RECENT IMPLIED PROBABILITIES Negative probabilities occur when nonnegative

RECENT IMPLIED PROBABILITIES *Negative probabilities occur when nonnegative ones cannot satisfy futures constraint

RECENT IMPLIED PROBABILITIES USING TERM PREMIUM *Negative probabilities occur when nonnegative ones cannot satisfy Term-Premium constraint

JUNE MEETING OUTCOMES Implied probability 5. 00% 5. 25% 4. 50% 4. 75%

JUNE MEETING OUTCOMES WITH TERM PREMIUM Implied probability 5. 00% 5. 25% 4. 75% 4. 50%

JUNE MEETING OUTCOMES Implied probability 5. 00% 5. 25% CPI 4. 75% 4. 50% PPI, Industrial production, Residential construction 5. 50%

JUNE MEETING OUTCOMES WITH TERM PREMIUM Implied probability 5. 00% 5. 25% 4. 75% 4. 50% 5. 50%

JUNE MEETING OUTCOMES Implied probability 4. 75% 5. 25% 5. 00%

JUNE MEETING OUTCOMES WITH TERM PREMIUM Implied probability 4. 75% 5. 00% 5. 25%

JUNE MEETING OUTCOMES Implied probability 5. 00% 5. 25% 4. 75% 5. 50%

JUNE MEETING OUTCOMES WITH TERM PREMIUM Implied probability 5. 00% 5. 25% 4. 75% 5. 50%

AUGUST MEETING OUTCOMES Implied probability CPI 5. 00% PPI, Industrial production, Residential construction 5. 25% 5. 50% 4. 75%

AUGUST MEETING OUTCOMES WITH TERM PREMIUM Implied probability 5. 00% 5. 50% 5. 25% 4. 75%

AUGUST MEETING OUTCOMES Implied probability 5. 00% 5. 25% 5. 50% 4. 75% 5. 75%

AUGUST MEETING OUTCOMES WITH TERM PREMIUM Implied probability 5. 00% 5. 50% 5. 25% 4. 75% 5. 75%