Quelles limites lessor des renouvelables Cdric PHILIBERT Renewable
Quelles limites à l’essor des renouvelables? Cédric PHILIBERT Renewable Energy Division International Energy Agency 2ème journée de dialogue sur la transition énergétique, CNRS, Paris, 22 October 2013 © OECD/IEA 2013
Positive mid-term outlook for renewable electricity Global renewable electricity production, by technology Gas-fired generation 2016 Nuclear generation 2016 Source: Medium-Term Renewables Market Report 2013 n Renewable electricity projected to scale up by 40% from 2012 to 2018 n Broadly on track with 2020 IEA 2°C scenario targets © OECD/IEA 2013
The whole RE power mix accelerating its growth Forecast cumulative additions (TWh) Recent cumulative additions (TWh) 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2006 Hydro 2007 Wind 2008 2009 Bioenergy 2010 Solar 2011 2012 Geothermal 0 2012 Hydro 2013 Wind 2014 2015 Bioenergy 2016 Solar 2017 2018 Geothermal n Hydro remains the largest increasingle renewable technology n But for the first time additional generation from all non-hydro sources exceeds that from hydro © OECD/IEA 2013
Non-OECD accounts for two-thirds of growth Global renewable electricity production, by region n In 2018, non-OECD comprises 58% of total renewable generation, up from 54% in 2012 and 51% in 2006 n China leads with deployment of a broad portfolio of renewables n Other key markets: Brazil (wind, bioenergy), India (wind, solar, bioenergy), South Africa and Morocco (wind, solar), Thailand (bioenergy), Middle East (solar) © OECD/IEA 2013
RE largest contributor to total electricity increase in OECD Changes in power generation by source and region, OECD, 2012 -18 n Renewables expected to grow almost like fossils in America, and more than total demand in Europe © OECD/IEA 2013
Over the longer term, the power generation mix is set to change Global electricity generation by source, 2010 -2035 TWh 14 000 12 000 Coal Renewables 10 000 8 000 Gas 6 000 4 000 Nuclear 2 000 Oil 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2012 New Policies Scenario Renewables electricity generation overtakes natural gas by 2016 & almost coal by 2035; growth in coal generation in emerging economies outweighs a fall in the OECD © OECD/IEA 2013
Global climate-friendly electricity mix by 2050 Variables 32% 22% Renewables 57% 71% Renewables to provide 57 to 71% of World’s electricity by 2050 in 2 degree scenarios - VRE 22 to 32% © OECD/IEA 2013
Technology roadmap: Hydropower (2012) TWh Share on total electricity generation 19% 17% 16% Asia Pacific Middle East Africa Europe & Eurasia Central & South America North America China India Asean Other Asia Pacific Africa M. East OECD Europe Russia Transition eco. Brazil Other LAM+Mex Canada USA Hydropower generation will double by 2050 and reach 2 000 GW and 7 000 TWh, mostly from large plants in emerging/developing economies © OECD/IEA© 2012 OECD/IEA 2013
Technology Roadmap: Wind Power 2013 Update n Increased ambition for 2050: 15% to 18% of global electricity generation (vs. 12% in original 2009 roadmap) n Deployment in line with expectations for land-based wind n Significant technology evolution: l Growth in size, height and capacity l Greater capacity factors, easier access to sites with lower-speed winds, more power system-friendly making grid integration easier © OECD/IEA 2013
Wind power deployment to 2050 in the Roadmap Vision 20% 2 DS 18% 7000 16% Wind TWh/yr 6000 14% 5000 12% 4000 10% 3000 8% 6% 2000 4% 1000 of global electricity production 8000 2% 0 0% 2009 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 China OECD Europe United States Other Developing Asia Middle East OECD Asia Oceanic Other OECD NA Africa India Eastern Europe and FSU Latin America hi. Ren (TWh) share of total hi. Ren (share) n Wind power to provide 15% to 18% of global electricity n China, Europe and the USA together account for two thirds © OECD/IEA 2013
PV Module Prices n Technology improvements and economies of scale drive sharp cost reduction n Overcapacity leads to price setting below costs © OECD/IEA 2013
Rapid system cost decrease Solar PV system costs in Italy by size, EUR/W Source: GSE, 2013. Note: includes VAT. © OECD/IEA 2013
Why STE/CSP might survive the competition of PV n Higher costs but built-in thermal storage l When demand peaks after sunset! l If PV (plus minimum load of back-up, if any) already saturates demand at noon l Only competing option (for now): pump-hydro storage l Saudi Arabia plans for 2032: PV 16 GW and 25 GW STE/CSP; China’s plans for 2030 l STE very flexible, helps accommodating more PV (when replacing coal) © OECD/IEA 2013
Variable RE will need more Flexibility Grid infrastructure Dispatchable generation Storage Demand side integration l Value of flexibility has to be reflected in the market l Need for a suite of different flexibility options l GIVAR III study to be published in January 2014 © OECD/IEA 2013
