REGIONAL HAZE Progress Report California Environmental Protection Agency

REGIONAL HAZE Progress Report California Environmental Protection Agency Air Resources Board IASC Meeting Clovis, California ♦ April 1 -2, 2008

CALIFORNIA CLASS 1 AREAS 1. Redwood National Park 2. Marble Mountain Wilderness 3. Lava Beds National Monument 4. South Warner Wilderness 5. Thousand Lakes Wilderness 6. Lassen Volcanic National Park 7. Caribou Wilderness 8. Yolla Bolly Middle Eel Wilderness 9. Point Reyes National Seashore 10. Ventana Wilderness 11. Pinnacles National Monument 12. Desolation Wilderness 13. Mokelumne Wilderness 14. Emigrant Wilderness 15. Hoover Wilderness 16. Yosemite National Park 17. Ansel Adams Wilderness 18. Kaiser Wilderness 19. John Muir Wilderness 20. Kings Canyon National Park 21. Sequoia National Park 22. Dome Land Wilderness 23. San Rafael Wilderness 24. San Gabriel Wilderness 25. Cucamonga Wilderness 26. San Gorgonio Wilderness 27. San Jacinto Wilderness 28. Joshua Tree National Park Notes: The 17 IMPROVE monitors provide pollutant concentration measurements in or near 29. California’s Agua Tibia 29 Class 1 areas, so some data is the same for more than one Class 1 area in California. There are 156 Class 1 Areas in the United States.

OVERVIEW • • • RH SIP Requirements and Progress What Pollutants Drive Haze in California Ability to Control Sources of Pollutant Species California Strategy for Initial Planning Period California and National Issues Statewide Average Contribution to Light Extinction on Worst Haze Days

BASIC REQUIREMENTS RH SIP sets Reasonable Progress Goals for 2018 Worst Day Baseline Deciviews Uniform Glide Path Worst Days Average for Natural Conditions Best Day Baseline Conditions (must not be degraded) 2004 • • 2018 2064 Calculate Best and Worst Days in Deciviews Determine 2018 Reasonable Progress Goals in Deciviews “Long Term Strategy” for reaching 2018 RPGs BART Requirement (Best Available Retrofit Technology) Consultation with Other States / Federal Land Managers Public Webcast Workshop scheduled June 10, 2008 Submission to U. S. EPA after Public Hearing (July 2008) Mid-Course Reviews and SIP Updates every 10 years

MONITOR DATA & DECIVIEWS • Species Mass Light Extinction Deciview Value • Haze Algorithm II calculates light extinction • Deciview is the natural logarithm of light extinction • As Haze Species concentration increases, Light Extinction increases, Visibility worsens, Deciview number increases • Reduce Haze Species, Deciview number decreases, clearer air with higher range of visibility • Bottom line: reduce haze species “drivers” of worst day haze – Determine drivers at each IMPROVE monitor (Class 1 Area) and figure out where sources are – Model to look back at emissions and look forward to 2018

Haze Algorithm Tutorial: Measuring Visibility 1. Haze pollutants are particles that have the ability to absorb and reflect light radiation; both actions extinguish light and decrease visibility. Particle mass, humidity, and temperature influence the amount of light extinction caused by haze species. Rayleigh scattering is affected by elevation and temperature. 2. The “HAZE ALGORITHM” uses Species Mass to determine Light Extinction which is converted to a Deciview Value. 3. Every third day, 24 -hour mass measurements are made of all the haze species collected at each IMPROVE monitor and the Haze Algorithm is used to deliver individual species and total species Light Extinction in inverse megameters (Mm-1). 4. The Haze Algorithm for calculating Light Extinction (bext) weights the Species Mass (ug/m 3) measured at the IMPROVE monitors using particle size, humidity, and elevation as follows: b. Sulfate = 2. 2 x f. S(RH) x [small SO 4] + 4. 8 x f. L(RH) x [large SO 4] b. Nitrate = 2. 4 x f. S(RH) x [small NO 3] + 5. 1 x f. L(RH) x [large NO 3] b. Organic Material Carbon = 2. 8 x [Small OM] + 6. 1 x [Large OM] b. Elemental Carbon = 10 x [EC] b. Fine Soil = 1 x [Fine Soil] b. Sea Salt = 1. 7 x f. SS(RH) [Sea salt] b. Coarse Mass = 0. 6 x [CM] b. Rayleigh = (Site Specific factor, related to elevation, ranging from 7+ to 11+ in California) b. Nitric Oxide gas= 0. 33 x [NO 2 (ppb)] (not measured at most IMPROVE sites. ) The sum of the weighted extinction values gives the total daily extinction (Total bext) for each day of measurement: Total bext = b. Sulfate + b. Nitrate + b. EC +b. OMC + b. Soil + b. CM + b. SS + b. Ray + b. NO 2 5. The deciview scale was created to describe the total light extinction capability of all haze species in the ambient air at a given time at a given location. The Deciview Value (dv) is the natural logarithm of the total calculated light extinction on each day of measurement. Mass measurements for all species must be available to calculate the dv for a given day. Deciview Value (dv) = 10 ln (Total bext / 10) 6. Each year, the daily Deciview Values are ranked for the entire year and the 20% highest days are averaged to obtain the “Worst Day” deciview average for that year. The average Worst Day Deciview Value for each of the baseline years are then averaged to get the Baseline “Worst Day” Deciview Value for the monitor. The same process is undertaken to calculate the 20% “Best Day” deciview average using the lowest ranking days (cleanest, best visibility) for the baseline. 7. These “Worst Day” and “Best Day” average Deciview levels are used to develop the Long-Term Strategy and Reasonable Progress Goals for the Regional Haze SIP.

