Range Cost Estimates Estimating Accuracy Trumpet Point estimates

Range Cost Estimates Estimating Accuracy Trumpet Point estimates are almost always wrong. Range estimates show risk and uncertainty as well as most likely. Point estimate for funding is “most likely” from the range estimate. OSD AT&L now requires two estimates at each oversight review: • Upper bound “will-cost” for funding • Lower bound “should-cost” for baseline and program execution A B C Concept Technology System Development Refinement Development & Demonstration Design Readiness Review Concept Decision Analogy Parametric Engineering IOC Production & Deployment FOC Operations & Support MDAP Process FRP Decision Review Actuals Cost Estimating Techniques

Range Cost Estimates – In Working Estimating Accuracy Trumpet Point estimates are almost always wrong. Range estimates show risk and uncertainty as well as most likely. Point estimate for funding is “most likely” from the range estimate. OSD AT&L now requires two estimates at each oversight review: • Upper bound “will-cost” for funding • Lower bound “should-cost” for baseline and program execution A B C Concept Technology System Development Refinement Development & Demonstration Design Readiness Review Concept Decision Analogy Parametric Engineering IOC Production & Deployment FOC Operations & Support MDAP Process FRP Decision Review Actuals Cost Estimating Techniques