Resilient Nature Resilient People A Strategy for Coping

Resilient Nature, Resilient People A Strategy for Coping with Climate Change in Tropical Seas United Nation Climate Change Conference Bali 2007

Increasing sea temperature Projection: 2 -4 °C rise by 2100 (IPCC 2007) Impacts: Corals • Mass bleaching • Disease Mangroves • Some species - impaired growth, photosynthesis Seagrasses • “Burn” and die • Impaired reproduction/growth • Algal overgrowth

Increasing sea level Projection: 0. 18 -0. 59 m rise by 2100 (IPCC 2007) 1 m rise by 2100 (Rahmstrof 2007) Impacts: Corals • Growth rate possibly adequate to keep up Mangroves • Erosion, flooding • Drown unless can move inland or have adequate silt supply Seagrasses • Increased water depth = lower light, productivity

Increase in storm intensity Projection: Increase in intensity (IPCC 2007) Impacts: Corals • Break or move corals • Redistributed sediments smother corals Mangroves • Erosion, flooding, drowning Seagrasses • Erosion • Redistributed sediments smother seagrasses

Increasing acidification Projection: 35% increase in atmospheric CO 2 since 1880 s (Kleypas) Recent evidence suggests oceans may be saturated Impacts (if further acidification a reality): Corals • Decreased calcification and growth rates • Reef erosion • Algal overgrowth Mangroves • Increased CO 2 may enhance photosynthesis/growth Seagrasses • Enhanced photosynthesis, growth • Algal overgrowth

Consequences for People Loss of livelihood • • • Loss of fishing grounds Loss of valuable species Loss of timber Decreased value of reefs for tourism • Loss of jobs and income Loss of coastal protection • • Storm damage, flooding Loss of life, personal injury Health risks Cost of coastal defenses Loss of ecosystem services = $31, 373/sq. km/year Cost in coastal defenses = $250, 000 -15 million/km of coastline