Relevance of Risk AnalysisAssessment to International Trade and

Relevance of Risk Analysis/Assessment to International Trade and the Precautionary Principle Tom Kasari, DVM, MVSc Diplomate, American College Veterinary Preventive Medicine (Epidemiology) Diplomate, American College Veterinary Internal Medicine Presented by: Stan Bruntz, DVM MPH USDA-APHIS-VS Center for Epidemiology and Animal Health Fort Collins, Colorado

Agenda • Review relevance of risk analysis/assessment to international trade and the Precautionary Principle • Review risk analysis process and its component risk assessment procedure • Review quantitative versus qualitative risk assessment methodologies

Relevance of Risk Analysis/Assessment to International Trade • As per WTO (1995) Multilateral Trade Agreements, the Agreement on the Application of Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures (the “SPS Agreement”) sets out for member countries the basic rules for food safety and animal and plant health requirements

159 out of 196 Countries in the World are WTO Members As of March 2013 Map source: www. wto. org/english/thewto_e/countries_e/org 6_map_e. htm

Relevance of Risk Analysis/Assessment to International Trade (WTO SPS Agreement) • WTO Article 5. 1: “Members shall ensure that their sanitary or phytosanitary measures are based on an assessment, as appropriate to the circumstances, of the risks to human, animal or plant life or health, taking into account risk assessment techniques developed by the relevant international organizations” Source: http: //www. wto. org/english/thewto_e/coher_e/wto_oie_e. htm

Relevance of Risk Analysis/Assessment to International Trade (WTO SPS Agreement) • WTO Article 5. 1: Relevant international organization for animal “Members shall ensure that their sanitary health: or phytosanitary measures are based on an assessment, as appropriate to the World Organization for Animal Health (aka Office International des Epizooties or OIE) circumstances, of the risks to human, animal or plant life or health, taking into account risk assessment techniques developed by the relevant international organizations” Source: http: //www. wto. org/english/thewto_e/coher_e/wto_oie_e. htm

Relevance of Risk Analysis/Assessment to International Trade (WTO SPS Agreement) • WTO SPS Measures Article 5. 1 is basis for using OIE guidelines for risk analysis (& component risk assessment) process – OIE Terrestrial Animal Health Code (2013)– Vol I: Section 2; Chapter 2. 1. Import Risk Analysis

Relevance of Risk Analysis/Assessment to International Trade (WTO SPS Agreement) • Besides assessment of risk, other key concepts contained in the SPS Agreement: – Harmonization – Equivalence – Regionalization & compartmentalization – Transparency – Notification

Relevance of Risk Analysis/Assessment to International Trade (WTO SPS Agreement) • Governments encouraged to “harmonize” their animal health standards based on international standards, guidelines, and recommendations developed in other international organizations (i. e. OIE)

Relevance of Risk Analysis/Assessment to International Trade (WTO SPS Agreement) • Governments encouraged to “harmonize” their animal health standards based on international standards, guidelines, and recommendations developed in other international organizations (i. e. OIE) • Harmonization means the establishment, recognition and application of common sanitary and phytosanitary measures

Relevance of Risk Analysis/Assessment to International Trade (WTO SPS Agreement) • National standards do not violate the SPS Agreement simply by differing from international norms (non-harmonized) – Requirements can be stricter – Justify on basis of analysis of scientific evidence and the risks involved

Equivalence • Trading partners recognition that significantly different animal health and production systems can provide equivalent animal and human health protection for the purpose of international trade – Infrastructure – Surveillance policies and/or operating procedures – Laboratory systems – Border security – Internal movement controls

Regionalization (Zoning) • Region/Zone means a clearly defined geographical area (country, part of a country, parts of several countries, several countries) containing an animal subpopulation with a distinct health status with respect to a specific disease for which required surveillance, control and biosecurity measures have been applied for the purpose of international trade.

Compartmentalization • Compartment – means one or more establishments under a common biosecurity management system containing an animal subpopulation with a distinct health status with respect to a specific disease or specific diseases for which required surveillance, control and biosecurity measures have been applied for the purpose of international trade.

