Project X Cost Estimate Marc Kaducak Project X

Project X Cost Estimate Marc Kaducak Project X Cost Reduction Workshop September 11 -12, 2013

Outline • • Goals of Workshop Cost Estimate Status, Approach, Assumptions, Boundaries Overview of Scope and Costs for Major Subsystems Overall Cost Summaries for One-Shot and Staged Scenarios 2013 Cost Reduction Workshop, Marc Kaducak 2

This Workshop • The goal of the workshop is to discuss lessons learned from other projects and identify opportunities to reduce the cost of Project X. These could take the form of: – Validation or modification of current R&D plan for Project X. Suggestions for prioritizing R&D. – Different approaches for acquisitions (contract strategies, make vs. buy) – Pitfalls, oversights, or things we have underappreciated – Modification of requirements that could lead to substantial cost reduction (sensitivity analysis) • Not a cost review, but comments/recommendations are welcome if something seems out of line. 2013 Cost Reduction Workshop, Marc Kaducak 3

Cost Estimate Status and Approach • • • Project X has considered and estimated several configurations. The latest is described in the Reference Design Report (RDR). RDR configuration enables: – Broad range of physics opportunities – Concurrent experiments at different energies (1 Ge. V, 3 Ge. V, 8 Ge. V, 60 -120 Ge. V) using flexible beam formats – Staging with each stage <$1 B – Straightforward upgrade path to Neutrino Factory, Muon Collider In general an approach for straightforward upgrades through the stages is taken w. r. t. cryo, RF power, utilities, infrastructure. This leads to higher costs up front, but substantial savings in total. Majority of design and R&D effort to date has been focused on the accelerator. Targets and experiments are still at an early stage of development and their costs are not included here. No formal Value Engineering studies yet, though always thinking about opportunities. Project X is pre-CD 0. Detailed estimates have been developed, especially for the cost drivers, but we do not have a Resource Loaded Schedule for the RDR design and are not ready for drill down exercises etc. We can get there if it becomes a priority. 2013 Cost Reduction Workshop, Marc Kaducak 4

Assumptions for Base Estimates • • • Fermilab labor rates used for non-contract work. Usual Fermilab overheads apply – no special large project discounts. No credit taken for international contributions, which could be significant. No assumptions that portions of the scope will be funded off project, e. g. Fermilab AIPs, GPPs. No prototype components, e. g. from PXIE or SRF R&D are re-used in the permanent installation. 2013 Cost Reduction Workshop, Marc Kaducak 5

Estimate Boundaries For the purposes of this workshop: • Costs are from CD-3 forward and expressed in $FY 13. • Targets and Experimental Facilities are not included. • Upgrades to Booster not included. Estimate does not include cost to modify the “Run Like a Proton” exhibit. 2013 Cost Reduction Workshop, Marc Kaducak 6

One Shot 2010 “Reference Design” g I M o t ine l r e f s Tran long m ~800 ~40 on l m ng o l m ~500 0 Page 7 Siting Workshop 04 -Oct-2012 Marc Kaducak

2013 Staged Reference Design PX Cost Reduction Workhop - S. Holmes Page 8

Conventional Facilities Scope, Acquisition Plan and Bo. E • • • Above-grade buildings, roads, parking lots Below-grade beam enclosures and utilities Site Work – Grading and Drainage – Road Construction – Landscaping – Wetland Mitigation Utilities – Electrical – Communications – CHW, LCW, ICW, DWS – Sanitary – Natural Gas Basis of Estimate – RS Means – Recent construction Acquisition Plan – 5 -10 contracts for wetland mitigation, site – prep, utilities, infrastructure upgrades, enclosures, outfitting Oversight by Fermilab FESS 2013 Cost Reduction Workshop, Marc Kaducak 9

Conventional Facilities Stage 1 Cost Estimate (w/o EDIA, Indirects) 2013 Cost Reduction Workshop, Marc Kaducak 10

Conventional Facilities Stage 2 Cost Estimate (w/o EDIA, Indirects) 2013 Cost Reduction Workshop, Marc Kaducak 11

