PROMITHEAS2 International Black Sea Energy Policy Conference Energy

PROMITHEAS-2 International Black Sea Energy Policy Conference "Energy Investments and Trade Opportunities" 8, 9 October 2008, Athens (Greece) “Analysis of the Greek electric sector and investigation of various energy scenarios in the post Kyoto period” Mr I. Rampidis, Dr. D. Giannakopoulos, Prof. G. Bergeles National Technical University of Athens School of Mechanical Engineers Laboratory of Innovative Environmental Technologies PENED 2003 Code. Project: 296

Plan of presentation Objective of the work Working procedure Results Conclusions 2

Objective of work §The numerous available options for the development of the existing Greek electric sector in combination with the various technoeconomic and political parameters make energy planning a very complex task §Full auctioning of CO 2 allowances shall be the rule from 2013 onwards for the power sector, even more uncertainties emerge. §The objective of this work is to §study the main characteristics and behaviour of the Greek connected electric sector §evaluate basic energy scenarios for the Greek electric sector concerning their environmental and economic performance, feasibility and energy safety towards 2020. 3

Working Procedure Steps followed in the working procedure §Determination of commitments, constraints and targets of Greek Energy Policy §International §E. U. §National §Simulation of Greek Connected Electric Sector §Basic Model setup - ΕΝΡΕΡ-BALANCE §Model validation §Investigation of Energy Scenarios §Scenarios design §Implementation in model §Results §Acceptable solutions §Conclusions 4

Simulation of Greek Connected Electric Sector Basic Model setup Greek Connected Electric System Power Plant SES AG. DIMITRIOS Net Capacity (MW) 1, 456. 0 AMINTEO 546. 0 MELITI 292. 1 KARDIA PTOLEMAIS LKDM 1, 150. 0 PF (lignite) 570. 0 38. 0 MEGALOPOLI 756. 0 ALIVERI ΙΙΙ, IV 288. 0 LAVRIO Ι, II 430. 0 LAVRIO ΙΙΙ, IV, V Unit Type GT (Oil) 1, 101. 3 KOMOTINI 476. 3 EN. THES. 389. 4 AG. GEORGIOS 339. 0 IRON THERMOILEKTRIKI 147. 8 CCGT GT (NGas) *Source Hellenic Transmission System Operator 5

Simulation of Greek Connected Electric Sector Basic Model setup Greek Connected Electric System Power Plant AGRAS Net Capacity (MW) 50. 0 ASOMATA 108. 0 AOOS 210. 0 GIONA EDESEOS 8. 5 19. 0 THESAVROS 384. 0 KASTRAKI 320. 0 KREMASTA 437. 2 LADONAS 70. 0 LOUROS 10. 3 MAKROHORI 10. 2 PLASTIRAS 129. 9 PLATANOVRISI 116. 0 POLIFITO 375. 0 POURNARI 333. 6 STRATOS 156. 2 SFIKIA 315. 0 WIND FARMS 365. 8 SMALL HYDRO COGENERATION UNITS BIOMASS UNITS Unit Type 44. 0 231. 9 23. 2 Hydro RES & Cogeneration *Source Hellenic Transmission System Operator 6

Simulation of Greek Connected Electric Sector Basic Model setup ΕΝΡΕΡ-BALANCE Software §ENergy and Power Evaluation Program §Developed by Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) with support from the U. S. DOE, IAEA, World Bank §Uses nonlinear, market-based equilibrium approach to determine the energy supply and demand balance for the entire energy system. §Many decision makers in market operation. Non price factors can play role (government policy, physical, technical & other constraints, etc. ) §Graphical network representation of the energy system. §Energy flows can be traced easily §Full understanding of entire energy system *Source ANL §Easy to manipulate scenario analysis §Easy to modify existing case for future study §Time-dependent factors (resources, technology) can be captured accurately §Data intensive 7

Simulation of Greek Connected Electric Sector Basic Model setup §Greek Electric Sector (connected) was modeled and its behaviour simulated with the aid of ENPEP-BALANCE. Final Energy Consumption Sectors Transport & Distribution of Energy Electricity Production Sector Depletable primary energy sources 8

Simulation of Greek Connected Electric Sector Basic Model setup §Electric Sector modeling performed on a unit level, grouped by plant 9

Simulation of Greek Connected Electric Sector Basic Model setup §Modeling of primary energy sources is performed in detail (e. g. distinction between the quality and cost among the various fields for lignite) Lignite Mines Megalopolis Field Amynteo Field Main Field Kardia Field Notio Field Florina Field 10

Simulation of Greek Connected Electric Sector Basic Model setup Input Data (scenario independent) §Fuel prices and fuel prices projections *Source Eurostat, PPC 11

