Regional Meeting on Integrating Climate Change into Development

Regional Meeting on Integrating Climate Change into Development Programming 10 th June 2014 Dar es Salaam, Tanzania Impacts of Climate Change in Tanzania EUSTER KIBONA AND DAMIAN CASMIR Environmental Protection and Management Services website: www. epmsafrica. org Postal Address: P. O. Box 7775, Dar Es Salaam, Tanzania. Email: info@epmsafrica. org, eusterkibona@yahoo. com

EPMS Activities �EPMS was established in 1997 focusing on area of climate change, environment and natural resources management with experience in both government and private sector services. Her activities are on environment and climate change services ranging from environmental impact and strategic assessments to adaptation and mitigation; . Climate change policy analysis to training programmes in such areas as climate change and EIA in Tanzania and Africa at large

Some of the activities � Conducted a research on “Adaptation to climate change through shifting of shallow water wells affected by inundation on the coastal region”. � Undertaken, “Capacity Development for the Clean Development Mechanism (CD 4 CDM)” project. � Action research on identification, documentation of the role of indigenous knowledge (IK) on weather forecasting to adapt to climate change within selected communities in Tanzania � Action research on how communities can develop community based adaptation initiatives

Some of the activities cont’ � Undertaken a number of activity research in partnership with IIED under a Capacity Strengthening for Least Developed Countries to Adapt to Climate Change (CLACC) in areas of: Health Urban Vulnerability Water Contribution to studies on economics of climate change in Tanzania

CC in Tanzania �Tanzania is facing climate change impacts. � 21 Meteorology stations have shown changes in temperature and rainfall over the last 30 years. �Overall temperature has increased for the last 30 years.

CC in Tanzania cont… �Evidence of changes in rainfall pattern have been observed in some regions. �The usual bimodal rainfall seasons have changed to unimodal season in some regions e. g. Kilimanjaro region. �Rainfall and temperature changes have increased occurrence and frequency of extreme weather events.

Climate change scenario Temperature �The overall change /increase of temperature ranges from 0. 2 - 0. 8 degrees Celsius for the last 30 years.

Climate change scenario Rainfall • Rainfall is expected to increase from 5%-45% in areas with bimodal rainfall pattern (the north eastern, the north western, the Lake Victoria basin and the northern part of the coastal belt) • Rainfall is expected to decrease from 5%-15%in areas with unimodal rainfall pattern (the southern, southwestern, central and eastern parts) • Impact will be severely in the central region of Tanzania.

Source: Mc. Kinsey & Company

Impacts of climate change �The impacts of climate change in Tanzania are vivid. �The impacts have been felt nearly in all sectors of the economy. �Recent study on the Economics of Climate Change for Tanzania pointed out a loss of almost 2% of GDP each year by 2030 as a result of CC.

Impacts of climate change Infrastructure destruction: �From 1980 -2008, a total of 24 floods were reported. The worst 4 floods affected about 545 000 people. In 2009, Kilosa town was inundated, 23, 980 people displaced. TZS 329 billion (205. 6 MU$) spent to restore infrastructure and services. In 2011, 663 houses demolished, 2, 942 submerged, 9, 000 people displaced in Kilombero valley. Recent unusual heavy rainfall in March / April 2014 in central part and DSM affected hundreds of people and destroyed infrastructure. DSM was isolated for 3 days.

Impacts of climate change Tourism and fisheries �Destruction of access roads �Drowning of wild animals e. g wildebeest �In 2007 about 15 000 of animals drowned when tried to cross river Mara at the start of their journey back to the Serengeti. �In lake Tanganyika temperatures have increased by 0. 6 o. C. Fish population has been reduced by one third over the past 80 years. �There has been a dramatic recession of 7 km of Lake Rukwa in the past 50 years, Lake Jipe. �Coral reefs in the Indian Ocean experienced bleaching in particular in Zanzibar.

Impacts of climate change Tourism and fisheries

Impacts of climate change Tourism and fisheries

Impacts of climate change Energy �Drought affected hydro power in 1992/93, 2005/06, 2009/10, 2010/11 and 2011/12. �Hydro contribution in the electricity mix has decreased due to reduced reserve capacity. �In 2006 the contribution was 61%; 2012 was 42. 6 %; 2013 was 35%. �Impacts on energy have negative effects to other economic sectors.

Impacts of climate change Energy Source: Mc. Kinsey & Company

Impacts of climate change Agriculture �Agriculture is the main economic activity accounting for 80% of the employed population and contributing about 44. 7% of GDP. �Most of the poor people (80%) live in rural areas where agriculture is the mainstay for subsistence. �CC impacts to agriculture will reduce the national GDP by 0. 6 to 1% by 2030. �In 2011 the real GDP grew by 6. 4% compared to 7% observed in 2010 due to drought.

Impacts of climate change Agriculture �Cotton production dropped significantly particularly in traditional areas due to temp. rise. 1975 -1984 1985 -1994 1995 -2004 Source: Info. Bridge 2007

Impacts of climate change Agriculture �Banana production is dropping. 1975 -1984 1985 -1994 1995 -2004 Source: Info. Bridge 2007

Impacts of climate change Water �Climate change will affect three major river basins which have greater economic importance i. e Ruvu, Pangani and Rufiji. �The annual flow of river Pangani will be reduced by of 6%-9% and to the river Ruvu by 10%. �Salt water intrusion in spring wells in Bagamoyo District. �Salt intrusion into Tanzania’s aquifers and deltas e. g Rufiji delta. �Water conflict has intensified between different uses and users.

Impacts of climate change Water

Measures taken to address CC impacts Policy �National climate change strategy �REDD+ strategy �EMA �NAPA �Climate change challenges recognized in NSGRP II, FYDP, sector policies. Physical intervention �Sea wall construction (Pangani and sea view) �Mangroves restoration. �Improve sewerage/ storm water drainage