Rapporto CNEL sul mercato del lavoro Roma 30

The recovery is gaining momentum but there is no time for complacency • Unemployment

Unemployment has started to decline, but further progress is required… Unemployment rate % Percentage

… since the job recovery has not gone very fast yet. Employment-to-population ratio Percentage

People have borne considerable personal, economic and social costs • Among those who are

Long-term unemployment remains persistently high. Long-term unemployed (more than one year) % as a

Labour costs have grown at a much slower pace. This has played an important

… but the flip side is that many workers saw the real value of

. . . since fixed term contracts are increasingly used for new hires… Fixed-term

… albeit atypical jobs are not an automatic steppingstone to permanent work. Three-year transition

Not just more jobs but also better jobs are needed Job quality embraces a

There is little sign of a trade-off between job quantity and job quality across

Thank you Read more about our work Website: www. oecd. org/employment/outlook Follow us on

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Rapporto CNEL sul mercato del lavoro, Roma 30 Settembre, 2014 Stefano Scarpetta Direcotr for Employment, Labour and Social Affairs

The recovery is gaining momentum but there is no time for complacency • Unemployment has started to decline in the OECD, but further progress is required as the job recovery has not gone very fast yet. • People have borne considerable personal, economic and social costs that may prove to be long-lasting: – long-term unemployment remains persistently high, – many employees have experienced economic hardship. • Fixed term contracts are increasingly used for new hires, but they are not an automatic stepping-stone to permanent work. • Not just more jobs but also better jobs are needed. The good news is that there is little sign of a trade-off between job quantity and job quality across countries. 2

Unemployment has started to decline, but further progress is required… Unemployment rate % Percentage of the labour force 14 12 Current value (Q 4 2013) Start of the crisis (Q 4 2007) Country-specific peak Projected value (Q 4 2015) 10 8 6 4 2 0 Italy Euro area France OECD United Kingdom United States Canada Germany Japan 3

… since the job recovery has not gone very fast yet. Employment-to-population ratio Percentage of the working-age population (aged 15 or more) % 63 Current value (Q 4 2013) 61 Start of the crisis (Q 4 2007) 59 Country-specific trough 57 Projected value (Q 4 2015) 55 53 51 49 47 45 43 41 Canada United Kingdom Japan Germany United States OECD Euro area France Italy 4

People have borne considerable personal, economic and social costs • Among those who are unemployed, an increasing number of persons are out of work for 12 months or more, facing a depreciation of their skills and a risk of labour market exclusion. • Among those who have kept their jobs, many workers and their families have experienced economic hardship as a result of declines in the spending power of their earnings from work. 5

Long-term unemployment remains persistently high. Long-term unemployed (more than one year) % as a percentage of total unemployed 60 Q 4 2013 Start of the crisis (Q 4 2007) 50 40 30 20 10 0 Canada United States United Kingdom OECD France Japan Germany Euro area Italy 6

Labour costs have grown at a much slower pace. This has played an important role in helping the labour market weather the crisis… Unit labour cost growth Real wage growth Average annualised growth rate % 6 3 4 2 2 1 0 0 Q 1 2009 -Q 4 2013 Q 4 2007 -Q 1 2009 -2 -4 an p Ja ro Eu ea ar OE CD y e a m an anc nad It a do t m g r r S F Ca Kin d Ge te i d ite Un n U y al Q 1 2009 -Q 4 2013 -1 -2 s te om Un it ed Ki d ng Ita ly ro Eu ar ea an p Ja d te i Un s te a St y e a CD an ad anc E n m r r O F Ca Ge 7

… but the flip side is that many workers saw the real value of their earnings fall. Incidence of real wage cut in 2010 % Percentage of full-time job stayers (aged 15 -64, staying at least one year with the same employer) 70 Nominal wage cut Real wage cut 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 FIN NLD DNK SVN AUS LUX ITA POL AUT FRA BEL ALL DEU USA CZE GBR ESP GRC PRT EST 8

. . . since fixed term contracts are increasingly used for new hires… Fixed-term contracts among new hires % Percentage of employees with no more than three months of tenure 90 80 2011 -12 2006 -07 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 R TU K ST UT VA HE R UX EL RL ISL EU VK UN LL RC ZE IN TA LD RA E VN RT OL SP I N F SW S I F A G L C NO L B S H C P P E D GB L DN E A 9

… albeit atypical jobs are not an automatic steppingstone to permanent work. Three-year transition rates from temporary to permanent contracts % 60 Share of temporary employees in 2008 that were employed as full-time permanent employees in 2011 50 40 30 20 10 0 NLD GRC EST FRA ESP IRL ITA AUT BEL POL ALL PRT SWE LUX CZE SVN GBR FIN HUN SVK NOR ISL 10

Not just more jobs but also better jobs are needed Job quality embraces a range of aspects that matter for well-being: • Earnings quality: level and distribution of earnings; • Labour market security: risk and consequence of job loss in terms of lost income; • Quality of the working environment: extent to which workers have the resources they need to meet the demands of their jobs. 11

There is little sign of a trade-off between job quantity and job quality across countries… 12

Thank you Read more about our work Website: www. oecd. org/employment/outlook Follow us on Twitter : @OECD_Social