Progress in Forecasting and Product Generation FriendsPartners in

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Progress in Forecasting and Product Generation Friends/Partners in Aviation Weather Las Vegas, Nevada October

Progress in Forecasting and Product Generation Friends/Partners in Aviation Weather Las Vegas, Nevada October 13, 2004 Joanne Lancaster – Meteorological Service of Canada 1 Environment Canada Meteorological Service of Canada Environnement Canada Service Météorologique du Canada

Presentation Outline • The Meteorological Service of Canada • Services to NAV CANADA •

Presentation Outline • The Meteorological Service of Canada • Services to NAV CANADA • Other aviation initiatives • What are we doing in Canada? • Forecast Production • Other Initiatives • Future Work 2 Environment Canada Meteorological Service of Canada Environnement Canada Service Météorologique du Canada

The Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC) • The MSC is part of the Government

The Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC) • The MSC is part of the Government of Canada (Department of Environment) • MSC Funding: • From parliament (A-base component) • Cost Recovered Services • Services to NAV CANADA are fully cost recovered • The MSC produces most of the aviation weather forecasts (annual value $9. 3 million) through a full cost recovery product and service contract with NAV CANADA (annual value $20. 2 million). 3 Environment Canada Meteorological Service of Canada Environnement Canada Service Météorologique du Canada

Forecast Production Services to NAV CANADA 2 Canadian Meteorological Aviation Centres - CMACs CMAC-East

Forecast Production Services to NAV CANADA 2 Canadian Meteorological Aviation Centres - CMACs CMAC-East • CCFP • North Atlantic Turbulence • TAFS • GFA Canadian Meteorological Centre • Supercomputer CMAC-West • Canadian Turbulence Forecast • TAFS • GFA Environment Canada Meteorological Service of Canada • VAAC • ASEP • AWWS • R&D 4 Environnement Canada Service Météorologique du Canada

Other Services to NAV CANADA Aviation Weather Observation Services • maintenance, inspection, collection, processing,

Other Services to NAV CANADA Aviation Weather Observation Services • maintenance, inspection, collection, processing, distribution, performance monitoring Performance Measurement (TAFs) Radar, Satellite, Lightning Telecommunications Aviation Weather Web Site (AWWS) 5 Environment Canada Meteorological Service of Canada Environnement Canada Service Météorologique du Canada

Other Aviation Related Initiatives Not all aviation related initiatives are cost recovered, i. e.

Other Aviation Related Initiatives Not all aviation related initiatives are cost recovered, i. e. the MSC is supporting some aviation related initiatives via A-base funding, where it is consistent with the MSC mandate to do so. • AMDAR - data link weather information from aircraft in flight • Aircraft Icing Research Study (AIRS II) • Aerodrome forecast performance metrics to support more fuel efficient flight operations, thereby reducing green house gas emissions 6 Environment Canada Meteorological Service of Canada Environnement Canada Service Météorologique du Canada

Forecast Production Automated Supplementary En-route weather Prediction (ASEP) • Automated (model output) graphic forecasts

Forecast Production Automated Supplementary En-route weather Prediction (ASEP) • Automated (model output) graphic forecasts of turbulence, winds and temperatures en-route, cloud, icing, isobaric pattern • Developed and maintained by the MSC Canadian Meteorological Centre for NAV CANADA • Currently staged for training of NAV CANADA FSS • Accessible via the Aviation Weather Web Site (AWWS) and to NAV CANADA Flight Information Centres (FICs) via dedicated relay 7 Environment Canada Meteorological Service of Canada Environnement Canada Service Météorologique du Canada

Forecast Production Collaborative Convective Forecast Product (CCFP) Canadian portion – produced by the CMAC-East

Forecast Production Collaborative Convective Forecast Product (CCFP) Canadian portion – produced by the CMAC-East in Montreal Supporting efficient crossborder routing of aircraft. Approximately 80 aircraft on CAN-1 on this day 8 Environment Canada Meteorological Service of Canada Environnement Canada Service Météorologique du Canada

Forecast Production Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS) • Red= Addl. NEXRADs to be added

Forecast Production Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS) • Red= Addl. NEXRADs to be added to CIWS network in 2004 • Green= “CAN” playbook routes 1, 5 and 7 • Yellow=Canadian radars Data from 5 MSC RADAR covers the Canadian (off-load) Routes 9 Environment Canada Meteorological Service of Canada Environnement Canada Service Météorologique du Canada

