PRODUCTION AND OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT Ch 5 Forecasting SUMMARY

  • Slides: 8
Download presentation
PRODUCTION AND OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT Ch. 5: Forecasting SUMMARY POM - J. Galván 1

PRODUCTION AND OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT Ch. 5: Forecasting SUMMARY POM - J. Galván 1

BASIC POINTS n CAN WE FORESEE THE FUTURE? • • • Definition of forecasting

BASIC POINTS n CAN WE FORESEE THE FUTURE? • • • Definition of forecasting Forecast design Qualitative forecasts Jury of executive opinion – Identify consensus n Sales force composite – Identify consensus n Delphi method – Identify consensus n Consumer Market Survey – Ask and observe n • Quantitative forecasts n n Time series models – Knowing history = estimate future Causal models – A change in one variable = Observed effect POM - J. Galván 2

n n QUESTIONS Forecasts help managers by reducing the degree of: • Accuracy •

n n QUESTIONS Forecasts help managers by reducing the degree of: • Accuracy • Precision • Uncertainty • Reliability Which one of the following forecasting techniques is used to identify a trend when data is neither growing nor declining rapidly and has no seasonal characteristics. • Simple moving average • Delphi method • Trend adjusted forecast • Naïve forecast POM - J. Galván 3

QUESTIONS (II) n n A gradual, long term upward or downward movement in data

QUESTIONS (II) n n A gradual, long term upward or downward movement in data is referred to as: • Cycle • Trend • Seasonality • Random variation Which one of the following management functions is based on forecasting? • Planning • Organizing • Leading • Controlling POM - J. Galván 4

QUESTIONS (III) n n You decide to forecast the number of students in Schiller’s

QUESTIONS (III) n n You decide to forecast the number of students in Schiller’s Madrid campus for the next year. Describe the steps to follow and how to implement them We intuitively feel that the specific colour of a car model is very important for the customers. How can you verify this intuition following forecasting techniques? POM - J. Galván 5

EFFECTS OF POOR FORECASTING POM - J. Galván 6

EFFECTS OF POOR FORECASTING POM - J. Galván 6

YOU MUST FORECAST THE FUTURE! POM - J. Galván 7

YOU MUST FORECAST THE FUTURE! POM - J. Galván 7

FORECAST NEW INTERESTING USES OF COMPUTERS POM - J. Galván 8

FORECAST NEW INTERESTING USES OF COMPUTERS POM - J. Galván 8

Forecasting Replenishment Forecasting Replenishment Forecasting Forecasting Replenishment ForecastingForecasting Replenishment Forecasting Replenishment Forecasting Forecasting Replenishment Forecasting
forecasting longterm forecasting middleterm forecasting shortterm forecasting 2forecasting longterm forecasting middleterm forecasting shortterm forecasting 2
Forecasting Forecasting and Operations Sales Production Inventory FacilitiesForecasting Forecasting and Operations Sales Production Inventory Facilities
Forecasting Forecasting and Operations Sales Production Inventory FacilitiesForecasting Forecasting and Operations Sales Production Inventory Facilities
Forecasting Forecasting Problems and Methods New product forecastingForecasting Forecasting Problems and Methods New product forecasting
Introduction Definition Forecasting Technology Technological Forecasting Process ForecastingIntroduction Definition Forecasting Technology Technological Forecasting Process Forecasting
Forecasting Forecasting A Basis of Forecasting In businessForecasting Forecasting A Basis of Forecasting In business