GEOGRAPHIC OVERVIEW • Far Northern California (Inland) -organics, sulfates, nitrates • Sierra Nevada Mountains -organics, sulfates, nitrates • Coastal Sub-Units -sea salt, sulfate, nitrate, organics • Southern California -nitrates, organics, sulfates California C 1 A Out-of-State C 1 A IMPROVE monitor • Closest Neighbor Class 1 Areas -Arizona (Grand Canyon…) -Oregon (Kalmiopsis…) -Nevada (only Jarbridge)

MONITOR ASSIGNMENTS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TRIN (1014 m) Trinity Alps Marble Mountain Wilderness; Yolla Bolly-Middle Eel Wilderness LABE (1460 m) Lava Beds National Monument, South Warner Wilderness LAVO (1733 m) Lassen Volcanic National Park, Caribou Wilderness, Thousand Lakes Wilderness SIERRA CALIFORNIA BLIS (2131 m) Bliss State Park Desolation Wilderness, Mokelumne Wilderness HOOV (2561 m) Hoover Wilderness YOSE (1603 m) Yosemite National Park, Emigrant Wilderness KAIS (2598 m) Kaiser Wilderness, Ansel Adams Wilderness, John Muir Wilderness SEQU (519 m) Sequoia National Park, Kings Canyon National Park DOME (927 m) Dome Lands Wilderness COASTAL CALIFORNIA REDW* (244 m) Redwood National Park PORE (97 m) Point Reyes National Seashore PINN (302 m) Pinnacles Wilderness, Ventana Wilderness RAFA (957 m) San Rafael Wilderness SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SAGA* (1791 m) San Gabriel Wilderness, Cucamonga Wilderness SAGO (1726 m) San Gorgonio Wilderness, San Jacinto Wilderness AGTI* (508 m) Agua Tibia JOSH (1235 m) Joshua Tree National Park

NORTHERN CALIFORNIA • TOTAL light extinction ~ 10 times higher on Worst Days • Organic Carbon (OC) clearly drives Worst Days • Wildfires, Transportation Corridors, Stationary Sources

SIERRA CALIFORNIA • • • TOTAL light extinction ~ 6 -12 x higher on Worst Days Organic Carbon or Nitrates drive worst days Wildfires and Biogenics (OC), Urban Mix (nitrates/sulfates) Coarse Mass and Fine Soil from wind events Monitor Elevation (exposure to inversions, long-range transport)

SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA • • • TOTAL light extinction ~ 6 -12 x higher on Worst Days Nitrates drive worst days; sulfates and organics also have roles Mobile sources (on and off-road) key component year-round Coarse Mass and Fine Soil from natural events Monitor Elevation (exposure to inversions, long-range transport)

COASTAL CALIFORNIA • • TOTAL light extinction ~ 4 -7 x higher on Worst Days Sea Salt and Sulfates more influence than elsewhere Affected by marine commercial shipping Onshore – Offshore wind patterns; different source attribution for same haze species

EMISSIONS AND SOURCES • California Statewide inventory of haze precursors (WRAP 2002 c in Tons per Year) • Organic Carbon sources primarily natural • Nitrate sources primarily anthropogenic • Does not include marine commercial vessel emissions

