Research Findings for the Electricity Sector of the

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Research Findings for the Electricity Sector of the USA, the West, and California Trieu

Research Findings for the Electricity Sector of the USA, the West, and California Trieu Mai, Ph. D. California Energy Commission IEPR Workshop Sacramento, CA July 24, 2015 NREL is a national laboratory of the U. S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC.

Outline NREL modeling capabilities Summary findings from 3 studies 1. Renewable Electricity Futures Study

Outline NREL modeling capabilities Summary findings from 3 studies 1. Renewable Electricity Futures Study (REFS) 2. Western Wind and Solar Integration Studies (WWSIS) 3. Low Carbon Grid Study (LCGS) 2

Models developed or run at NREL • Regional Energy Deployment System (Re. EDS) model

Models developed or run at NREL • Regional Energy Deployment System (Re. EDS) model – long-term (2050) national capacity expansion • Resource Planning Model (RPM) – regional 10 -20 year IRP-type planning tool • PLEXOS – commercial production cost model (developed by Energy Exemplar) 3

Renewable Electricity Futures Study www. nrel. gov/analysis/re_futures RE generation from technologies that are commercially

Renewable Electricity Futures Study www. nrel. gov/analysis/re_futures RE generation from technologies that are commercially available today, in combination with a more flexible electric system, is more than adequate to supply 80% of total U. S. electricity generation in 2050—while meeting electricity demand on an hourly basis in every region of the country. 4

REFS: All regions of the country could contribute substantial renewable electricity supply in 2050

REFS: All regions of the country could contribute substantial renewable electricity supply in 2050 80% RE-ITI scenario 5

REFS: Incremental cost associated with high RE generation is comparable to published cost estimates

REFS: Incremental cost associated with high RE generation is comparable to published cost estimates of other clean energy scenarios 2014 updated scenarios • • 80% RE scenarios are estimated to have similar incremental cost compared with EIA and EPA scenarios that have similar levels of carbon emission reductions (75 -80%) With updated technology costs, fossil fuel price projections, and retirements, incremental costs for 80% RE are estimated to be lower 6

Western Wind and Solar Integration Study www. nrel. gov/electricity/transmission/western_wind. html • Phase 1 –

Western Wind and Solar Integration Study www. nrel. gov/electricity/transmission/western_wind. html • Phase 1 – Can we integrate high penetrations of wind and solar (e. g. 35%) into the Western Interconnection? • Phase 2 – What is the impact of 33% wind and solar on the fossil fuel plant cycling and emissions? • Phase 3 – How do high penetrations of inverter -based generation resources like wind and PV solar affect system reliability in the first minute after a large disturbance? 7

WWSIS-2: Focus on fossil-fuel unit cycling 8

WWSIS-2: Focus on fossil-fuel unit cycling 8

WWSIS-2: Emissions impacts of cycling are relatively small 9

WWSIS-2: Emissions impacts of cycling are relatively small 9

WWSIS-3: Frequency Response 1 2 3 Light Spring Base Light Spring High Mix Light

WWSIS-3: Frequency Response 1 2 3 Light Spring Base Light Spring High Mix Light Spring Extreme 3 1 2 With good system planning, sound engineering practices, and commercially available technologies, the Western Interconnection can withstand the crucial first minute after grid disturbances with high penetrations of wind and solar on the grid. Even at extreme levels of wind and solar, performance meets criteria - Interconnection frequency response > 840 MW/0. 1 Hz threshold in all cases. No under-frequency load shedding (UFLS). Disturbance: Trip 2 Palo Verde units (~2, 750 MW) 10

Low Carbon Grid Study for California http: //lowcarbongrid 2030. org The California 2030 Low

Low Carbon Grid Study for California http: //lowcarbongrid 2030. org The California 2030 Low Carbon Grid Study is a modeling effort that explores the ability of California’s electricity system to cost-effectively support deep emissions reductions by the year 2030. • Phase 1 – study results available on website • Phase 2 – ongoing, to be published soon California’s electric sector can cut its carbon footprint in half by 2030 with minimal rate impact, minimal curtailment of renewable energy, and without compromising reliability. 11

