Public sentiment is everything With public sentiment nothing

Public sentiment is everything. With public sentiment nothing can fail. Without it nothing can succeed. – Abraham Lincoln

Oregon Public Opinion on Climate Policy April 5 -18, 2008 N= 402 moe=4%(variations otherwise noted) Not for Release Policy. Interactive & Northwest Survey and Data Services Funded by Oregon Community Foundation Part 1 – Topline Results (with some comparison poll data)

Climate Policy – Public Opinion Purpose of Survey: • Public sense of awareness & urgency • Compare Oregon & national opinions (for utility) • Baseline & tracking information pool • Cultural opinion of climate change? • Linkages between values and opinions? • What motivates people?

Survey Consultants, Reviewers & Contributors • • • Steve Johnson & Assoc. ; Northwest Survey & Data Services Dan Kahan, Director, Yale Cultural Cognition Project Anthony Leiserowitz; Director, Yale Project on Climate Change Tom Eiland; Partner, CFM Research Steve Bella, Center for State Innovation Tom Bowerman, Project Director

First Question Generally speaking, would you say that things in Oregon are headed in the right direction or would you say they’re on the wrong track? (G 1) Question purpose: • Good mental warm-up • Elicits lots of information quickly • Gives baseline tracking comparison • Problem perception indicates openness to change, conditionally. • Provides useful correlate to cross-tabs

Generally speaking, would you say that things in Oregon are headed in the right direction or would you say they’re on the wrong track? (G 1)

I am going to read a list of possible policies which may require more revenue and might raise your taxes. For each possible policy, tell me if you strongly support, oppose, or strongly oppose it. ( PP 1 -PP 9) (Probe on support response: “even if your taxes might go up? ”)

You may have heard that the world’s temperature has been rising over the past 100 years. Are you extremely concerned, very concerned, somewhat concerned, not too concerned or not concerned at all? (CC 1 T 1)

“Climate Change” Concern Question Comparison Oregon to Nation

You may have heard that the world’s temperature has been rising over the past 100 years. Are you extremely concerned, very concerned, somewhat concerned, not too concerned or not concerned at all? (Oregon & National Comparison) Solid Bars: Oregon: PI/NSDS Poll April 2008 Hatched Bars: USA: ABC/Washington Post/Stanford University April 2007 n = 1002 (diff question: “How important is global warming to you personally? ”

Do you worry a great deal about global warming? Gallup Tracking 18 years

“Climate Change” or “Global Warming” Does it make a difference in response? Split Sample Response Results

I’d like to ask you a few questions about CLIMATE CHANGE / GLOBAL WARMING. You may have heard that the world’s temperature has been rising over the past 100 years. Are you extremely concerned, very concerned, somewhat concerned, not too concerned or not concerned at all? Split Sample: Blue: Climate Change n=174 moe 7. 4%; Red: Global Warming n=228 moe=6. 5%

Looking ahead 50 years from today, do you think global warming will be a major threat to human life on earth, a minor threat, or not a threat? (CC 8)

Compare Oregon to Nation Similar Question

Looking ahead 50 years from today, do you think global warming will be a major threat to human life on earth, a minor threat, or not a threat? (Oregon & USA Compared) Hatched Bars From Princeton Research Assoc. Aug 1 2007 USA n=1002 Dotted bars from Yale Cultural Cognition project. March 2008 USA n=2000, uses different question & scale

Climate Policy Response must recognize: Global warming is not a top tier issue

Is this issue very important to you?

National & state trending is slow and spotty. Climate concern appears to be dropping in 2008. Therefore, we’re looking for other key drivers: “…which of the following pairs of statements comes closest to your own view, even if it doesn’t exactly match how you feel? ”

Which do you agree with more -Global warming is… (CC 13)

About climate change, do you think CC 9

On climate change, do you think most of your neighbors would… CC 10

Which statement do you agree with most: (E 1)

Which do you agree with more: (E 2)

Split sample variation in moral slant/moral neutral question test American privilege v. world rights

Which do you agree with most: Split A: CC 14 a n= 174 (MOE 7. 4%)

Which do you agree with most: Split B: CC 14 b n= 228 (MOE 6. 5%)

Test Message “Affect” of the “Crisis” or Dire Consequences

Please tell me your opinion of the accuracy of this statement: A growing number of scientists are saying that climate change is probably much more serious than previously believed. Instead of a 2 degree global temperature rise, they are saying that temperature averages could rise between 7 – 20 degrees; raising sea levels by 20 or more feet, flooding out hundreds of millions. In short, they say there is a reasonable possibility there will be mass suffering. Do you find this: Very believable; somewhat believable; a bit of an exaggeration; or a total exaggeration?

Future Crisis Statement: (CC 7)

Where do you look for leadership & solutions?

Who do you trust for leadership and solutions to global climate change? (P 1 -P 8)

World-views in personal & cultural decision-making.

World-view Predispositions: OK, I’ll read some values people sometimes disagree over, please tell me how you feel about each statement. • Strongly Agree • Disagree • Strongly Disagree If Volunteered, Record: • Refused • Did not Answer (Questions Rotate)

We need to dramatically reduce the inequalities between rich and poor, whites and people of color, and men and women. (W 1) Question source: Yale Cultural Cognition Project

It’s society’s responsibility to make sure everybody’s needs are met. (W 2) Question source: Yale Culture Cognition Project

Our country would be a better place if we all consumed less. (W 3) Policy. Interactive Question

Most individuals who belong to environmental organizations are extremists (W 4) Question source: Michael Adams, Environics

“Most individuals who belong to environmental organizations are extremists” perception explored further Oregon Results Compared to 2004 Environics National Survey Also note related ascending libertarian values

LIBERTARIAN VALUES ASCENDING American Environics n=2500, four year tracking poll General USA Trends in American Opinions 1992 -2004

The father must be master of the home (W 5) Question source: Environics

There is one true path to God and you’re either on it or you’re astray (W 6) Question source: Environics

Key Findings

Do not expect strong voluntary individual actions. Leadership is essential to move policy forward.

Strong Public Perception: Solutions will require lifestyle changes much more than technical inventions and fixes (78 -19%)

Message Frame “Climate Change” or “Global Warming”? • Not statistically significant difference • “Climate Change” appears to reduce polarization • Use “Global Warming” to activate base

“Future Crisis” message shows no gain, tends to solidify polarization.

Public Concern Trends Global Warming • Public concern statistically flat over 18 years • Core support group stuck at +/- 30% • Global warming remains a lower tier issue

Perceptions of “willingness to address climate change” hovers around 50% BUT Perception of Desirability to Reduce Consumption about 80 -90%!

Cross tabs show strong conservative support for deconsumption message, especially among hierarchists* and religious right wing*. *(with high m. o. e. )

DEMOGRAPHICS • Age – 1920 - 1990 • Geographic Locale – Oregon disbursed • Registered Voter – 95% (normal false response) • Party Preference – R 15; D 36; R&D 42 VI 6 • Children / At home - 83%/20% • Income </> median - 40/51 Refused 7 • Gender – M 38 / F 61 • (note demographic skews – analysis implications) Other Data: • Comments Recorded • Recruitment for further polling

Research Directions: • Test “Reduce Consumption” – (86% agreement) but – will it stick? • Probe “reorder our values” (54/37) but – what does it mean? • World citizenship & responsibility • Probe role of government in solutions • Expand search for other key policy drivers • Survey #2 planning -- anxiety over fuel costs as a policy and attitude driver. [end]