Public Planning in Pakistan By Engr Dr Attaullah

Public Planning in Pakistan By; Engr. Dr. Attaullah Shah BSc Engg ( Gold Medlaist), MSc Engg ( Strs), MBA, MA ( Eco) MSc Envir Design, PGD Computer Sc, Tel: 051 -9250100 E-mail: pdaiou@yahoo. com.

What is Planning? What needs to be done by whom and when n Setting of objectives for an organization and establishing the policies, procedures, programs necessary to achieve them. n Why? n To reduce uncertainty n Improve efficiency n Better understanding of objectives n Provide Base for Monitoring and Controlling. Types: n Strategic Planning: Five years or moren Tactical Planning: One to two years. n Operational Planning: One day to few months n

Component of Planning n n n n n Objectives: Goals and targets. Program: Strategy and Major actions. Schedule: Plan of start and finish of individual and group activities. Budget: Planned Expenditures required to achieve or exceed objectives. Forecast: Projection that will happen at some future date? Organization: Design , NO. and kinds of positions along with corresponding duties and responsibilities to achieve or exceed organizational objectives. Policy: General guidelines for decision making. Procedure: A detailed Method of carrying out a policy. Standard: A level of individual or group performance defined as acceptable and adequate. WHAT IS VISION?

Seven Principles of Sound Public Policy #1: Free people are not equal, and equal people are not free. n #2: What belongs to you, you tend to take care of; what belongs to no one or everyone tends to fall # into disrepair. n #3: Sound policy requires that we consider longrun effects and all people, not simply short-run effects and a few people. n #4: If you encourage something, you get more of it; if you discourage something, you get less of it n #5: Nobody spends somebody else's money as carefully as he spends his own. #6: Government has nothing to give anybody except what it first takes from somebody, and a government that's big enough to give you everything you want is big enough to take away n

n n Major challenges to Developing Nations Achievement of economic independence, Overcoming backwardness and Poverty Alleviation Implementation of socio-economic transformation. Sustainable development. n Planning is a dynamic process, a method of analysis and thinking which may or may not involve the preparation of comprehensive legally binding blueprint for socio-economic development. n In essence, a plan is a package of economic and social policies expressed with quantified targets and objectives to be achieved during a laid-down

n n n n History of Planning Bodies in Pakistan Development Board was established early in 1948 In 1950 a Six-Year Development Plan was formulated and embodied in the Colombo Plan for Cooperative Economic Development in South and South East Asia. . Planning Board: 18 th July, 1953, To develop the resources of the country as rapidly as possible so as to promote the welfare of the people, provide adequate living standards, and social services, secure social justice and equality of opportunity to all and aim at the widest and most equitable distribution of national wealth. Planning Commission On 22 nd October 1958, the President was pleased to re-designate the National Planning Board as the Planning Commission. Federal Ministries/Divisions The Federal Ministries are responsible for the preparation of programmes and projects in their respective fields of interest including autonomous organizations under their control

Conceptual Plans. Perspective Plan-Vision Plan ( Ex: 2030 Vision) n To provide a long-term (15 -25 years) economic and social policy framework so that the objectives to be achieved over a much longer period can be incorporated in a medium-term framework. Five Year Plan: n A five year plan is a general statement of objectives and targets relating to the economy as a whole and its various component sectors. Roll-On Plan n In order to bring flexibility into the Five Year, a roll-on plan of medium term is designed in which the sectoral and project-wise position is adjusted according to the foregoing year Annual Plan n It is regarded as the implementation side of the five year plan. n The annual plan includes an evaluation of past

Public Sector Development Program PSDP n The Public Sector Development Programme n n n (PSDP) is an annual document which lists all the public sector projects/ programmes with specific allocations made for each one of them in that particular financial year. ( 1920 Projects in 2006 -07) Federal Vs Provincial Projects Major share of the total Development Programme is allocated to Federal projects While the remainder is allocated to the Provincial Development Programme.