Forecast Production Aerodrome Forecast Quality/Reliability Improvement • TAF Quality/Reliability • Current measured metrics say

Forecast Production Aerodrome Forecast Quality/Reliability Improvement • TAF Quality/Reliability • Current measured metrics say we’re not getting better; measures are not easy to understand or interpret; no one really uses them • Measure what matters to the end-users; what affects the airlines decision making process • Feedback to operations; so forecasters understand how their forecast impact decision making process • Current MSC, NC initiative with funding from Program for Energy Reduction and Development • Engaging the end-users in the process; providing in-kind support • Focusing on the issue at an upcoming aviation workshop • Funding R&D (statistical methods, fuzzy logic) with goal to improve quality 10 Environment Canada Meteorological Service of Canada Environnement Canada Service Météorologique du Canada

Other Initiatives Development of an Aviation Lab within the MSC • Support the responsibilities

Other Initiatives Development of an Aviation Lab within the MSC • Support the responsibilities of several government departments, particularly Transport and National Defense who have mandated responsibilities for aviation meteorology • Demonstrate a commitment to the future of the MSC aviation forecasting offices and personnel, and ensure that the MSC remains a world-class aviation weather service provider • Collaborate with other national and international R&D efforts in aviation meteorology and with other severe weather R&D programs • Provide an appropriate venue for the testing and development of aviation forecasting tools and to facilitate technology transfer/linkage back to operations 11 Environment Canada Meteorological Service of Canada Environnement Canada Service Météorologique du Canada

Future Work? Focus on coordinated efforts where it makes sense to do so Continue

Future Work? Focus on coordinated efforts where it makes sense to do so Continue to focus on x-border commonality and integration of products Broaden our understanding of how Canadian forecasts impact end-users Work with end users to provide them with the right information to support their decision making processes 12 Environment Canada Meteorological Service of Canada Environnement Canada Service Météorologique du Canada

Merci Beaucoup * Thank You! Contact Information: Joanne Lancaster Chief, Client Services (613) 995

Merci Beaucoup * Thank You! Contact Information: Joanne Lancaster Chief, Client Services (613) 995 -4976 Joanne. lancaster@ec. gc. ca Environment Canada Meteorological Service of Canada Environnement Canada Service Météorologique du Canada 13

MSC’s Canadian Meteorological Aviation Centre - West (Edmonton) Environment Canada Meteorological Service of Canada

MSC’s Canadian Meteorological Aviation Centre - West (Edmonton) Environment Canada Meteorological Service of Canada Environnement Canada Service Météorologique du Canada 14

Forecasting Replenishment Forecasting Replenishment Forecasting Forecasting Replenishment ForecastingForecasting Replenishment Forecasting Replenishment Forecasting Forecasting Replenishment Forecasting
forecasting longterm forecasting middleterm forecasting shortterm forecasting 2forecasting longterm forecasting middleterm forecasting shortterm forecasting 2
Forecasting Forecasting Problems and Methods New product forecastingForecasting Forecasting Problems and Methods New product forecasting
FriendsPartners Aviation Wx Segment 2 Progress In WeatherFriendsPartners Aviation Wx Segment 2 Progress In Weather
FriendsPartners Aviation Wx Panel 2 Progress In WeatherFriendsPartners Aviation Wx Panel 2 Progress In Weather
Spontaneous Generation Spontaneous Generation Spontaneous Generation Spontaneous GenerationSpontaneous Generation Spontaneous Generation Spontaneous Generation Spontaneous Generation
Introduction Definition Forecasting Technology Technological Forecasting Process ForecastingIntroduction Definition Forecasting Technology Technological Forecasting Process Forecasting
Forecasting Forecasting A Basis of Forecasting In businessForecasting Forecasting A Basis of Forecasting In business
Forecasting Forecasting A Basis of Forecasting In businessForecasting Forecasting A Basis of Forecasting In business
DEMAND FORECASTING DEMAND FORECASTING Demand forecasting means estimationDEMAND FORECASTING DEMAND FORECASTING Demand forecasting means estimation
Forecasting Models FORECASTING Forecasting is attempting to predictForecasting Models FORECASTING Forecasting is attempting to predict
Where do we stand Progress Progress Progress ProgressWhere do we stand Progress Progress Progress Progress
Update re Ongoing Presentation to FriendsPartners in AviationUpdate re Ongoing Presentation to FriendsPartners in Aviation