Public Opinion and Polling Unit 4 AP Government

Public Opinion and Polling Unit 4 AP Government

Public Opinion What the public thinks about a particular issue or set of issues at any point in time.

Political ID Card Due Monday l l l Place yourself on the classic spectrum! Make an ID Card that represents YOU! You’ll need: l 1 index card l Creativity!!

Political Ideology l l What we believe and why… Political Ideology Definitions l l l A comprehensive, integrated set of views about government and politics A coherent set of ideas of on how people should live together A plan of action for applying these ideas

1. Our Ideology Comes from Our… Political Culture l Political Culture is the widely shared beliefs, values and norms concerning the relationship of citizens to government and to one another.

2. Our Ideology Comes from Political l The process by which we are taught Socialization and develop our individual and collective political beliefs l A lifelong process by which people form their ideas about politics and acquire political values. The family, educational system, peer groups, and the mass media all play a role. While family and school are important early in life, what our peers think and what we read in the newspaper and see on television have more influence on our political attitudes as adults.

Who are the “Public” in Public Opinion Polls? ? 1. The Elite l l l Those with disproportionate amount of political resources. They raise issues and help set national agenda. They influence the resolution of issues. 2. The Attentives: l Those with an active interest in government and politics 3. The Masses l Those with little interest in government and politics.

Understanding Public Opinion l l Most of the American public shows little awareness and interest in politics. Surveys show substantial lack of political knowledge on part of public: l l Identifying political figures Identifying key issues

Important Questions to Ponder l l l Who is in charge of creating policy? How does Public Opinion Become Policy? Are there politics involved? How is reliable information gathered? To whom should the “government” listen to?

How is Public Opinion Measured? l By elections l By Polls

How is Public Opinion Measured? l By elections l l How we vote including party positions on issues Initiatives (allow citizens to propose legislation and submit it to popular vote. ) Referendums (allows legislatures to submit proposed legislation for popular approval. ) By Polls l By straw polls l l Unscientific surveys used to gauge public opinions By scientific polls l Uses representative sampling methods

Problems with these Methods l Elections l l l Not always accurate because only voters participate More in Unit 6! Polling l By straw polls l l No sampling makes them NOT accurate By scientific polls l Most are accurate but will have margin of error which can mislead in close races

Social Cleavages l Social cleavage is a concept used in voting analysis and is the division of voters into voting blocs. Cleavage separates the voters into advocates and adversaries on a certain issue. l Cross-cutting l The most common cleavages center around the agents of political socialization: Family Gender Education SES Peers Region Race Age Religion Media l cleavages are those that pull individuals into different directions Polarizing cleavages are those that pull individuals in the same direction

Family l What do we mean? ? ? l Parents and other family members l Most influential agent of socialization

Family/Parents and Politics l l Our first political ideas are shaped within the family. l Parents seldom “talk politics” with their young children directly, but casual remarks made around the dinner table or while helping with homework can have an impact. Family tradition is particularly a factor in party identification, as indicated by the phrases “lifelong Republican” and “lifelong Democrat. ”

Compare the Child’s Party with the Parents’ Party Parent Democrat Parent Independent Parent Republican Child Democrat 66% 29% 13% Child Independent 27% 53% 36% Child Republican 7% 17% 51%

Education l What do we mean? ? ? l K-12 courses reinforce good citizenship Civics § Pledge of Allegiance § Serves as a foundation for an understanding of politics §

Education Level and Politics l The higher the level, the more likely there will be involvement in politics Master’s degree or higher l College graduate l Some college l High school graduate l High school dropout l

Peers l What do we mean? ? ? l Friends and others in age group l How important? ? l More important in later grades than early grades

Peers and Politics l Although peer pressure certainly affects teenagers' lifestyles, it is less evident in developing their political values. l Exceptions are issues that directly affect them, such as the Vietnam War during the 1960 s. l Millennials seem to be more political than expected

Race and Ethnic Differences l What do we mean? ? ? l Racial groups and sub-groups l How important? l Exceptionally important especially when considering hot-button issues like immigration and health insurance

