Republic hydrometeorological service of Serbia www hidmet gov

Republic hydrometeorological service of Serbia www. hidmet. gov. rs www. meteoalarm. rs 1 RHMS OF SERBIA HYDRO-METEOROLOGICAL WARNING SYSTEM Slobodan Sovilj slobodan. sovilj@hidmet. gov. rs

Republic hydrometeorological service of Serbia Legislative framework • Law on meteorological and hydrological activities (“Official Gazette of RS”, No. 88/10), • Law on Emergency Situations (“Official Gazette of RS”, No. 111/09), • Water Law (“Official Gazette of RS”, No. 30/10). RHMSS – Center for hyd-met early warning and alerts is primary national authority and official source for issuing warning and alerts Responsibility: early warning and alerts on the hydrometeorological hazards 2

Republic hydrometeorological service of Serbia Basic components of hydrometeorological early warning system • Meteorological and Hydrological observing system • Analytical – forecasting system • Computing - telecommunication system 3

Republic hydrometeorological service of Serbia Meteorological Observing System • Main met stations • AMS 28 30 • Climatological program 66 • Precipitation program 650 • Air quality and precipitation chemistry program 25 • Radioactivity program 8 • Upper air observations 1 • Phenological program 52 • Soil Moisture 4 4

Republic hydrometeorological service of Serbia Numerical Operational Models in use 5

Republic hydrometeorological service of Serbia The process of forming announcements and warnings Criteria and thresholds: Climatological extremes Impacts on activities and properties Damages caused by severe event Warning degree: No serious event Potentially serious event WARNING Serious event Extreme event Advices concerning the event (before, during, after) Hydrometeorological support after the event The example for wind speed No serious event < 17 m/s Potentially serious event<24 m/s Serious event < 28 m/s Extreme event >28 m/s 6

Republic hydrometeorological service of Serbia Meteo. Alarm and Hydro. Alarm are the core of Hydro. Meteorological Warning System. Colour coded map in combination with special symbols for dangerous meteorological elements and phenomena provides a quick overview forecast of dangerous meteorological elements and phenomena. For the universality of weather warning system we use the logic of European Meteo. Alarm with the same graphic and colour symbols. Four levels of risk are identified. Each colour represents one level of the risk. Green - no risk, Yellow - the weather is potentially dangerous, Orange - the weather is dangerous and Red - the weather is very dangerous. 7

Republic hydrometeorological service of Serbia Warnings and forecasts on the WEB Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia: www. hidmet. gov. rs Meteoalarm: www. meteoalarm. rs and www. meteoalarm. eu Regional Climate Change Center: www. seevccc. rs 8

Republic hydrometeorological service of Serbia Phenomena and dissemination q Extremely (in the cases of severe weather event) - warnings for: Emergency services (services for monitoring and notification) Ø Ministry of Internal Affairs, Department for Protection and Rescue Ø Serbian Government, Ø Media (radio and TV stations) Ø Local authority and public utilities Ways of notification: on briefing, by fax (special bulletins), by phone, by E-male, Website, FTP, SMS. Ø 9

Republic hydrometeorological service of Serbia Bulletin for Sector for emergency management • Operational Bulletin - early warning and forecast for next 5 days & general forecast for D+6 to D+10 - Country level; • Bulletin of warning - warning for currently day and tomorrow – RegionsDistricts level and • Warning - warning for next 2 -6 hours - Districts level Serbia = 11 Regions or 29 Districts The meteorological warning system is compatible with Meteoalarm – phenomena and level of awareness (www. meteoalarm. rs, www. meteoalarm. eu ) 10

Republic hydrometeorological service of Serbia Operational hydrometeorological bulletin • Meteorological data from main meteorological stations • Weather forecast and alerts for five days ahead and general forecast for ten days ahead. • Monthly weather forecast • Seasonal weather forecast • Observed hydrological data • Hydrological forecast and warnings 11