FEASIBILITY STUDY Pre-requisite for preparation of a major development project on sound lines, and is not ruled out even for a minor one Preparation/Processing of PC-II. n For Large projects of cost 500 Million or more n Consultants are appointed for pre-feasibility. n The consultancy charges should not exceed 10% PC-I/Project Feasibility: n n n Part 'A' is the "Project Digest", containing eight questions which are more or less common to all sectoral PC-Is forms. Part 'B' entitled "Project Description and Financing", Part 'C' deals with "Project Requirements".

n n n PC-III Proforma Designed to furnish information on the progress of ongoing projects on quarterly basis PC-IV & V Proformae PC-IV form is required to be submitted at the time when the project is adjudged to be complete while the PC-V form is to be furnished on an annual basis for a period of five years by the agencies responsible for operation and maintenance of the projects. Umbrella PC-I Some times a Federal Ministry is required to prepare a PC-I having provincial components to be financed through a joint loan by a donor agency.

Project Appraisal. n Technical Analysis n The analysis for determining the technical viability of the development project is based on the technical data and information given in the PC-I form as well as the earlier experience of carrying out similar projects. n Institutional/Organizational/Managerial Analysis n A whole range of issues in project preparation revolves around the overlapping institutional, organizational and managerial aspects of the project. n Social Analysis n Social analysis is undertaken to examine the aspects like employment opportunities and income distribution. n Commercial Analysis n The commercial aspects of a project include the arrangements for marketing the output produced by the project and the arrangement for the supply of inputs needed to build and operate the project n Financial Analysis n Financial analysis involves assessment of financial impact, judgment of efficient resource use, assessment of incentives, provision of a sound financing plan, coordination of financial contribution and assessment of financial management competence.

Economic Analysis n Analysis from the economic aspect assesses the desirability of an investment proposal in terms of its effect on the economy. Remarks: n The planning process in Pakistan starts with the PC 1. This is a document, which by its very nature excludes any public discussion and debate and in fact, makes it redundant. To avoid the disasters we have experienced in the name of development, it is imperative that discussions and consultations between citizens and government agencies take place at the conceptual level of the project. n

PROJECT APPROVING BODIES National Economic Council (NEC) –CEO/PM as Chie ( No limit) n Executive Committee of National Economic Council (ECNEC) Above 500 M n Headed by the Federal Minister of Finance/ Adviser to the Prime Minister for Finance and Economic and Planning. n Economic Coordination Committee of the Cabinet (ECC) n Headed by the Federal Minister for Finance and Federa Ministers of economic ministries as its members. It attends to all urgent day-to-day economic matters and coordinates the economic policies initiated by the various Divisions of the Government n

n n n Central Development Working Party (CDWP) Headed by the Deputy Chairman, Planning Commission and which includes as its members the Secretaries of the Federal Ministries concerned with the development and the heads of the Planning Departments of the Provincial Governments. Departmental Development Working Party (DDWP/DSC) Headed by the respective Secretary/ Head of Department and includes representatives of Finance Division and concerned Technical Section in the Planning and Development Division. Provincial Working Party (PDWP): headed by the Chairman, Development Board/Additional Chief Secretary (Development) and includes Secretaries of the Provincial Departments

Planning History of Pakistan n By 1950 a six-year plan drafted. But the initial effort was unsystematic. First Five-Year Plan (1955 -60). Not implemented, because political instability led to a neglect of economic policy, but in 1958 the government renewed its commitment to planning by establishing the Planning Commission. n n The Second Five-Year Plan (1960 -65) surpassed its major goals when all sectors showed substantial growth. n Third Five-Year Plan (1965 -70), designed along the lines of its immediate predecessor, produced only modest growth.

• The Fifth Five-Year Plan (1978 -83) was an attempt to stabilize the economy and improve the standard of living of the poorest segment of the population. Increased defense expenditures and a flood of refugees to Pakistan after the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in December 1979. n. The Sixth Five-Year Plan (1983 -88) represented a significant shift toward the private sector. n. The Seventh Five-Year Plan (1988 -93) provided for total publicsector spending of Rs 350 billion. n. Eighth Five-Year Plan (1993 -98): The Plan, which ended up in achieving far less than proposed development targets, dealt with the issues of sustainable environment and management of water resources.

n Ninth Five-Year Plan (1998 -2003): Could not materialize due to change of Government. n Ten-Year Perspective Development Plan (20012011): By adopting strategies to reach the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), the Ten-Year Perspective Development Plan was launched into operation on 1 st July, 2001. Its total size has been fixed at Rs. 11, 287 billion in current prices out of which Rs. 8, 747 billion have been envisaged as the investment of private sector and Rs. 2, 540 billion as Public Sector Development Program (PSDP).

