Recent implementations planned work at the Canadian Meteorological

Recent implementations & planned work at the Canadian Meteorological Centre Michel Béland Meteorological Service of Canada

Global Environmental Multiscale Forecasting & Modeling System Seasonal • Uniform resolution • Variable resolution • Hydrostatic • Non-hydrostatic • Global • Limited-area • Distributed memory Middle Atmosphere S P A C E Climate Monthly Medium-range Ensemble • 3 D Var Data assimilation • 4 D Var Data assimilation • Emergengy response Regional (Continental) • Volcanic ashes • Operational forecasts • Air quality Mesoscale (Sub-continental) • Stratospheric ozone Regional Climate • Wave model • Coupling to hydrology LAM TIME • Coupling to oceanology • Simulations • Climate. . .

Variable Uniform Rotated Limited Area

Regional System Uniform window covering North America 3 D-Var Regional assimilation cycle Present status • 354 415 28 Total • Resolution of. 22º (~24 km) Planned upgrade (2004) • 576 641 58 Total (~250 cpu IBM 1 h) • Sundqvist condensation • 0. 15º (~15 km) • Fritsch-Chappell convection • Kain-Fritsch convection • Distributed-Memory • 4 runs per day • ISBA • AMSU-B and GOES • profilers, MODIS winds • Quick. Scat

Global Model Present status • 400 28 (uniform) • Resolution of. 9º (~100 km) • 3 D-Var at T 108 on model levels • 6 -hr cycle • raw radiances (AMSU-A, B and GOES) • Kuo Convection • Sundqvist stratiform scheme • Force-restore with climatogical HS • SGO Planned upgrade • 800 600 58 (uniform) • Resolution of. 3º (~35 km) • 4 D-Var assimilation, 6 -hr window • 3 outer loops at full model resolution • inner loops at T 108 • equivalent of a 5 -day forecast • profilers, MODIS winds, Quick. Scat • Regional physics

Ensemble Prediction System Present status • 16 members @ 300 150 28 • Resolution of 1. 5º (~150 km) • 10 days @ 00 Z • Perturbed OI, 6 -hr cycle • Derived radiances (Satems) • SEF and GEM • spaghetti plots • probability of precipitation • surface temperature in Canada • ten-day mean temperatures Planned upgrade • • ~2005 • • ~2007 • • Ensemble Kalman Filter raw radiances (AMSU-A, B) 15 days @ 00 Z and 12 Z GEM 400 200 58 Resolution to 100 km 32 members Data as in global system Prototype regional ensemble 10 members LAM 500 58 Start from global EPS

4 D-Var Use more asynoptic data (aircraft, surface data, ATOVS, GOES, SSM/I) n Same framework used for computation of singular vectors (M. Buehner and A. Zadra) n Changes to the background-error covariances on 4 DVar analyses and forecasts (M. Buehner) n Improvement of simplified physics (Mahfouf, Laroche) n

Mesoscale System Initialised by 6 hour forecast from the regional model Present status • Variable resolution • uniform region at 10 km • 2 windows, 290 371 35 • HIgh resolution Model Application Project • Mixed phase condensation • Kain-Fritsch convection • 2 times /day at 06 Z and 18 Z Planned status ~2004 • Prototype GEM limited-area • 500 45 • 2. 5 km over one area ~ 2005 • 5 Limited areas ~ 2008 • 4 D data assimilation

Mesoscale GEM Setup n n n 2. 5 km (0. 0225 ) horizontal resolution 43 vertical hybrid levels to 10 h. Pa hydrostatic (initially) 40 s / 75 s time step Explicit condensation: Kong & Yau Deep convection: none Shallow convection: Clef / Conres Surface scheme: ISBA 12 hour forecasts Initialised with operational (24 km) analysis Southern and central British Columbia

GEM Domain