Republic hydrometeorological service of Serbia Weather forecast with warning and level of awareness Date Forecast Warning/Probability of weather phenomena 13. 02. 2012. Monday Cloudy with snow. Becoming mostly cloudy and dry in western and southwestern part at first from the middle of the day. Northwesterly wind light to moderate. Minimum temperatures between -11°С and -7°С, maximum from -7°С to -2°С. Minimum temperature less than -10°C. The weather is dangerous. Very cold and mostly dry. Light snow on hills. Minimum temperatures from -16°С to 10°С, locally -20°С, maximum between -8°С and -4°С. Minimum temperature less than -15°C. The weather is very dangerous. 14. 02. 2012. Tuesday 15. 02. 2012. Wednesday 16. 02. 2012. Thursday 80% Becoming increasingly cloudy and windy with snow in the north at first. Over others part of country during the day. Blizzard and snow causes in southeastern part and on hills and mountains. Minimum temperatures between -12°С and -5°С, locally -15°С, maximum temperatures from -3°С to +2°С. Cloudy and windy with snow, especially on hills and mountains with blizzard and snow causes. Northwest wind moderate to strong. Minimum temperatures from -11°С to 5°С, maximum temperatures between -3°С and +1°С. Minimum temperature less than -15°C. The weather is very dangerous. 80% Minimum temperature less than -10°C. The weather is dangerous. 70% Gust wind ≥ 17 m/s (≥ 60 km/h). The weather may be hazardous. 70% 17. 02. 2012. Friday Cloudy and windy with snow, especially on hills and mountains with blizzard and snow causes. Northwest wind moderate to strong, becoming light to moderate by evening. Minimum temperatures between -10°С and -5°С, maximum temperatures from -5°С to 0°С. Minimum temperature less than -10°C. The weather is dangerous. 70% Gust wind ≥ 17 m/s (≥ 60 km/h). The weather may be hazardous. 70% Forecast for next five days (from 18. 02. 2012. to 22. 02. 2012) Remaining with light snow at times in the north and on hills and mountains on Saturday. Otherwise dry with morning frost and possibility of fog mainly in a valley. Daytime temperatures slightly increasing and becoming above zero. Wind light to moderate backing South to Southeast. Snow cover will start to melt, particularly in western part of Serbia. 12

Republic hydrometeorological service of Serbia Impacts according of warning and level of awareness Minimum temperature less than -10°C: A very dangerous weather situation when continues for several consecutive days. Endangered lives of people and animals, problems in thermal and electric power supply, road and river traffic problems, forestry damages, problems in civil engineering construction works and damages of other weather dependent sectors of economy. Minimum temperature less than -15°C: Extreme dangerous weather situation when continues for several consecutive days. Endangered lives of people and animals (high risk of body cooling, frostbites or even death), problems in thermal and electric power supply, road and river traffic problems, forestry damages and damages of other weather dependent sectors of economy. Gust wind ≥ 17 m/s (≥ 60 km/h): Possible damage of properties, problems in transportation (cars veer on road), forest damage, damage of trees in parks and individual trees (some twigs broken from trees, some branches break off trees), problems in civil engineering construction works - especially works with cranes, indirect impact on the safety of people and animals, makes already existing dangerous security situations more complicated (forest and other fires, environmental disasters, disturbance of rescue actions). Impacts apply to facilities built of hard materials, facilities that are well maintained on healthy trees and the 13 like.

Republic hydrometeorological service of Serbia Water level forecast warning River Hydrological forecast Warning Dunav Danube water level will be in stagnation to the end of the period Currently no warnings Tisa water level will be in stagnation to the end of the period Currently no warnings Banatski vodotoci Water level on the Banat streams will be in stagnation until the end of the second decade of February and than in slight increase Currently no warnings Sava water level will be in stagnation and small increase until the end of the second decade of February and than in slight increase Currently no warnings Drina water level will be in stagnation until the end of the second decade of February and than in slight increase Currently no warnings 14

Republic hydrometeorological service of Serbia Ice forecast with ice defense level River Sum of negative daily mean air temperature for the period until 17. February 2012. Ice defense level Dunav On Danube from Bezdan to Prahovo will be in range from -1520 С to -1600 С Extraordinary ice defense Tisa On Tisa to -1880 С Extraordinary ice defense Velika Morava On Velika Morava to -1980 С Extraordinary ice defense Banatski vodotoci On Banat streams to -1840 С Extraordinary ice defense Sava On Sava to -1950 С Extraordinary ice defense Ice forecast until 17. February 2012. Retain the existing appearance of the ice with an increase of the ice thickness and density of floating and stationary ice. Ice forecast from 18. to 22. February 2012. During that period we will have retain of the existing ice conditions. WARNING: The following ten days ice phenomena on rivers will be retained, with the increase in the percentage of coverage of water ice and mirrors with increasing thickness of the ice. This phenomenon can be dangerous for the hydro facilities. Boating on the river was stopped. In the next seven days there are no conditions for floods in Serbia. From 20 February 2012 it is expected slight water levels rise due to the gradual melting of snow. 15