Millennium Development Goals. Goal 1: Eradicating Extreme Poverty and Hunger Goal 2: Achieving Universal Primary Education. Goal 3: Promoting Gender Equality and Women Empowerment. Goal 4: Reducing Child Mortality. Goal 5: Improving Maternal Health. Goal 6: Combating HIV/AIDS, Malaria and other Diseases. Goal 7: Ensuring Environmental Sustainability.

MTDF 2005 -10 is to Eventually Realize the Long Term Vision 2030 Developed, industrialized, just and prosperous Pakistan through rapid and sustainable development in a resource constrained economy by deploying knowledge inputs.

MTDF 2005 -10: Objectives n Establishing a just and sustainable economic system for reducing poverty and achieving Millennium Development Goals n Organised and disciplined movement towards an efficient, balanced, internationally competitive, environment friendly, and technologically driven knowledge economy for rapid and sustainable growth to become an industrialized nation in 25 years n Evolving a mature, tolerant, democratic society which is developed economically, culturally, ethically and imbibed with Islamic values of moderation and enlightenment, and at peace with itself and with the rest of the world

e ur ult ric Ag (PM and his team Integratedassisted by System With Checks Planning & Balances Commission) (All Ministries) Associate Stakeholders Prov . in Govts Decision making (Concerned Support Ministries and Infrastructure organizations) Manufacturing M in in g & NR Se rv ic es (All Ministries) Planning Commission Policy Instruments to assist for avoiding No conflicts -Presidents Long Term Vision -Integrated Approach -Result Orientation -Team(PM Work and (MOST & Innovative Expansion of Hec) Technological Base Technology HRD (HEC + MOE + Prov. Human Resource Govt. ) Development his Team) Complete National Planning Commission Roadmap in consultation for with all stake seamless holders development National Vocational Training Authority) (All Ministries) Input from Technical Prov . & Professional Orgns. Govts

The MTDF Size Rs Billion 2004 -05 2005 -06 2009 -10 2005 -10 Total Investment Fixed Investment Private 1102. 6 1257. 4 1967. 5 7951. 9 999. 3 1145. 6 1815. 7 7298. 5 Public 286. 2 356. 2 712. 1 2536. 7 (PSDP) (202) (272) (597) (2042) 713. 1 789. 5 1103. 6 4761. 8

Overall PSDP by Objectives Rs Billion Objective Upgrading physical infrastructure Achieving Millennium Development Goals Balanced Development Accelerating output growth Others Total MTDF Allocation 993. 2 % share 681. 5 33. 4 270. 1 13. 2 66. 3 3. 2 30. 9 2, 042. 0 48. 6 1. 5 100. 0

Employment Generation (2005 -10) Employment 2004 -05 Benchmark 2005 -06 2006 -07 2007 -08 2008 -09 2009 -10 Total (6) – (1) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Agriculture 18. 59 18. 74 18. 90 19. 07 19. 24 19. 42 0. 84 Manufacturing 5. 92 6. 11 6. 30 6. 51 6. 72 6. 95 1. 03 Electricity & Gas 0. 29 0. 30 0. 01 Construction 2. 52 2. 62 2. 73 2. 85 2. 98 3. 11 0. 59 Wholesale & Retail Trade 6. 39 6. 72 7. 09 7. 48 7. 91 8. 36 1. 97 Transport & Communication 2. 47 2. 55 2. 62 2. 70 2. 79 2. 89 0. 41 Finance & Insurance 0. 46 0. 47 0. 48 0. 49 0. 03 Community and Social Services 6. 48 6. 83 7. 21 7. 63 8. 08 8. 57 2. 09 Total 43. 15 44. 36 45. 66 47. 04 48. 53 50. 12 6. 97 Sector