Definition • Recognition of animal populations of different health status – Zoning/regionalization • Geographical basis – Compartmentalization • Management and biosecurity

Zones and compartments • Both concepts are similar • The difference is the responsibility of the application of biosecurity measures – Disease-free zones Official sector – Compartments Private sector • Need for close supervision and accreditation by the official veterinary service

Regionalization State’s swine industry Interstate Trade Regionalization = establishing and maintaining a disease free status for a subpopulation of animals based on a geographical basis

Compartmentalization State’s swine industry Interstate Trade Compartmentalization = establishing and maintaining a disease free status for a subpopulation of animals based on management systems related to management and biosecurity

Relevance of Risk Analysis/Assessment to International Trade (WTO SPS Agreement) • Risk analysis and regionalization or compartmentalization depend on the data generated by a soundly designed comprehensive surveillance system – Epidemiology is a key element in providing the scientific basis to satisfy international trade requirements

Relevance of Risk Analysis/Assessment to International Trade (WTO SPS Agreement) • Risk analysis and regionalization depend on the data generated by a soundly designed comprehensive surveillance system • “Harmonization”, “equivalence” “transparency”, and “notification” are the basis for mutual trust between veterinary services of trading partners

Relevance of Risk Analysis/Assessment to International Trade (WTO SPS Agreement) and Precautionary Principle • Precautionary principle: If an action or policy has a suspected risk of causing harm to the public or to the environment, in the absence of scientific consensus that the action or policy is harmful, the burden of proof that it is not harmful falls on those taking an action.

Relevance of Risk Analysis/Assessment to International Trade (WTO SPS Agreement) and Precautionary Principle • Precautionary Principle tempered by risk assessment requirement of WTO trading partners when it comes to matters of potential onerous animal health regulations “If in doubt, keep it out” zero-risk approach to mitigating animal health-related trade issues is unacceptable

Relevance of Risk Analysis/Assessment to International Trade (WTO SPS Agreement) and Precautionary Principle • Relevance of Precautionary Principle to (WTO) Article 5. 1: “…even if a (WTO) Member follows a precautionary (principle) approach, its SPS measures need to be ‘based on’ (i. e. , ‘sufficiently warranted’ or ‘reasonably supported’ by) a risk assessment. Or, to put it another way, such an approach needs to be applied in a manner consistent with the requirements of (WTO) Article 5. 1. ” Source: http: //www. wto. org/english/res_e/booksp_e/analytic_index_e/sps_02_e. htm

Validity Criteria for Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures in International Trade Source: Zepeda C. , et al. 2001. Preventive Veterinary Medicine 48: 261 -271.

Risk Analysis/Assessment

Review Concepts • • What is risk? What is risk analysis? What is risk assessment? Risk analysis and assessment processes

What is Risk? • The likelihood of the occurrence and the likely magnitude of consequences (biologic & economic) of an adverse event or effect to animal or human health Source: OIE Terrestrial Animal health Code 2011 (glossary)

Elements of Risk • Probability (likelihood or chance) of an adverse event (the hazard) • Consequences (or impact) – Biologic – Economic • Uncertainty • Ability to manage

Critical Questions That Should Shape Any Animal Health-Based Risk Analysis • What can go wrong? • How likely is the event(s) to occur? • If the event(s) happen, what is/are the consequence(s) and extent of damage?

What is Risk Analysis? • Organized way to answer those three questions…… as well as incorporate: • What can be done to change (mitigate) the risk? • Whom do we need to inform? • What/how do we need to communicate?

What Is Risk Analysis? How likely is the event to occur? If the event happens, what are the biologic and economic consequences? What can go wrong? Hazard Identification What can be done to change (mitigate) the risk? What must be done to implement mitigation(s)? Risk Assessment Risk Management Risk Communication Whom do we inform? What/how do we need to communicate information? Source: OIE Terrestrial Animal Health Code (2013)– Vol I: Section 2; Chapter 2. 1. http: //www. oie. int/index. php? id=169&L=0&htmfile=chapitre_1. 2. 1. htm

Risk Analysis does NOT: • Establish the “acceptable risk” level • Describe with certainty when/if an agent will be introduced or the consequences • Determine policy • Provide the ONLY input into decision making 33

What is Risk Assessment? • Evaluation of the likelihood of entry, establishment, and spread of a disease and the associated potential biological and economic consequences to animal and/or public health Hazard Identification Risk Assessment Risk Communication Risk Management

Risk Assessment • Consists of: – Entry (release) assessment – Exposure assessment – Consequence assessment • Biologic • Economic – Risk estimation Source: OIE Terrestrial Animal Health Code (2013)– Vol I: Section 2; Chapter 2. 1. http: //www. oie. int/index. php? id=169&L=0&htmfile=chapitre_1. 2. 1. htm