Republic hydrometeorological service of Serbia Bulletin of warning Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia Center for hydrometeorological system of early warning and alerts WARNING OF IMPACTS EXTRAORDINARY OR HAZARD PHENOMENA For Sector of emergency management Date issuing: May 03. 2013. Validity period from: 00: 00 May 04. 2013 to: 00 May 05. 2013. Region District Backa Srem Severno Backi Zapadno Backi Juzno Backi Severno Banatski Srednje Banatski Јужно Банатски Sremski Belgrade city West Serbia Macvanski Kolubarski Sumadijski Banat Sumadia Pomoravlje East Serbia Southeast Serbia Podunavski Branicevski Pomoravski Borski Zajecarski Rasinski Nisavski Toplicki Pirotski Jablanicki Level of awareness Phenomena The weather is potentially dangerous Wind gusts over 17 m/s The weather is very dangerous Wind gusts over 28 m/s The weather is potentially dangerous The weather is dangerous Wind gusts over 17 m/s Wind gusts over 24 m/s No phenomena No awareness The weather is potentially dangerous Wind gusts over 17 m/s No phenomena No awareness 16

Republic hydrometeorological service of Serbia Warning massages WARNING Time of issuing: DD. MM. YYYY hh: mm Period of duration phenomena, Region/District and Phenomena For more information visit www. meteoalarm. rs Forecaster: Name and Surname phone: +381 11 2542 184 Warning Time of issuing May 22, 2013 14: 50 In the next hour hailstorm with gusty winds in Sumadija district will move toward the west, in Pomoravski district, and then becomes weak. For more information visit www. meteoalarm. rs Forecaster: Slobodan Sovilj Phone: +381 11 2542 184 17

Republic hydrometeorological service of Serbia 18

Republic hydrometeorological service of Serbia Activities of RHMSS during forest fires FWI index on www. hidmet. gov. rs Forecast weather conditions forest fire www. meteoalarm. rs/ciril/fwi_p. php Bulletin forecast weather conditions • For forest fires • For Serbia and Balkan peninsula Extraordinary Bulletin forecast weather conditions • Area affected by fire • Every day during forest fires Weather forecast by SMS • Area affected by fire • Every day during forest fires 19

Republic hydrometeorological service of Serbia Extreme meteorological and hydrological events during 2012. Cold wave, snow cover and ice river on February 2012. Heat wave, fires forest and drought 20

Republic hydrometeorological service of Serbia Emergence situation in Serbia, February 2012 Ice on rivers 21

Republic hydrometeorological service of Serbia Emergence situation in Serbia, February 2012 In Belgrade woman was killed by Icicles. Icicle of 300 kg weight was fallen from the roof into apartment. 22

Republic hydrometeorological service of Serbia Cold wave from 29. January to 15. February 2012. Snow cover in Serbia was from 60 cm (lowlandscapes) to 150 cm (Mountain regions). Snowdrift was from 2 m to 3 m. 23 In the eastern and central parts of the continent in the period from 5 th to 11 th February temperature was in average 9°C lower than multi annual average, and maximum daily temperature did not exceed -15°C

Republic hydrometeorological service of Serbia The Serbian government declared an emergency situation Official Gazette of the Republic of Serbia No 9 from February 5 th 2012 The meeting of the Republican Headquarters for Emergency Situations 24

Republic hydrometeorological service of Serbia Summer 2012. - Heat waves Summer 2012. – One of the warmest Heat waves: 16. - 24. June, 29. June – 15. July and 19. - 26. August At some stations exceeded the historical max. number of tropical days and nights. Consequences: high to extreme (agro-meteorological and hydrological) drought, numerous forest fires (July-August) 25

Republic hydrometeorological service of Serbia Summer 2012. - Heat waves and drought SEEVCCC seasonal forecast of mean temperature and precipitation anomalies for the Jun-July-August 2012 season, published on April 1, 2012 The RCM model from RHMSS/SEEVCCC signalled a very warm summer and precipitation deficit as early as in April. Therefore, climate watch and heat waves and drought warnings were issued by RHMSS MHEWS services timely. 26

Republic hydrometeorological service of Serbia Summer 2012. – Drought 29. 07. 2012. 16. 09. 2012. Moisture conditions in Serbia estimated on the basis of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). 27

Republic hydrometeorological service of Serbia Summer 2012. – Forest fires In 2012. observed 18. 115 fires. Number of fires in the open from year to year increases in 2007. there were eight major forest fire in 2011. age 14, in 2012. The 20 large wildfires. In the open fires this year killed 16 and injured 79 people. In firefighting daily approximately 700 firefighters participated, out of 3000 as there are in Serbia. 28

Republic hydrometeorological service of Serbia www. hidmet. gov. rs www. meteoalarm. rs 29 THANKS FOR YOUR ATTENTION!