Conventional Facilities Stage 3 Cost Estimate (w/o EDIA, Indirects) 2013 Cost Reduction Workshop, Marc Kaducak 12

Cryogenics System Scope, Acquisition Plan and Bo. E • • • Cryo Plant(s) - 41 k. W @ 4. 5 K equivalent ( 37 k. W for CW Linac + 4 k. W for Pulsed Linac) – Compressors (Warm, Cold, Warm Vacuum) – Cold Boxes – Controls – Installation contracts Distribution System – Distribution boxes – Cryogenic transfer lines (Low and High Pressure) – Bayonet cans and expansion boxes – Transfer lines with interconnecting boxes – String connecting boxes – Piping systems Ancillary Systems – Cooling towers – Gas and Liquid storage – Helium Purifier – Recovery compressors – Miscellaneous (arc cells, hydrometers, instrument air, etc. ) Basis of Estimate – LHC, JLab – Recent installations at NML Acquisition Plan – Multiple contracts – Design and Integration with Laboratory Oversight 2013 Cost Reduction Workshop, Marc Kaducak 13

Cryogenics System Cost Estimate (direct) • Stage 1 Only • One Shot 2013 Cost Reduction Workshop, Marc Kaducak 14

SRF Cryomodules Scope • CW Linac • Pulsed Linac – Qty. 28 Cryomodules w/8 1. 3 GHz Cavities and one quadrupole each (224 cavities total). 2013 Cost Reduction Workshop, Marc Kaducak 15

SRF Cryomodules Bo. E, Acquisition Plan • Basis of Estimate – HINS – ILC • Acquisition Plan – Vendor produced hardware (cavities, He Vessels, tuners, couplers, magnetic and thermal shields, piping) – Processing, assembly, testing at FNAL • Cost Summary (Direct Costs) 2013 Cost Reduction Workshop, Marc Kaducak 16

RF Power System Scope, Bo. E, Acquisition Plan • • RF Power Sources – 2 m. A to 1 Ge. V, 1 ma to 8 Ge. V Circulators, interlocks Transmission parts (coax or waveguide) Racks Installation Basis of Estimates – recent procurements, bids Acquisition plan – procurements for hardware, installation with oversight by FNAL Item RFQ Bunchers HWR SSR 1 SSR 2 LB 650 HB 650 ILC 1. 3 Separators Total Qty 2 3 8 16 35 30 42 120 28 2 286 Power Source Description 75 k. W solid state 162. 5 MHz 4 k. W solid state 162. 5 MHz 7 k. W solid state 325 MHz 10 k. W solid state 325 MHz 60 k. W IOT 650 MHz 30 k. W IOT 650 MHz 500 k. W Klystron 1. 3 GHz 4 -10 k. W various frequencies 2013 Cost Reduction Workshop, Marc Kaducak 17

RF Power Cost Estimate (direct) 2013 Cost Reduction Workshop, Marc Kaducak 18

MI/RR Upgrades & Modifications for Project X • • H- Injection system for Recycler – foils, laser stripping. New 53 MHz RF system for MI and Recycler – We cannot accelerate the higher beam power with the current MI RF System. – Required even for Stage 1. • New second harmonic RF system for MI and Recycler – Required for improved bunching factor • Gamma-t jump system for MI. – Avoid longitudinal emittance blow-up and beam loss after transition. • • E-cloud mitigation schemes – beam pipe coating. Loss control in Recycler. – Required for NOv. A operations and Stage 1. *Slide from I. Kourbanis 2013 Cost Reduction Workshop, Marc Kaducak 19

Misc. Other Scope • • Project Management Accelerator Physics Instrumentation LLRF Controls Beam Transport Safety Systems, Infrastructure, Testing, LCW 2013 Cost Reduction Workshop, Marc Kaducak 20

Cost Estimate Summary – One Shot Construction Cost Drivers: • Cryomodules • RF Power • Cryogenic System • Civil Construction *Percentages are based on direct costs 2013 Cost Reduction Workshop, Marc Kaducak All costs in $FY 13 21