LCGS: Renewable portfolios in each case Load: 321 TWh RE: 179 TWh CEC “High

LCGS: Renewable portfolios in each case Load: 321 TWh RE: 179 TWh CEC “High Mid” EE 3. 5 GW new storage Load: 341 TWh RE: 125 TWh CEC “Mid” EE 1. 5 GW new storage Baseline Case is similar to LTPP 2014 33% Case • Has higher penetration of rooftop PV (24 TWh in LCGS compared to 7. 7 TWh in LTPP) • Higher overall load (and higher PV penetration to make up RPS energy short) Target Case • Many variants modeled with different RE portfolios and system flexibility 12

LCGS: Significant California CO 2 emissions reductions for all “Target” (55% RE) cases Carbon

LCGS: Significant California CO 2 emissions reductions for all “Target” (55% RE) cases Carbon emissions assigned to CA (MMT) - 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Baseline BAU Baseline High West Penetration Target BAU Target High West Penetration Target BAU with locked DA import schedules Target BAU with no 70% Import Requirement Target BAU with no 25% local gen requirement Target BAU with additional Storage / DR Target High Solar BAU Target High Solar Target with 70% OOS RE Import Requirement Target with 25% local generation requirement Total 2013 CA emissions = 459 MMT 2013 CA electricity sector emissions (in-state generation + imports) = 91 MMT 13

LCGS: Most target scenarios are estimated to yield >$4 billion in annual production cost

LCGS: Most target scenarios are estimated to yield >$4 billion in annual production cost savings Production cost reduction compared to Baseline (million $/yr) (1, 000) - 1, 000 2, 000 3, 000 4, 000 5, 000 6, 000 Baseline BAU Baseline High West Penetration Target BAU Target High West Penetration Target BAU with locked DA import schedules Target BAU with no 70% Import Requirement Target BAU with no 25% local gen requirement Target BAU with additional Storage / DR Target High Solar BAU Target High Solar Target with 70% OOS RE Import Requirement Target with 25% local generation requirement Total production cost assigned to CA = $12. 7 B in the Baseline Capital cost impacts analysis (JBS Energy, Inc. ) will be included in final study report 14

LCGS: The amount of renewable curtailment is most sensitive to system flexibility Curtailment 0%

LCGS: The amount of renewable curtailment is most sensitive to system flexibility Curtailment 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% Baseline BAU Baseline High West Penetration Target BAU Target High West Penetration Target BAU with locked DA import schedules Target BAU with no 70% Import Requirement Target BAU with no 25% local gen requirement Target BAU with additional Storage / DR Target High Solar BAU Target High Solar Target with 70% OOS RE Import Requirement Target with 25% local generation requirement Marginal curtailment rates can be higher 15

Additional References • Re. EDS: www. nrel. gov/analysis/reeds • RPM: Mai et al. (2015).

Additional References • Re. EDS: www. nrel. gov/analysis/reeds • RPM: Mai et al. (2015). Implications of Model Structure and Detail for Utility Planning: Scenario Case Studies Using the Resource Planning Model - www. nrel. gov/docs/fy 15 osti/63972. pdf • PLEXOS: Demand Response: Hummon et al. (2014). Grid Integration of Aggregated Demand Response… www. nrel. gov/docs/fy 14 osti/58492. pdf o Storage: Denholm et al. (2013). The Value of Energy Storage for Grid Applications - www. nrel. gov/docs/fy 13 osti/58465. pdf o Eastern Renewable Grid Integration Study (ERGIS) www. nrel. gov/electricity/transmission/eastern_renewable. html o High Performance Computing: Barrows et al. (2014). Time Domain Partitioning of Electricity Production Cost Simulations www. nrel. gov/docs/fy 14 osti/60969. pdf o Thank you. trieu. mai@nrel. gov 16