Red Meat Prospects Conference Progress Through Partnership The

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Red Meat Prospects Conference ‘Progress Through Partnership’

Red Meat Prospects Conference ‘Progress Through Partnership’

The market outlook for cattle and sheep The view from Scotland Stuart Ashworth Head

The market outlook for cattle and sheep The view from Scotland Stuart Ashworth Head of Economic Services Quality Meat Scotland

What a difference a year makes Cattle prices are at record highs Sheep are

What a difference a year makes Cattle prices are at record highs Sheep are not

GB livestock prices

GB livestock prices

Scottish premium over England Wales average steer prices

Scottish premium over England Wales average steer prices

Scottish steer premium over England Wales

Scottish steer premium over England Wales

Scottish premium over Eng & Wales average SQQ lamb prices

Scottish premium over Eng & Wales average SQQ lamb prices

What a difference a year makes Cattle prices are at record highs Sheep are

What a difference a year makes Cattle prices are at record highs Sheep are not Breeding cattle numbers have declined Ewes have not

Stock numbers change in 12 months to Dec 2012 Great Britain Scotland Beef cows

Stock numbers change in 12 months to Dec 2012 Great Britain Scotland Beef cows (-) 0. 8% (-) 0. 9% Dairy cows No change (-) 0. 3% Dairy sired calf registrations in the year +4. 2 (males +7%) +7. 7 (males 12. 5%) Beef sired calf registrations in the year -3. 5 -2. 5 Total calf registrations in the year +0. 3 -0. 8 Breeding ewes (+) 0. 4% (+) 0. 7% Breeding sows (-) 2. 5% (-) 12. 7%

GB cattle population January

GB cattle population January

GB male cattle population January

GB male cattle population January

GB female cattle population January

GB female cattle population January

What a difference a year makes Cattle prices are at record highs Sheep are

What a difference a year makes Cattle prices are at record highs Sheep are not Breeding cattle numbers have declined Ewes have not Retail price of beef has increased Lamb has not

Movement in average retail prices source ONS

Movement in average retail prices source ONS

What a difference a year makes Cattle prices are at record highs Sheep are

What a difference a year makes Cattle prices are at record highs Sheep are not Breeding cattle numbers have declined Ewes have not Retail price of beef has increased Lamb has not Sterling has weakened against the Euro And the dollar

Exchange rates

Exchange rates

UK lamb prices

UK lamb prices

Exchange rates

Exchange rates

What a difference a year makes Cattle prices are at record highs Sheep are

What a difference a year makes Cattle prices are at record highs Sheep are not Breeding cattle numbers have declined Ewes have not Retail price of beef has increased Lamb has not Sterling has weakened against the Euro And the dollar UK economy remains weak So too does Europe

Economic snap shot GDP Growth Change in consumer confidence indicator (past twelve months) 2011

Economic snap shot GDP Growth Change in consumer confidence indicator (past twelve months) 2011 2012 2013 1. 7% 0. 2% 0. 4% -2 3% 0. 8% -5 Italy 0. 4% -2. 3% -0. 5% -5 Spain 0. 4% -1. 4% -8 UK 0. 9% -0. 3% +0. 9% +4 France Germany Source: European Commission

What a difference a year makes Cattle prices are at record highs Sheep are

What a difference a year makes Cattle prices are at record highs Sheep are not Breeding cattle numbers have declined Ewes have not Retail price of beef has increased Lamb has not Sterling has weakened against the Euro And the dollar UK economy remains weak So too does Europe Oh and we have had “horsegate”

So have things changed? Consumers are wary of processed meats So good news for

So have things changed? Consumers are wary of processed meats So good news for prime cuts Multiple retailers are feeling “unloved” Good news for butchers and processors? Provenance is becoming important EU “COOL” legislation may speed up PGI is an advantage Supplies are tight and may get tighter Multiple retailers more interested in their supply chain More interest in partnering? But to whose advantage?

GB regional beef prices steer average

GB regional beef prices steer average

GB regional beef prices Gain on average R 4 L price at 40 p

GB regional beef prices Gain on average R 4 L price at 40 p over Eng & Wales Average

Some concluding thoughts Medium term population growth will drive a steady demand at home

Some concluding thoughts Medium term population growth will drive a steady demand at home and internationally National and global stock numbers mean supplies will remain tight Short term economic challenges will drive consumer behaviour and limit improvement from market place Retail environment means supermarkets are looking for help Cost price squeeze for producers and processors remains Success lies in innovation and appliance of science

The Scottish beef and sheep industry – So we are in a good position

The Scottish beef and sheep industry – So we are in a good position then?

Red Meat Prospects Conference ‘Progress Through Partnership’

Red Meat Prospects Conference ‘Progress Through Partnership’