Cost Estimate Summary – Staged Approach 2013 Cost Reduction Workshop, Marc Kaducak All costs in $FY 13 22

Summary • • Estimates are a work in progress, but do have a detailed basis (lots of backup spreadsheets). Accelerator scope has been relatively stable. There are premiums paid for staging. R&D will help refine and validate cost and schedule estimates, and hopefully lead to reduced costs. 2013 Cost Reduction Workshop, Marc Kaducak 23

Backup 2013 Cost Reduction Workshop, Marc Kaducak 24

Conventional Facilities Cost Estimate 2013 Cost Reduction Workshop, Marc Kaducak 25

Technology Readiness and Cost Sensitivity – Status Today SRF R&D PXIE Linac Component LEBT RFQ MEBT β=0. 11 HWR RT β=0. 22 SSR 1 162. 5 MHz 0. 03 -11 Me. V Technology Readiness 6 Cost (% of total) 5 3 325 MHz 10 -177 Me. V 4 4 1% Focus of R&D, All apply to Stage 1 Subsystem CW RF Technical Readiness 8 Cost (% of total) 8% Not shown: Mgmt, Acc. Phys. , Inst. Ctrls, Safety Pulsed RF 8 4% β=0. 51 SSR 2 CW β=0. 61 LB 650 β=0. 9 HB 650 MHz 0. 18 -3 Ge. V 3 3 β=1. 0 1300 Pulsed 1. 3 GHz 3 -8 Ge. V 3 7 5% 16% 10% (Cryomodules only) (CMs only) CW Cryo 7 11% Pulsed Cryo Beam Transport 8 3% 7 3% 2013 Cost Reduction Workshop, Marc Kaducak CW Civil 8 14% Pulsed Civil MI/RR Upgrade 8 9% 7 6% 26

SRF R&D Contribution to PX Cost Risk Reduction • End-to-end cryomodule fabrication and testing 1. Verify assumptions about cavity yields 2. Develop cavity fabrication vendors enabling competitive bidding 3. Define and exercise production and testing processes and equipment, thereby verifying capacity and rate 4. Verify the Q 0 and heat loads of CW cavities, which dominate the Project X cryogenic heat load and therefore the cryoplant cost 5. Exercise the collaboration with India to enable substantial in-kind contributions • Potential opportunities to exploit: 1. Annealing half cells prior to welding – no 800°C bake after EP 2. Cavity N 2 treatment – potential factor of 2 increase in Q 3. Barrel polishing – potential elimination of chemical processing 2013 Cost Reduction Workshop, Marc Kaducak 27

Other R&D and Studies • Development of target system capable of accommodating beam power in the range of 1 - 2. 5 MW. Study remote handling systems and target lifetimes. International effort with LBNE and others (Ra. DIATE – Radiation Damage In Accelerator Target Environments). • Development of an H- injection system capable of accepting extended beam pulses from the Project X linacs, for injection into the Booster or Recycler (see I. Kourbanis and D. Johnson talks) 1) H- Injection system in Recycler. R&D going on especially with rotating foils and new foil materials. Follow the progress with laser stripping in SNS 2) New 53 MHz RF system in both MI and RR. Have finalized a cavity design have built a mock up cavity working towards a prototype. 3) Second harmonic RF for both MI and RR. Have a preliminary cavity design based on the new 53 MHz cavity. 4) Gamma-t jump system for transition crossing in MI. Have a design and have identify places for the quad installation in MI. 5) e-cloud mitigation. Continuing the e-cloud studies/measurements in MI. Based on our coating experience we are going to estimate the amount of effort needed to in situ coat the MI pipe with Ti. N. 2013 Cost Reduction Workshop, Marc Kaducak 28

Parametric Estimating Numbers Caution: Care is required when using parametric estimates in this regime. • Linac Tunnel - $18 k/m • HB 650 CM - $5. 3 M each • 1. 3 GHz CM - $3 M each • 650 MHz IOT RF system - $374 k each (M&S only) • Xfer line $12 M/km • Cryo – fixed costs too high for this 2013 Cost Reduction Workshop, Marc Kaducak 29