Recent Activities at the NOAA Space Environment Center

Recent Activities at the NOAA Space Environment Center Dr. Tom Bogdan, Director Presented by: Dr. Doug Biesecker European Space Weather Week 2006 National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration National Weather Service National Centers for Environmental Prediction Boulder, Colorado, USA Photo Courtesy: Alistair Mc. Noe

Overview • Customer growth for space weather services • Status of observing systems Ø NOAA Geostationary Operational Environmental Ø Satellite (GOES) Ø Advance Composition Explorer (ACE) • SEC 2007 - 2013 ØSolar Wind measurements ØCoronagraph ØGOES ØTransition research and models to operations

Mars Missions Commercial Space Transportation GPS Survey Airline Polar Flights Microchip technology Precision Guided Munitions NOAA Space Cell phones Environment Atomic Clock Satellite Operations Center Carbon Dating experiments GPS Navigation Ozone Measurements Aircraft Radiation Hazard Commercial TV Relays Communications Satellite Orientation Spacecraft Charging Satellite Reconnaissance & Remote Sensing Instrument Damage Geophysical Exploration. Pipeline Operations Anti-Submarine Detection Satellite Power Arrays Power Distribution Long-Range Telephone Systems Radiation Hazards to Astronauts Interplanetary Satellite experiments VLF Navigation Systems (OMEGA, LORAN) Over the Horizon Radar Solar-Terres. Research & Applic. Satellites Research & Operations Requirements Satellite Orbit Prediction Solar Balloon & Rocket experiments Ionospheric Rocket experiments Short-wave Radio Propagation Growth of Space Weather Customers A few of the agencies and industries that rely on NOAA space weather services today: • U. S. power grid infrastructure • Commercial airline industry • Dep. of Transportation (GPS) • NASA human space flight activities • Satellite launch and operations • Do. D Operations DOE Nuclear Reg Comm Schlumberger NY/PJM Grid Ball Loral NESDIS/SOCC Digital Globe Boeing Lockheed Aerospace Echostar NASA Space Command ISS Astronauts FAA American United Airlines Northwest Continental Sunspot Cycles

Growth continues through Solar Minimum… Service Begins NOAA space weather alerts and warnings are distributed by organizations to sister agencies and subordinate groups… NOAA/SEC Radiation Alert/Warning NASA Space Radiation Analysis Group NASA Mission Control • NASA Management • Flight Control • Biomedical Engineers • Surgeon Lockheed Martin Management NASDA (Japan) Mission Control CSA (Canada) Mission Control ESA (Europe) Mission Control RSA (Russia) Mission Control Russian Inst. Biomedical Problems

Significant Growth Areas… Airlines and the Polar Routes • Airlines rely on HF Radio (3 -30 MHz) inside the 82 degree circle. • Federal Aviation Regulation Sec. 121. 99 – aircraft must have two-way radio communication over the entire route with dispatch office and air traffic control. • Airlines re-route flights away from polar routes during radiation and geomagnetic storms. Cost can exceed $100, 000 per flight. HF Communication only

SEC GPS Customer Growth • Land mapping, construction, and surveying • Exploration and earth studies • Precision positioning of offshore drilling rigs, ultra-deepwater drilling ships, and pipeline lay barges • Mining operations • Airline Navigation Systems • Airborne survey operations including LIDAR survey operations • Rail surveys for track spacing • Surveying transmissions lines for the powerline industry • Precision farming Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS) For 15 and 11 -hour periods in Oct 2003, the vertical error limit (50 meters), was exceeded. Commercial aircraft were unable to use WAAS for precision approaches.

Sample GPS Customer List AE & E Trucking, Etc. , LLC Global. Santa. Fe Drilling Co. Portland Natural Gas Transmission AEI-CASE Engineering GRW Aerial Surveys, Inc. Raymac Surveys Airmag Surveys Halcyon Exploration Company Rockwell Collins, Inc. Associated Engineers, Inc J. D. Barnes Ltd. (survey) Schlumberger Athens Group (oil & gas) Johnson Engineering SP Surveys Baker Hughes (drilling) Jones, Wood & Gentry, inc Surveying and Mapping Banks Engineering KCI Technologies Target Well Control Barr Engineering Co. Naval Undersea Warfare Center Teledyne Brown Engineering, Inc. Black Hawk County Engineer NC Geodetic Survey The Boeing Company/GPS Ops Boeing Nexen Inc. (oil) The Keith Companies, Inc Carver County Survey Office NOVA Engineering & Consulting The Troyer Group Christopher Burke Eng Ltd. Old Dominion Freight Lines Transocean Drilling Clarida Engineering Co. Olson Trucking U. S. Coast Guard DGR Consultants Omnistar, Inc. Unintech Engineers Discovery Management Grp Oxy (oil & gas) Vickrey & Associates, Inc. Earth Energy Consulting Pape-Dawson Engineering Western. Geco/Schlumberger Eastern Topographics PGS Onshore Winzler & Kelly Engineers Excel Geophysics Planning Consultants, Inc. Zonge Engineering

