Retail Performance Pulse Report, both metrics were much better than any month of Q 1 and Q 2. § Regionally, the Midwest had the “best” negative sales performance, at -1. 7%, and traffic, -2. 0% YOY while the Northeast had the worst performance, with sales -8. 2% and traffic -8. 5%.

August Continues the Robust Growth § August’s total retail sales (seasonally adjusted and including

August Continues the Robust Growth § August’s total retail sales (seasonally adjusted and including motor vehicles and gas stations) were $461. 4 billion, a 6. 1% YOY increase and a 3. 3% MOM increase. § With back-to-school shopping in full swing during August, many associated retail categories recorded YOY increases; however, sales at sporting goods stores (NAICS 45111) decreased 4. 9%. § Retail. Next reported store-based sales were 5. 2% and traffic -5. 4% YOY.

September Cools a Hot Quarter § September’s total retail sales of $424. 2 billion

September Cools a Hot Quarter § September’s total retail sales of $424. 2 billion (seasonally adjusted and including motor vehicles and gas stations) generated a 2. 1% YOY increase, but 8. 0% less than August’s. § Removing motor vehicles and gas stations from the total created some improvement, with a net total of $326. 2 billion, 3. 6% more than September 2017 and -7. 0% MOM. § Retail. Next’s physical-store data certainly reinforces the sluggish September sales, as sales were -7. 6%, equaling the worst monthly performance of the year (March), and traffic’s 7. 1% was the worst since April’s -7. 8%.

More Than 3, 800 Net New Stores During 2018 § Despite the constant drumbeat

More Than 3, 800 Net New Stores During 2018 § Despite the constant drumbeat of a “retail apocalypse, ” 3, 835 more retail stores will open than close during 2018, according to the IHL Group’s August 2018 report, Retail’s Radical Transformation/Real Opportunities. § The concern with e-commerce sales “decimating” brick-and-mortar sales still remains generally unfounded. Pure-play e-commerce (online retail only) represented 25% of total retail sales during the first 7 months of 2017, but 18. 7% for the same 2018 period. § All e-commerce (pure-play and store-based) is approximately 19% of all retail sales, but IHL’s forecast is 25. 7% by 2021; however, 81% of all ecommerce will still involve stores and much of the 25. 7% will be click and collect, buy online pickup at stores, etc.

Advertising Strategies § Although Q 3 2018 has passed, share this Profiler with your

Advertising Strategies § Although Q 3 2018 has passed, share this Profiler with your prospects and clients and explain that it is a good place to start developing their Q 3 2019 campaigns, promotions and advertising. It’s never too early to plan. § To counter any confusion among consumers about a “retail apocalypse, ” recommend local retailers create bigger-than-normal promotional events for any new store openings during 2019. § To help boost Q 1 2019 store traffic and sales, local retailers may want to promote a “Thank You, Loyal Customers” event for making the purchases that made 2018 such a good year for retailers, especially if the holiday season generates the large revenues forecasted.

New Media Strategies § As click and collect, buy online pick up stores and

New Media Strategies § As click and collect, buy online pick up stores and similar services continue to resonate with consumers, 2019 is the year more local and smaller retailers must seriously consider adding these services as well as local deliveries. § Suggest retailers use their Website, social media and email campaigns during January to share what new products and services and any expansion they plan for 2019. Consumers receive a coupon for a new product when signing up for the store’s email list. § Promote general optimism among your customers and the public, based on the NFIB and Wells Fargo/Gallup optimism indices with social media posts, etc. Ask a mental health professional to comment. Ask people to share what they do to remain optimistic.