PAKISTAN- Vision 2030 n Developed, industrialized, just and prosperous Pakistan through rapid and sustainable development in a resource constrained economy by deploying knowledge inputs

n n n n The Global Paradigm for Pakistan Only those countries would grow rich and powerful in the 21 st century who: Position Themselves for Competitive Advantage Generate Knowledge and Innovate for High Growth • Use Globalization to Attract Relocation of Manufacturing , Design , and Services • Attract and Retain Foreign Funds including Foreign Private Investment Move Rapidly into Regional and Global Hubs FAILURE WILL LEAD TO MARGINALISATION

Critical Challenges and Opportunities • Dispersion of information and technology • Climatic change • Depleting natural resources of water, land, and usable energy making Pakistan vulnerable • Urban concentrations and growth of large cities with completely different dynamics affecting all spheres of human activities • Major demographic transitions

Many Challenges for 2030: Take Just Four n n n Energy Water and Agriculture Demographics Urbanization Energy for Growth: Energy security plan 2030 already approved (MTDF) Total primary energy consumption to rise 7 fold (55 to 360 MTOE by 2030) Power generation : from 19, 540 MW to 162, 590 MW Major shift planned: to coal, nuclear, and renewable Pakistan is running out of useable, affordable energy … more efficient use absolutely vital

n n Water and Agriculture High growth rates in agriculture unrealizable with: Present technology, practice and attitude Low water storage, high wastage Sub-optimal cropping pattern n Demographics: 218 million in 2030 (over 60 % urban) n To realize the dividend of demographic transition investment in HRD is of critical importance: Employment opportunities Productivity increase n n

n Urbanization 2030 Global Urban Dwellers exceeded those in rural areas for the first time in human history in 2005 … [Shenzhen, a small town, now has reached a higher population than London in only 20 years] n In Pakistan, too, more and more settlements will grow into their equilibrium size – optimal and functional hierarchies of settlements. n Pakistan’s urban population is projected to increase from the current 55 million to about 130 m by 2030 n … another 70 -80 million people in only 25 years! n Housing? Services? Slums? Unemployment? Social n

The Changing Face of Competition Competitive advantage will be achieved through: – Excellence of public institutions – Knowledge, information, skill levels and competence in technology …. . and its assimilation – Macroeconomic environment restructuring and reform of the educational system – Enablers of the knowledge economy – Legal and regulatory infrastructure for IPR and n

Salient Features of Vision 2030 Fulfill the promise of a gifted nation by using knowledge and all its manifestations to become an affluent and progressive society n Raise quality of life for all citizens and regions of Pakistan n Achieve competence in technology n Evolve a mature democratic and just society n Be an effective global player, not a target n …… Achieve all this within one generation n

Pakistan Society 2030 n n n n n Development measured by the quality of life A prosperous society: – GDP to rise to USD 700 billion – High per capita incomes : rising to USD 3, 000 Alleviation of poverty Higher indices for health, education and life expectancy Social safety nets An equitable society: Common and shared destiny and vision Respect for the rule of law Equal opportunities for all Protection of every citizen irrespective of ethnicity,

Pakistan Economy 2030 Availability and quality of physical infrastructure n Excellence of public institutions n Internationally competitive, innovative, environment friendly and technology driven n Higher levels of investment n Improvement in productivity through higher skills, knowledge inputs, better governance structures, improved quality and encouraging brand names n Many more regional hubs and centers n Major reduction in wastage n Preserving inter-generational equity while exploiting the natural resources n

25 Years’ Quest for Excellence (Examples) n n n Education: At least 10 universities would be among the top 200 globally recognized. Communications Would be at the centre of major North-South and East-West transport corridors. Technology Centers Known for its competitiveness, innovation, and productivity

What should Karachi look like in 2030? One of the great cities of the world, noted for its quality of life. n A diverse yet socially cohesive population of around 30 million pulsing with commerce and industry with creative ideas n Schools and universities eagerly sought for their educationally stimulating environments, with excellent and affordable healthcare facilities. n A regional hub for electronics, pharmaceuticals and biotechnology, as well as financial services n A major hub for travel sitting at the southern end of a major transport corridor n All major cities and urban centers will define such n

Essence of Survival “Every morning in Africa, a Gazelle wakes up, it knows it must run faster than the fastest Lion or it will be killed. Every morning a Lion wakes up, it knows it must outrun the slowest Gazelle or it will starve to death. It does not matter whether you are a Lion or a Gazelle – when the sun comes up; You’d better be running. ”

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