The way forward: testing the limits n Under severe climate constraints… n What if other low-carbon energy options are not easily available? n Where are the technical limits to solar energy? l Assuming efficiency improvements and further electrification of buildings, industry and transport l Not always least cost, but affordable options l Footprint, variability and convenience issues n Three broad categories of situations: l Sunny and dry climates, where CSP dominates l Sunny and wet climates, with PV backed by hydro l Temperate climates, with wind power and PV backed by hydro, pumped-hydro and H 2 -NG plants © OECD/IEA 2010
Testing limits: key role of electricity n Electricity share keeps growing as efficient end- use technologies continue to penetrate markets Source: Heide et al. 2011 n Solar energy dominated by power (STE and PV) l Space heating needs reduced and satisfied with © OECD/IEA 2010 © OECD/IEA, 2011 ambient heat through heat pumps l Many options converging towards USD 100/MWh l Solar PV (and wind) electricity storage where STE is not feasible: pumped-hydro plants
Testing the limits: Electricity by 2060 ------ 3000 © OECD/IEA 2010 © OECD/IEA, 2012
500 000 km 2 of possible ground-based solar plants © OECD/IEA 2010
Testing limits: key results n Solar energy could provide a third of final energy after 2060 l If energy efficiency is greatly improved l Footprint and variability solvable issues n Solar energy, wind power, hydro power and biomass provide most of the world’s final energy demand l Other renewables important in places l Some uses of fossil fuels still required, but CO 2 emissions reduced to 3 Gt or less if CCS is available © OECD/IEA 2010
Rappel pour conclure © OECD/IEA 2013
Compléments © OECD/IEA 2010
Final energy use for heat in 2050 2°C Scenario n By 2050, renewables provide almost 50% of heat in buildings n Biomass is most important renewable energy source in industry in 2050 solar thermal contributes mainly to low-temperature heat demand © OECD/IEA 2013
© OECD/IEA, 2011 PSP: 99% of current on-grid storage n Pumped-hydro plants the reference solution l 140 GW in service, 50 GW in development n PSP developed from existing hydro plants l “off-stream” or “pumped-back” schemes l Small energy volumes but large power capacities l Daily/weekly storage does not require large areas Source: Inage 2009. © OECD/IEA 2012 © OECD/IEA 2013
Vision for PSP deployment by 2050 Low High China USA Europe Japan v. RE/total energy 21% 24% 43% 18% Hydro/total energy 14% 6% 13% 12% PSP/total capacity 4% 4% 6% 11% 2% GW 119 58 91 35 109 v. RE/total energy 34% 37% 48% 33% Hydro/total energy 15% 6% 11% 13% PSP/total capacity 5% 8% 10% 12% 3% 179 139 188 39 164 GW Ro. W Total 412 700 © OECD/IEA 2013
Distributed PV reaching “grid parity” in some markets n Economics of distributed PV for self-consumption improving rapidly n Difficult to quantify deployment – further monitoring needed Residential solar PV LCOE vs. average retail power prices (variable tariff) Examples correspond to Southern Germany, Southern California and Southern Italy. LCOEs use average residential system costs (include VAT and sales tax in California and Italy where they are applicable) and do not include financial incentives; ranges represent differences in financing costs and full load hours. The variable component of residential electricity prices calculated from average annual household electricity prices and estimation of fixed and variable components as reflected on a household electricity bill. In Germany and Italy, variable component is estimated at 91% while in California variable tariffs account for 99% of the bill. 2012 electricity prices are taken as proxy for 2013 in Germany and Italy where data not yet available. 2013 prices in California based on© 1 Q 2013. OECD/IEA 2013
Variability limits self-consumption Daily self-consumption example – a household with 5 -k. W PV system in Germany In grey, electricity drawn from the grid. In blue, electricity injected into the grid. In green, selfconsumption. Numbers indicate the percentage of self-consumed electricity. Horizontal axes: hours. Vertical axes: watts. Source: Génin, 2013. n Self-consumption higher for: l Some office and commerce buildings with high daily consumption, and relatively small systems on multi-storey dwellings n Self-consumption potentially increased with: l Load management l Decentralised electricity storage (if/when affordable) © OECD/IEA 2013
Paying for grid injected excess power Payment System FIT/FIP Where Observations • FIT below LCOE • Reduces FIT costs Net Metering Denmark, US • Netting period critical States, • Can over-reward Australia generation (Italy since July) • Overall level often capped Market based California • Likely to be more or avoided sustainable in long-term cost Germany © OECD/IEA 2013
Electricity System Implications Fixed Grid Cost Recovery Integration Costs • Depend on match of PV output and peak demand • Who pays as commercial power demand reduced? Need for better assessment More time-based pricing and different user profile-adjusted tariffs Foregone Tax System Concerns RE Surcharge © OECD/IEA 2013
- Slides: 28