Race and Ethnic and Politics l l Racial and ethnic minorities tend to favor affirmative action programs designed to equalize income, education, professional opportunity, and the receipt of government contracts. There are often deep differences between groups in their perceptions of the judicial system and the role of the police in society. l Recent police shootings in FL and MO

Religion l What do we mean? ? ? American political culture can be linked to the idea of the Protestant work ethic l Believers and non-believers may vote in different ways l l How important? ? l Important especially hot button issues like abortion and gay marriage

Religion and politics l l The concept of the separation of church and state does not prevent religion from acting as a force in American politics. It is important to recognize, however, that the major religious groups in the United States—Protestant, Catholic, and Jewish as well as the growing Islamic—have their own liberal and conservative wings that frequently oppose each other on political issues.

Gender l What do we mean? ? ? l There are gender differences in political beliefs l How important? ? l Women and men hold different views about politics

Gender and politics The term “Gender Gap” refers to the varying political opinions men and women hold, l Studies indicate that more women than men approve of gun control, want stronger environmental laws, oppose the death penalty, and support spending on social programs. l

SES l What do we mean? l Socio-economic status l How important? ? l Contributes to hot- button issue, voting record AND turnout

Social/Economic (SES) Level l Low-income Americans tend to endorse a stronger economic role for the federal government than do wealthier Americans, particularly by supporting programs such as welfare and increases in the minimum wage.

Section/Region l What do we mean? l The region of the country a person lives in can affect political attitudes. l How important? l Can contribute to viewpoints on some hot-button issues

Section/Region l Most important regions are l South or Sunbelt states l Northeast or New England states l Western states l Midwest states l Great Lakes Region is sometimes called the Rust Belt

Section/Region and Politics l l The Southern states tend to support a strong defense policy, a preference reinforced by the presence of many military installations in the region. Midwesterners support agricultural price supports Westerners are interested in water rights and access to public lands. Questions about Social Security and Medicare have an added importance in the Sunbelt states with their high percentage of older adults.

Age l What do we mean? l Age groups and events that have an effect l How important? ? l Has a decided effect especially when concerning government programs for older Americans

What do you believe was one of the most important events of the 20 th century?

Traditionalist “The Greatest Generation” 1922 -1945 Baby Boomers 1946 -1964 • The Great • The Civil Depression Rights • World War II Movement • The Cold War • Television • Economic prosperity Generation X 1965 -1980 Millennial 1981 -2000 • MTV • Globalization • AIDS of information • Personal • The Great computers Recession • September 11 • The Internet/i. Pod • Social networking

Age and Politics • Older Americans tend to oppose increases in public school spending while supporting Social Security & Medicare increases. • While some younger Americans are concerned that Social Security won’t be around when they retire, favor changes, public school financing, and other issues many are apathetic and disconnected.

Media l What do we mean? ? ? l How we receive our news l TV, radio, the Internet, newspapers, magazines l How important? ? l How/where we get our news can contribute to our political beliefs

Media Influences Or as Larry Sabato says: It’s a Feeding Frenzy!! • The amount of time the average American family watches TV still makes it the most important information source. • TV helps shape public opinion by providing news and analysis, but also its entertainment programming addresses important contemporary issues that are in the political arena, such as drug use, abortion, and crime.

1 st Public Opinion Poll l l The first public opinion research goes back to July 24, 1824 (For Presidential Election) The Harrisburg Pennsylvanian issued a report of a straw vote done at Wilmington, Del. , "without discrimination of parties. " l l Andrew Jackson received 335 votes John Quincy Adams, 169 votes Henry Clay, 19 votes William H. Crawford, 9 votes So…Who won in November? ?

Historical Errors with Straw Polls l l Literary Digest mailed postcards to potential voters and predicted every election from 1920 to 1932 Famously was unable to predict 1936 because of these errors 1. 2. 3. Sample drawn from upper class and wealthy only Bad timing-Mailings went out in early September Mailings were sent back by self-motivated individuals- the “self-selection” rule which invalidated the sample as random

The Gallup Poll l Dr. George Gallup predicted the outcome of the 1936 presidential election as a victory of Roosevelt over Landon with an error of 6. 8 percent. l l His method was known as “quota" sampling Thereafter Gallup gained fame and his scientific method became prevalent in polling.

