Process Research Modelling and Prediction Writing a formal

Process Research, Modelling and Prediction Writing a formal plan is relatively simple, designing a working GFCS is a great challenge How? HLT Report Draft IP Current state GFCS in operation We will attempt to design this part of the IP and distill necessary activities GFCS-TT-1, Geneva, 13 -15 Oct 2011, V. Ryabinin

Team Huge domain, need a lot of expertise Core team of Dr. Fiona Horsfall, NOAA's National Weather Service, Climate Services Division Prof. Frederick Semazzi, Dept of Marine Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, North Carolina State U Dr. Richard Washington, School of Geography and the Environment, Keble College, Oxford Dr. Tara Weaver-Missick, Inf. Products & Services, Agricultural Res. Service, US Dep. of Agriculture Dr. Carolina Vera, Centro de Investigación del Mar y la Atmósfera, Universidad de Buenos Aires Prof. Pius Yanda, Institute of Resource Assessment, University of Dar es Salaam Dr. Guoxiong Wu, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences Dr. Vladimir Ryabinin, WCRP Expertise, input of • WCRP – wide range of people and constituencies, especially JSC and WG on science support to climate services WCRP Open Sci. Conference (Climate Science in Service to Society) • RES(WWRP/GAW): Frédéric Vitart, ECMWF, and Dr. Øystein Hov, Met. No, EC RTT • OBS (GCOS), WCP -> World Climate Services Programme • leaders in four near-term priority areas of GFCS – user expertise • funding agency perspectives GFCS-TT-1, Geneva, 13 -15 Oct 2011, V. Ryabinin

Draft Outline “Drivers –> Challenges –> Opportunities” • Preamble – purpose, communities to be guided by the IP • Scientific requirements in 4 near-term priority areas • Consolidation of requirements in terms of climate products • Activities in near-term, deliverables (basic <–> applications) – NWP – Seasons – Several decades – Centuries – Observations, (re-)analysis (joint with OBS – GCOS) – Applications – Fast-tracks – data/predictions availability (glob/reg) – (Forecast) Demonstration Projects • Directions of research in mid- and longer-term – Yearly – decades – Additional sectors – More on near-term • Coordination • Resources, including computing resources • Conclusions GFCS-TT-1, Geneva, 13 -15 Oct 2011, V. Ryabinin

Foundations • Coordinated Observations and Predictionmof the Earth System (WCRP Framework 2005 – 2015) • WCRP Implementation Plan 2010 -2015 • WCRP Open Science Conference Position Papers • Deliberations of WCRP WG on Science Support to Climate Services GFCS-TT-1, Geneva, 13 -15 Oct 2011, V. Ryabinin