Aviation Growth Next 6 Years: Airlines operating US-China routes go from 4 to 9 Ø Number of weekly flights from 54 to 249 Ø Next 12 Years: 1. 8 million polar route passengers by 2018 Ø Space Commercial Transportation - 15, 000 passengers and Revenues in excess of $1 billion per year by 2021 Futron’s Space Tourism Market Study: Space transportation scenario by 2030 suggests 5 million passengers into space per year (CNN Science & Space Friday, September 24, 2004)

Current Status of Observing Systems • GOES-12 SXI - Anomaly occurred on Sept 18, 2006. The failure of at least one additional front entrance filter (one had failed in Nov, 2003) is suspected. Return to operations date is unknown. • STEREO – Preparing for acquisition of real-time data. • GOES 13 – Successful launch on 24 May. Spacecraft goes into storage on Dec. 27, 2006. – In the mean-time, check out the images above

46 ACE RTSW Data Displays on the SEC Public Web Site: • 35 updating Plots, • 8 real-time lists • 3 special displays for S/C location, tracking, and current conditions "dials" ACE RTSW customers are from 62 domains, the top users: Japan. com (commercial) Education Germany Australia U. S. Government United Kingdom. net (commercial) Russia Belgium Extensive Usage of Real Time Solar Wind Data • 4. 28 million ACE RTSW web files were transferred in October, 2006 (11% of total) • About 1, 000 ACE RTSW users daily

SEC Product Subscription Users Those who use/require ACE RTSW • Data base query run October, 2006: Find number of subscribers requesting the K 5, K 6, & K 7 warnings, and K 8 & K 9 Alerts (very dependent on ACE RTSW data) – 654 registered users out of 4219 ( 16%) – Users located in 43 countries Argentina Australia Austria Belgium Bolivia Brazil Canada Chile China Cuba Czech Rep. Finland France Germany Hungary Iceland India Indonesia Ireland Israel Italy Japan Korea, South Libya Macedonia Mexico Netherlands New Zealand Norway Peru Philippines Romania Russia Singapore Slovakia Slovenia South Africa Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey UK United States

Real time solar wind data comes from the ACE • NASA research satellite launched in 1997 • Has outlived its original design life; key instruments showing signs of degradation • NASA asserts there is sufficient fuel to control ACE until about 2022, and sufficient power output from the solar panels until 2025. The continual flow of real time solar wind data from ACE grows more uncertain every year. In April 2006, the National Weather Service issued a public notice that ACE might fail at any time without notice, and user impact comments were solicited.

Public Response to Termination of Solar Wind Data • 1, 082 comments were received from 29 countries • Respondents: Medical – Land Surveyors/GPS/LORAN – Airlines – U. S. Civil Government – Emergency Management/Communication – Military –Power/Utility Industry – Satellite and Communications Industry – Oil Drilling – Education/research scientists – Mining – Amateur Radio – many more • Significant economic impacts were identified – Many pointed to societal impacts such as increased radiation dosage during high latitude flights, or the loss of critical input when relying on backup communications during emergency situations SECTOR Electric Utilities GPS Users Satellite IMPACT LOSS Grid failure/blackout $6 – 10 billion Transformer damage $1 – 2 million initial ($1 mil a day until replacement) Marine positioning (oil rigs, etc) $50 k – 1 mil (daily/one company) Land survey/construction $20 k – 1 mil (daily/one company) Deep charging – total loss $200 mil (one satellite)

SEC 2007 - 2013 • The plan depends on the funding SEC receives, but we expect to accomplish all of this at the expected appropriations level. – The exception to this is the possible procurement of new instruments • SEC will adjust its staffing level to accommodate our ability to respond to the expected increase in high impact events as solar activity increases and reaches a peak in FY 11 or FY 12. • At some time, perhaps around FY 09 or FY 10, GOES-13 will be brought out of storage and moved into operations. • New products will be added with a focus on introducing numerical models with regional forecasting capability. Transition to Operations – the new catchphrase

Plan Through FY 13 Future instrumentation: Solar Wind and CME Imaging Solar Wind: Proposed FY 09 start beginning with refurbishment of DSCOVR (formerly Triana). This would be followed by a public/private partnership - commercial company will develop and fly a satellite and NOAA will buy the data. CME Imaging: Proposed FY 10 start. Possibly to fly on the solar wind mission, though other options are possible. Also a public/private partnership where NOAA would purchase the data provided by a commercial company All of the major near earth space weather models, allowing regional forecasting capability, that are currently under development will depend on the continuous stream of solar wind data.

