PUBLIC OPINION Public Opinion Definition and Significance Popular

PUBLIC OPINION

Public Opinion: Definition and Significance • Popular sovereignty means the will of the people – public opinion should guide politics • Public opinion refers to: – attitudes, values, and beliefs that individuals hold towards: • public figures, govt institutions, and public issues

Opinion Formation • Where do our opinions come from? – Opinion formation process is not entirely rational – Mostly we depend upon cues from “opinion leaders” such as: • • Parents Teachers news media well informed friends

Question • What impact have social media and the internet had on opinion formation?

Role of Political Knowledge • • • Necessary for well informed opinions Better informed=higher political engagement Better informed=greater efficacy – Efficacy: The sense that one can have an effect on government, that one’s opinions and actions will matter • But many Americans lack basic knowledge about US government

Irrational Attitudes • Likelihood of dying from terrorist attack 1 in 20 million; more likely to die from car accident or flu. • 2019 - 16% now see it as most important problem – Doesn’t rank today

Most Americans Hold Inconsistent Beliefs

Cognitive Biases in Opinion Formation • Bandwagon effect, or groupthink • Confirmation bias – listen only to those we agree with • Expectation bias – ignoring information that conflicts with one’s expectations • Hostile media effect – seeing the media as biased if one disagrees with it

Public Attitudes Towards Government • What might explain these changes in public attitudes in government? • What do you think trust in government is today?

Presidential Job Approval • A key component of a president’s political support and a power resource to use when dealing with Congress • One of the oldest data sets in public opinion, since 1946

Presidential Job Approval Ratings • Go to Gallup Presidential Job Approval Center online. http: //www. gallup. com/poll/124922/Presidential-Approval-Center. aspx? ref=interactive • What are some of the general trends in presidential job approval? • What factors influence these ratings?

Answers • Public approval declines the longer the president is in office. Why? • “Rally round the flag effect” – public approval rises when US is at war. Why? • Pocketbook effect – public approval rises and falls with the economy. Why?

Approval Ratings by Party • Note growing partisan polarization (distance)

Right Direction/Wrong Direction • Another measure of overall public satisfaction. • Why is it so low? What are the implications?

“Most Important Problem” for Public • See chart here: https: //news. gallup. com/poll/1675/mostimportant-problem. aspx • Which one do YOU think is most important? – Go to Microsoft teams and tell me which THREE you think are the most important and why • This will be your participation grade for today

Take This News Quiz • https: //www. pewresearch. org/quiz/the-news-iq-quiz/ • How do you compare? – Take either the Census Quiz, Fact from Opinion Quiz or What do you know about the US government Quiz https: //www. nytimes. com/interactive/2021/03/30/learning/30 -News-Quiz-For-Students. html

Summation • Americans’ public opinions tend to be uninformed, irrational, and biased • Public opinion surveys give us insight into public attitudes towards government in general, presidential approval, general satisfaction, and the most important issues for Americans