Simulation of Greek Connected Electric Sector Basic Model setup Input Data (scenario independent) § 2004 Load Duration Curve, electricity demand sharing among sectors – projections *Source Hellenic Transmission System Operator Electricity Demand Percentage of electricity consumption by sector* Rate of electricity consumption increase (2004/2003)* Households & Services 28. 13% 3. 8% Transportation 0. 47% 0. 4% Industry 71. 39% 0** Total 100% 1. 07% *Eurostat **Negative 12

Simulation of Greek Connected Electric Sector Basic Model setup Input Data (scenario independent) §Retirement of existing units 13

Simulation of Greek Connected Electric Sector Basic Model setup Input Data (scenario dependent) §Thermal units installation (Scenario A) §Installation of new RES 14

Simulation of Greek Connected Electric Sector Model Validation of model §Comparison of estimated and emitted CO 2 for base year 2004 §Comparison of estimated and produced electricity per plant type ENPEP HTSO 15

Simulation of Greek Connected Electric Sector Model Validation of model - Sensitivity 16

Simulation of Greek Connected Electric Sector Investigation of Energy Scenarios design §Parameters taken into consideration during scenario design §Scheduled commission of new thermal and hydro power plants §Scheduled commission of new PV and Wind parks §Percentage of imported electric power §Mixture of final electric production §Fuel prices §Base installed capacity / peak load ratio §CO 2 allowances cost §Estimation of “success indices” - parameters for each scenario as §emitted CO 2 (per plant, per year, totally) §quality of electricity production t. CO 2/GWhe §fuel diversification, energy safety §Enhancement of old scenarios in order to improve achieve specifications 17

Simulation of Greek Connected Electric Sector Investigation of Energy Scenarios design Cost of CO 2 ($/t) Installation of PV and Wind Parks (GW + GW) Hi Coal Price A 00 0 2+1 NO A 15 15 2+1 NO A 30 30 2+1 NO B 00 0 2+1 NO B 30 30 2+1 NO C 00 0 2+1 NO C 30 30 2+1 NO D 00 0 2+1 NO D 30 30 2+1 NO E 00 0 4+2 NO E 30 30 4+2 NO F 00 0 4+2 YES F 30 30 4+2 YES Scen ario New Thermal Power Plants Scenario which includes all possible new installations (scenario announced in press) Commissioning of new PF (coal) and CCGT (ngas) power plants, in order to keep CO 2 emissions constant when old units are retired Commissioning of new PF (coal) and CCGT (ngas) power plants, in order to satisfy increased demand due to old units retirement Commissioning of 800 MW PF (lignite) power plants and necessary typical PF (coal) and CCGT (ngas) power plants in order to satisfy demand keep high energy diversification and safety 18

Simulation of Greek Connected Electric Sector Investigation of Energy Scenarios Results §Average cumulative annual change of CO 2 emissions for all scenarios (over 2006) 19

Simulation of Greek Connected Electric Sector Investigation of Energy Scenarios Results §Final electricity production in 2020 – Where each scenario fails! Extremely high percentages of NGas High imports, low RES, high Ngas Low RES Best of investigated scenarios Extra test for E scenario 20

Simulation of Greek Connected Electric Sector Investigation of Energy Scenarios Results §Scenarios of group A are not realistic (physical/technical constraints) 21

Simulation of Greek Connected Electric Sector Investigation of Energy Scenarios Results §Best of investigated scenarios (Ε 00 και Ε 30) Solid Fuel capacity / peak load 22

Simulation of Greek Connected Electric Sector Investigation of Energy Scenarios Results §Best of investigated scenarios (Ε 00 και Ε 30) – Mixture of final electricity production 23

Simulation of Greek Connected Electric Sector Investigation of Energy Scenarios Results §Best of investigated scenarios (Ε 00 και Ε 30) “Quality” of electricity production – tones of CO 2 emitted for each MWh produced 24

Simulation of Greek Connected Electric Sector Investigation of Energy Scenarios Results §Best of investigated scenarios (Ε 00 και Ε 30) – CO 2 emissions compared to 2006 25

Simulation of Greek Connected Electric Sector Conclusions §In the investigated scenarios NGas share in the 2020 final energy mix ranged between 25%-30%, losing share when both coal and CO 2 prices are low §Respectively, share of coal varied in the range of 12%-27% influenced mainly by its price and secondarily by CO 2 price. §Lignite share varied in the range of 17%-30% decreasing with allowances price increase and coal price decrease. §CO 2 reduction by 2020 (compared to 2005) reached 3. 2% in the most optimistic scenario. §From the study it can be concluded that the comprehensive simulation of the Greek electric sector can provide detailed information about its behaviour and makes efficient energy planning possible. §The uncertainties in the fuel prices and the level of priority given to the protection of the environment make energy planning a difficult task to satisfy all members of the society. 26

Simulation of Greek Connected Electric Sector Thank You! 27