RECENT IMPLIED PROBABILITIES Negative probabilities occur when nonnegative
RECENT IMPLIED PROBABILITIES *Negative probabilities occur when nonnegative ones cannot satisfy futures constraint
RECENT IMPLIED PROBABILITIES USING TERM PREMIUM *Negative probabilities occur when nonnegative ones cannot satisfy Term-Premium constraint
JUNE MEETING OUTCOMES Implied probability 5. 00% 5. 25% 4. 50% 4. 75%
JUNE MEETING OUTCOMES WITH TERM PREMIUM Implied probability 5. 00% 5. 25% 4. 75% 4. 50%
JUNE MEETING OUTCOMES Implied probability 5. 00% 5. 25% CPI 4. 75% 4. 50% PPI, Industrial production, Residential construction 5. 50%
JUNE MEETING OUTCOMES WITH TERM PREMIUM Implied probability 5. 00% 5. 25% 4. 75% 4. 50% 5. 50%
JUNE MEETING OUTCOMES Implied probability 4. 75% 5. 25% 5. 00%
JUNE MEETING OUTCOMES WITH TERM PREMIUM Implied probability 4. 75% 5. 00% 5. 25%
JUNE MEETING OUTCOMES Implied probability 5. 00% 5. 25% 4. 75% 5. 50%
JUNE MEETING OUTCOMES WITH TERM PREMIUM Implied probability 5. 00% 5. 25% 4. 75% 5. 50%
AUGUST MEETING OUTCOMES Implied probability CPI 5. 00% PPI, Industrial production, Residential construction 5. 25% 5. 50% 4. 75%
AUGUST MEETING OUTCOMES WITH TERM PREMIUM Implied probability 5. 00% 5. 50% 5. 25% 4. 75%
AUGUST MEETING OUTCOMES Implied probability 5. 00% 5. 25% 5. 50% 4. 75% 5. 75%
AUGUST MEETING OUTCOMES WITH TERM PREMIUM Implied probability 5. 00% 5. 50% 5. 25% 4. 75% 5. 75%
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