The Gallup Poll l Gallup made an error in predicting the 1948 presidential election l l The prediction that Thomas Dewey would defeat Harry Truman by anywhere from five to fifteen percentage points in 1948. When Truman actually won by more than four percentage points, Gallup and polling was under attack.

“New” Polling Methods l l l In the 1956 election, Gallup abandoned "quota" sampling, and switched to a new method using random samplings Random or probability sampling occurs when everyone in population being surveyed has an equal chance to be sampled Much more accurate

How is a Scientific Poll Created? l Define the “universe” (the population to be measured) l l National polls typically require 1000 -2000 respondents. Sampling error: The margin of error is expressed in +/- terms. l l Can reduce sampling error by adding more respondents In other words…Take random samples WHERE everyone has an equal chance of being included l Example: PE/Health classes v AP Government class

Four Uses of Scientific Polls l l Inform the public. Inform candidates. Inform office-holders. Make election night predictions.

Creating an Accurate Poll l You must have: l Carefully Worded Questions l l No bias and clearly differentiated alternatives A poll that actually seeks the truth l l l Not “Advocacy” and ‘Push Polls’ which try to influence the outcome Look for reliable pollsters- not party polls Remember… l Polls are just a snapshot and may be wrong!!! § Example- the election of 1948

Different Types of Scientific Polls l l Telephone l Random calls In-Person l Door-to-door, surveys in malls, shopping centers, movie theatres, and “man on the street” questionnaires Exit Polls l Taken after elections when voters “exit” the polling place Tracking Polls l Shows results of an issue over time

Problems of Polling l Telephone l l In-Person l l Does not include cell phones Who stops in the Mall or opens doors these days? ? ? Exit Polls l Who stops to talk to pollsters after elections? § l 2004 election Tracking l Taken out of context they make no more sense than a single frame from a movie.

Abuses of Polls by Media l A “Horserace journalism” mentality emphasizes campaign standing at expense of issues. l l No real story…just reporting about a poll In a horse race world, horse race polls can tell you who’s ahead but not why. l Example: “The strategies range from Rep. Richard A. Gephardt’s one-state last stand in Iowa to Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman’s rapid-fire attacks on Dean to retired Army Gen. Wesley K. Clark’s national campaign on electability. All of them depend on Dean stumbling during the Jan. 19 Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary the following week. ” http: //www. slate. com/articles/news_and_politics/2011/10/horse_race_politics_an_ani mation_of_the_2012_republican_campaign. html? wpisrc=sl_iphone

Push Poll Questions l l Questions that are deliberately phrased to give information to public Usually negative l l Would you be more or less likely to support Doug Goehring if you knew he was against ethanol and didn't support farmers? Would you be more or less likely to support Doug Goehring if you knew he was head of Nodak Mutual when it was under state investigation and that the state had to take it over because of his leadership?

The Most Famous Push Poll Question l Voters in South Carolina reportedly were asked before the 2000 Republican primary: l "Would you be more likely or less likely to vote for John Mc. Cain for president if you knew he had fathered an illegitimate black child? ” l l Mc. Cain and his wife had in fact adopted a Bangladeshi girl. The allegation had no substance, but planted the idea of undisclosed allegations in the minds of thousands of primary voters.

The Latest Push Poll Tactic- The Robo-Call l The Obama campaign has released a recording (mp 3) it says came from a Nevadan's answering machine of an anonymous robocall that criticizes Obama for taking money from special interests while repeating, four times, his rarely used middle name: "Hussein. " "I'm calling with some important information about Barack Hussein Obama………. . Barack Hussein Obama says he doesn't take money from Washington lobbyists or special interest groups but the record is clear that he does…You just can't take a chance on Barack Hussein Obama. “ http: //www. politico. com/blogs/bensmith/0108/Robocall_trashes_Barack_ Hussein_Obama. html

Public Opinion l Read Chapter 10!