Entry (Release) Assessment • Describes the biological pathway(s) necessary for an importation activity to 'release' (introduce) a pathogen into a particular environment – Pathways analysis • Estimates the probability of that complete process occurring, qualitatively (in words) or quantitatively (as a numerical estimate)

Pathways Analysis Definition Systematic assessment of the pathways along which a foreign animal disease agent might enter the US and establish an outbreak of disease in animals and/or man

Pathways Analysis • Systematic assessment of the pathways along which a foreign animal disease might enter the US and establish an outbreak of disease in animals and/or man • Also applicable for delineating the pathways along which a domestic disease agent might spread from a state/province or region to new state(s)/province(s) or region(s)

Pathways Analysis Its Uses • Risk assessment • Targeted surveillance planning • Emergency preparedness and response

Pathways Analysis Step 1: Establish an understanding of host, agent, and environmental interactions for the disease in question based on scientific literature, expert opinion, personal experience or other sources of information.

Pathways Analysis Steps • Establish an understanding of host, agent, and environmental interactions for the disease in question based on scientific literature, expert opinion, personal experience or other sources of information. Step 2: Develop a list of potential pathways for entry of the disease agent into a susceptible livestock and/or human population

Pathways Analysis Steps • Establish an understanding of host, agent, and environmental interactions for the disease in question based on scientific literature, expert opinion, personal experience or other sources of information. • Develop a list of potential pathways for entry of the disease agent into a susceptible livestock and/or human population Step 3: Evaluate the feasibility of each pathway

Pathways Analysis Steps • Establish an understanding of host, agent, and environmental interactions for the disease in question based on scientific literature, expert opinion, personal experience or other sources of information. • Develop a list of potential pathways for entry of the disease agent into a susceptible livestock and/or human population • Evaluate the feasibility of each pathway • Step 4: Identify the populations at-risk for each feasible pathway that the disease agent follows to enter the country (or state/province or region)

Gaps in knowledge reduces the certainty of the confidence to place on feasibilty of some pathways

Exposure assessment • describes the biological pathway(s) necessary for exposure of animals and humans in the importing country (or state) to the hazards released from a given risk source • Estimate the probability of the exposure(s) occurring, either qualitatively (in words) or quantitatively (as a numerical estimate) – animal and/or people

Consequence assessment • Describes the relationship between specified exposures to a biological agent and the consequences of those exposures – Direct consequences • animal infection, disease, and production losses • public health consequences. – Indirect consequences • • surveillance and control costs compensation costs potential trade losses adverse consequences to the environment

Risk estimation • Integration of the results from: – Release assessment – Exposure assessment – Consequence assessment

Quantitative Versus Qualitative Risk Assessment

‘zero’ risk does not exist 50

Types of risk assessment • Quantitative • Qualitative

Quantitative Risk Assessment • an assessment where the outputs of risk are expressed numerically – Objective in nature – This number can represent the probability of an event occurring during a specific time frame • Disease “X” will enter The Bahamas one out of every 10, 000 shipments of product “a”

Quantitative studies Advantages • More profound • Notion of the probability of occurrence of an adverse event • Informed decisonmaking Disadvantages • Require time • Require good quality data • Not possible to apply in all circumstances

yes Scenario Tree yes no yes NO RISK no Detected at inspection? animal infected? Herd infected? Survives processing? NO RISK yes Susceptible species exposed? NO RISK no RISK

Uncertainty • There are no exact values for each parameter • It is necessary to produce an estimate that incorporates uncertainty and variability • Use of simulation programs

Results • Not a point estimate but a range of probabilities • The result reflects variability and uncertainty 56

Qualitative Risk Assessment • Not always possible to quantify risks because there simply may not be enough data to make reliable calculations • An assessment where the outputs for the likelihood of the outcome or the magnitude of the consequences are expressed in qualitative terms such as ‘high’, ‘medium’, ‘low’ or ‘negligible’ – Subjective in nature

Qualitative studies Advantages • Faster • Applicable to a broader scope of circumstances Disadvantages • Less profound • Do not provide a numerical probability of occurrence of an adverse event • Less precise decision -making

Risk Analysis Process Hazard Identification Risk Assessment Risk Communication Source: OIE Terrestrial Animal Health Code (2013)– Vol I: Section 2; Chapter 2. 1. http: //www. oie. int/index. php? id=169&L=0&htmfile=chapitre_1. 2. 1. htm Risk Management

Questions?