OTHER INFLUENCES California RH SIP focuses on anthropogenic sources under state or local control TRANSPORT “Controllable vs. Uncontrollable” Out-of-State In-State Anthropogenic ~20%* ~35%* Natural ~15%* ~30%* * Numbers are rounded estimates of haze pollutant source origin based on source attribution modeling

STRATEGY FOR 2018 population growth and climate change… urban/wildland interface pressures… new NAAQS standards… California “Long-Term” Strategy for Initial Planning Period – On-the-Books Ozone/PM Controls Modeled to give Reasonable Progress Goals for 2018 – BART Reductions minimal due to existing controls – Adjust at Mid-Course Review with more data and new post-2004 controls

CALIFORNIA’s BART PROCESS

PRELIMINARY REASONABLE PROGRESS Baseline Modeling Results: Visibility improves at all California Class 1 Areas

MID-COURSE REVIEW • Future Program Benefits from NAAQS, SAAQS, Climate Change, Goods Movement, Diesel Risk Reduction Programs – Same pollutants involved – Same high-emitting source categories (refineries, power plants, cement plants, large boilers) • Scheduled for 2012 -2013 Time Frame – Emissions Reductions compared to Monitoring Data – Natural Conditions Assessment – May Adjust Reasonable Progress Goals

PENDING CONCERNS • RH SIP as Learning Experience NASA Photo October 2007 – BART reductions await final modeling – Regional cooperation essential – Continued consultation valuable • Controllable vs. Uncontrollable Sources – – – Wildfires, Dust Storms, and other Natural Events Pacific Shipping / Oceanic Atmospheric Chemistry Jet Stream Sources International Transport (Mexico, Canada, Asia) Organic Aerosols: Biogenic Emissions v. Anthropogenic VOCs • Achieving Natural Conditions – Will EPA continue to Fund Monitoring & Technical Support? – Will metrics change for calculating Natural Conditions or visibility? – Will it take until the 23 rd Century?

“SEEING” WILDFIRE PLUMES Umpqua Complex Fire Plume REDW TRIN OREGON Biscuit Fire Plume CALIFORNIA PORE Inventory and Modeling for “Baseline” Period: Analyzing Monitoring Data for “Natural Conditions” analysis: 2002 “Base Year” was very bad year for western wildfire emissions Canoe and Honey Fires not “seen” by Redwood but measurable at Point Reyes and Trinity Alps monitors

“MEASURING” SMOKE IMPACTS John Muir Wilderness Webcam Exact same location: Big Creek Fire 13 miles SW 8/15 - 8/29/1994 picture taken at 3: 00 PM on 8/27/1994 Scenic view picture taken at 3: 00 PM on 9/21/1994 • Need local knowledge and satellite photos – No IMPROVE monitors for John Muir Wilderness in 1994 – Neither YOSE > 150 miles NW, nor SEQU >50 miles SW saw OC change

Southern California Fires – October 2003 October 25, 2003 From NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio: http: //svs. gsfc. nasa. gov/vis/a 000000/a 002842/ Photo of California wildfires from space, after the winds shifted toward Arizona and Nevada on October 29, 2003. Photo credit: NASA

REGIONAL “DUST” EVENTS northern el. 1469 m “Tax Day” Asian Windfall: April 16, 2001 Santa Ana Winds: Autumn and early winter Sierra el. 1615 m Sundowners & Valley transport? SR coastal el. 953 m SGA CU SGO SJ JT AG southern el. 507 m NASA image: February 9, 2002

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION Prepared by U. S. Census Bureau One dot = 7500 people Websites for Regional Haze: ARB – www. arb. ca. gov/planning/reghaze. htm WRAP – www. wrapair. org TSS – http: //vista. cira. colostate. edu/tss/ CARB Contacts: Tina Suarez-Murias Sylvia Zulawnick csuarezm@arb. ca. gov szulawni@arb. ca. gov

YOSE (Yosemite): Yosemite National Park Emigrant Wilderness PRELIMINARY DRAFT 4 -1 -08 Monitoring Data converted to Light Extinction showing Best & Worst Days for 20002004 Basellne Period Millenium Fireworks Annual Worst Days – Light Extinction Worst Days Monthly Average - 2002

YOSE (Yosemite): Yosemite National Park Emigrant Wilderness YOSE at Turtleback Dome, 1 mile west of Tunnel View PRELIMINARY DRAFT 4 -1 -08

YOSE (Yosemite): 9 -28 -82 10 -9 -82 Yosemite National Park Emigrant Wilderness Source regions 2018 “On-the-Books Scenario Modeling: Organic Carbon Nitrates Sulfates PRELIMINARY DRAFT 4 -1 -08