Purpose of TDR Market Analysis To determine whether

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Purpose of TDR Market Analysis �To determine whether and where there is demand for

Purpose of TDR Market Analysis �To determine whether and where there is demand for development �over and above what’s permitted by baseline zoning �How that demand can be harnessed to conserve land �While providing an economic incentive for desired development

Potential Receiving Areas Analyzed �Bayview Ridge Urban Growth Area �City of Burlington �Rural Upzones

Potential Receiving Areas Analyzed �Bayview Ridge Urban Growth Area �City of Burlington �Rural Upzones

Bayview Ridge Urban Growth Area �Bonus units of residential density in BR-R (from 4

Bayview Ridge Urban Growth Area �Bonus units of residential density in BR-R (from 4 to 6 du/a) �Rezones from BR-Urban Reserve to BRResidential �Industrial Development

City of Burlington �Additional residential development in Commercial/Mixed Use zones �Opportunities for additional Commercial

City of Burlington �Additional residential development in Commercial/Mixed Use zones �Opportunities for additional Commercial intensity

Rural Upzones �CPAs/Rezones resulting in additional residential development potential �For example: from Rural Reserve

Rural Upzones �CPAs/Rezones resulting in additional residential development potential �For example: from Rural Reserve (1 du/10 acres) to Rural Intermediate (1 du/2. 5 acres, or 4 du/10 acres)

Preliminary conclusions �In short-term (1 -5 years), development not likely to generate significant number

Preliminary conclusions �In short-term (1 -5 years), development not likely to generate significant number of TDR transactions. �Demand down due to Great Recession �Significant residential zoning exists in Burlington and Bayview Ridge UGA

Nearest opportunities �The nearest-term TDR market opportunities may be for additional units of residential

Nearest opportunities �The nearest-term TDR market opportunities may be for additional units of residential density in: � The Bayview Ridge Residential (BR-R) zone, and � Certain Mixed Use (Commercial/Residential) zones in Burlington.

Medium to long-term �In the medium to long-term (5 – 20 years), consistent with

Medium to long-term �In the medium to long-term (5 – 20 years), consistent with the County’s and Burlington’s GMA planning horizons, more market potential will appear.

Medium to long-term �As existing capacity in the BR-R zone and Burlington Mixed Use

Medium to long-term �As existing capacity in the BR-R zone and Burlington Mixed Use Zones is used up, �And demand emerges to rezone additional land to or intensity those zones �Skagit County and Burlington could require TDR purchase for future rezones or intensification

Rural upzones �Few Rural Upzone proposals are considered/approved by County each year �But, there

Rural upzones �Few Rural Upzone proposals are considered/approved by County each year �But, there may be significant TDR purchasing power associated with upzones which create high-value rural lots. �This is another potential opportunity for a TDR purchase requirement.

Bayview Ridge Industrial �Given the information currently available, there does not appear to be

Bayview Ridge Industrial �Given the information currently available, there does not appear to be a ready opportunity to link TDR to Industrial development at Bayview Ridge

Burlington Commercial �May be TDR opportunity in Burlington if city is willing to consider

Burlington Commercial �May be TDR opportunity in Burlington if city is willing to consider a Floor to Area Ratio (FAR) limit on commercial intensity �Base FAR limit could be exceeded with a TDR purchase

Final phase of market analysis �Will draw on preliminary findings �Focus analysis on those

Final phase of market analysis �Will draw on preliminary findings �Focus analysis on those areas and issues most useful in determining TDR feasibility and implementation in Skagit County

More precise data on: �Developer ability-to-pay for TDR in receiving areas �Estimated value of

More precise data on: �Developer ability-to-pay for TDR in receiving areas �Estimated value of residential development rights in various potential sending site zones, and �Recommended exchange ratios to make TDR transactions viable in the marketplace.

Transactions mechanisms �Recommendations on what type of “transaction mechanisms” most viable in Skagit County

Transactions mechanisms �Recommendations on what type of “transaction mechanisms” most viable in Skagit County given market conditions and desire to complement Farmland Legacy Program: �Simple buyer-seller �TDR bank �Density credit fees

Bonus densities at Bayview Ridge �Final phase of market analysis will provide essential market

Bonus densities at Bayview Ridge �Final phase of market analysis will provide essential market data for implementing bonus density provisions in BVR subarea plan and PUD ordinance