GOES 13 • • • Improved Solar X-ray imager (SXI) EUV instrument for monitoring space weather and climate changes in the Sun particle radiation instruments that extend to lower energies and cover multiple directions GOES O and P • • • GOES-P will be launched in FY 10 GOES-O, in storage in space, will be moved into operations around FY 11 Each contains a similar complement of space weather instruments, with the exception of SXI METOP 1 & 2 METOP 2 will be launched in FY 10

Transition to Operations • The efficient transition of new models, products, and data into space weather operations is critical to maintain and improve the success of Program capabilities. • Government agencies have expended tens of millions of dollars developing models of the local and regional reaction of the space environment to forcing inputs from the Sun, and many of these models are approaching maturity and will be ready for transition to operations during this planning cycle. • Improvements can only be realized through transition of models capable of regional specification and forecasting. • Initial plan is to transition 3 models.

Global Assimilation of Ionospheric Measurements (GAIM) The GAIM) model is a physics-based, data assimilation model that incorporates a variety of near-real-time ground and space-based observations to accurately characterize and predict the state of the ionosphere. The specifications and forecasts will be in the form of 3 -dimensional electron density distributions from 90 to 25, 000 km. GAIM will also provide global distributions for the ionospheric drivers (neutral winds, electric fields, and particle precipitation), and in its specification mode, it will provide quantitative estimates for the accuracy of the reconstructed ionospheric densities.

Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA)/ENLIL The WSA is an empirical background solar wind model that predicts the speed and magnetic configuration of the solar wind from solar surface magnetic field observations. ENLIL is a physics-based numerical model for simulations of the solar wind that includes transient disturbances, such as Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs). These Models will provide the capability to predict the evolution of CME’s, which in turn will enable improved forecasts of resulting geomagnetic activity. Dependent on CME imagery for input to ENLIL.

Lyon-Fedder-Mobarry (LFM) The LFM magnetosphereionosphere research model is a time -dependent, ideal MHD calculation of the state of the magnetosphere. This magnetospheric model is tightly coupled to a realistic model for the polar ionosphere and is driven by solar wind plasma and magnetic field data upwind of the calculation domain. Transition of the LFM will allow geomagnetic storm products of increased accuracy and lead-time on both global and regional scales.

Backup Slides

The Space Environment Center The SEC provides real-time monitoring and forecasting of solar and geophysical events, conducts research in solar-terrestrial physics, and develops techniques forecasting solar and geophysical disturbances.

About SEC Ø Three functional areas of SEC: - Forecast and Analysis Branch: Nation's official source of space weather alerts and warnings. Operations are 24 hours per day, 7 days a week. - Science and Technology Infusion Branch: Conducts research focused on areas where advanced applications can be developed and prototyped to improve space weather services. - Technology Support Group: Responsible for the overall management, development and maintenance of the SEC IT architecture and infrastructure.

SEC / ISES Partnership International Space Environment Service (ISES) Mission: Encourage and facilitate near-realtime international monitoring and prediction of the space environment. SEC is a member of ISES serving as one of the Regional Warning Centers (RWC) and "World Warning Agency“ ISES is a consortium of 12 member nations

Products and Services SEC produces 42 event-driven products Watches; expected disturbances, events that are forecast (i. e. The conditions are favorable for occurrence) Warnings; disturbances that are imminent, likely, expected in the near future with high probability Alerts; observed conditions meeting or exceeding thresholds Summaries; report issued as storm thresholds change/end-of -event

SEC Online Products and Services http: //www. sec. noaa. gov/aviation/ http: //pss. sec. noaa. gov http: //sec. noaa. gov SEC Product Subscription Service (PSS) Ø Replaces the current email product distribution system, including Majordomo List-Server Ø Improves SEC customer support by providing a web-based GUI interface Ø Improves our ability to gather information about our customers Ø Allows our customers to register to receive our products via email Ø Allows customers to manage their own records and product selections Products available at www. sec. noaa. gov

Satellite Industry Solar storm warnings and alerts uses: • Instruments and/or spacecraft turned off or safed • Maneuver planning • Anomaly assessments • Orbit determination accuracy • Increased spacecraft and instrument monitoring for health and safety during solar storms

Manned Space Flight • Shuttle missions and EVAs require particular attention. The EVA-1 hr briefing is the last opportunity to abort an EVA due to space weather. (>30 Me. V events are primary concern) • Electron belt enhancements can delay or postpone an EVA. ISS: - 50 pfu at > 100 Me. V - shutdown the robotic arm - 100 pfu at > 100 Me. V - alert Mission Control. The Flight Team will start to evaluate a plan to shutdown equipment to prevent damage to electronics. - 200 pfu > 100 Me. V - plan is implemented

Highlights of Previous Year Accomplishments of Space Weather Program • The US Total Electron Content (USTEC) model was released as an official NWS test product. • Extension of the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) model into the upper atmosphere and ionosphere. • Satellite holdings were increased – Polar Orbiting Environmental Satellite (POES) Space Environment Monitor-II – Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) Ion Scintillation Monitor sensors. • National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) transitioned the real-time Assimilative Model of Ionospheric Electrodynamics (RT-AMIE) to the Solar Terrestrial Environment Laboratory (Nagoya University, Japan).