PROBLEM SOLVING REASONING JUDGEMENT AND DECISION MAKING PSYCHOLOGY

PROBLEM SOLVING, REASONING, JUDGEMENT AND DECISION MAKING PSYCHOLOGY LECTURE IX WINTER SEMESTER 2019/2020 JOLANTA BABIAK

PROBLEM SOLVING AND REASONING • PROBLEM: YOU REALIZED THAT YOU SWAP YOUR WALLET WITH A PERSON, WHO WAS STANDING BEHIND YOU IN A CUE WHILE PAYING YOUR GROCERY SHOPPING BILL IN A HURRY. YOU REALIZED THAT AFTER UNPACKING THE GOODS AT HOME. WHAT ARE THE MENTAL STEPS YOU WILL TAKE TO OVERCOME THIS PROBLEM? • THESE MENTAL STEPS ARE THE COGNITIVE PROCESSES THAT MAKE UP PROBLEM SOLVING AND REASONING • THESE ACTIVITIES ENABLE COMBINING CURRENT INFORMATION WITH INFOR- MATION STORED IN MEMORY IN ORDER TO ARRIVE AT THE CONCLUSION OR A SOLUTION.

SOLVING PROBLEMS AND REASONING • HOW TO MANAGE STUDYING AND PART TIME WORK? • HOW TO BREAK OFF A RELATIONSHIP? • HOW TO APPROACH MASTER THESES PREPARATION AND WRITING? • PROBLEM SOLVING – COGNITIVE PROCESSING DIRECTED AT SOLVING SPECIFIC PROBLEMS THAT MOVES FROM AN INITIAL STATE TO A GOAL STATE • REASONING - MENTAL PROCESSING IN WHICH CONCLUSIONS ARE DRAWN FROM A SET OF FACTS; THINKING DIRECTED TOWARD A GIVEN GOAL OR OBJECTIVE.

SOLVING PROBLEMS What do I know Reducing the discrepancy What do I need to know

PROBLEM SPACE an initial state e. g. unsatisfactory conditions a set of operations a goal state

TYPES OF PROBLEMS • WELL-DEFINED PROBLEM – USE OF ALGORITHMS - A STEP-BY-STEP PROCEDURE THAT ALWAYS PROVIDES THE RIGHT ANSWER FOR A PARTICULAR TYPE OF PROBLEM – IS A GOOD WAY TO SOLVE THIS TYPE OF PROBLEMS. WHEN ALGORITHMS CAN’T BE USED, PROBLEM SOLVERS OFTEN RELY ON HEURISTICS, WHICH ARE STRATEGIES OR “RULES OF THUMB”, OR MENTAL SHORTCUTS. • ILL-DEFINED PROBLEM: THE INITIAL STATE, THE GOAL STATE, AND/OR THE OPERATIONS AND PROCESSES MAY BE UNCLEAR AND VAGUELY SPECIFIED. THE PROBLEM SOLVER’S FIRST TASK IS TO DEFINE AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE, WHAT THE PROBLEM IS—TO MARK AN INITIAL STATE, THINK OF THE MOST DESIRABLE SOLUTION, AND THE POSSIBLE ROUTE AND MEANS TO ACHIEVE IT.

IMPROVING PROBLEM SOLVING • MENTAL REQUIREMENTS FOR SOLVING A PARTICULAR PROBLEM MIGHT OVERWHELM PROCESSING RESOURCES – THAT IS WE HAVE TO CONSIDER TOO MANY THINGS AT ONCE • IF THE SERIES OF OPERATIONS TO BE TAKEN IS TOO COMPLEX A PERSON MIGHT NOT BE ABLE TO COMPREHEND THE PATH FROM INITIAL STATE TO THE GOAL STATE • WHAT IS REQUIRED IS A MENTAL REPRESENTATION A PROBLEM SO THAT EACH OPERATION IS POSSIBLE • SOMETIMES, FINDING A USEFUL REPRESENTATION MEANS FINDING A WHOLE NEW WAY TO THINK ABOUT THE PROBLEM

OBSTACLES TO PROBLEM SOLVING • FUNCTIONAL FIXEDNESS IS A MENTAL BLOCK THAT NEGATIVELY AFFECTS PROBLEM SOLVING BY BLOCKING THE PERCEPTION OF A NEW FUNCTION FOR AN OBJECT THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY ASSOCIATED WITH SOME OTHER PURPOSE • CREATIVITY • DIVERGENT THINKING, WHICH IS DEFINED AS THE ABILITY TO GENERATE A VARIETY OF UNUSUAL SOLUTIONS TO A PROBLEM – DEMONSTRATION OF FLUID (SWIFT) AND FLEXIBLE THINKING • CONVERGENT THINKING IS DEFINED AS THE ABILITY TO GATHER TOGETHER DIFFERENT SOURCES OF INFORMATION TO SOLVE A PROBLEM – PUTTING INFORMATION TOGETHER IN A WAY THAT PRODUCES NOVEL SOLUTIONS; INSIGHT - CIRCUMSTANCES IN WHICH SOLUTIONS SUDDENLY COME TO MIND.

DEDUCTIVE REASONING – SPECIAL FORM OF THINKING • DEDUCTIVE REASONING – A FORM OF THINKING IN WHICH ONE DRAWS A CONCLUSION THAT IS INTENDED TO FOLLOW LOGICALLY FROM TWO OR MORE STATEMENTS OR PREMISES; LOGICAL RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN STATEMENTS THAT WOULD LEAD TO VALID CONCLUSIONS • PREMISE 1. THE RESTAURANT ACCEPTS ALL MAJOR CREDIT CARDS. • PREMISE 2. AMERICAN EXPRESS IS A MAJOR CREDIT CARD. • CONCLUSION. THE RESTAURANT ACCEPTS AMERICAN EXPRESS. • BELIEF-BIAS EFFECT - PEOPLE TEND TO JUDGE AS VALID THOSE CONCLUSIONS THAT THEY FIND BELIEVABLE AND JUDGE AS INVALID THOSE CONCLUSIONS THEY FIND UNBELIEVABLE

INDUCTIVE REASONING – SPECIAL FORM OF THINKING • INDUCTIVE REASONING—A FORM OF REASONING THAT USES AVAILABLE EVIDENCE TO GENERATE LIKELY, BUT NOT CERTAIN, CONCLUSIONS • IN REAL-LIFE CIRCUMSTANCES, MUCH OF THE PROBLEM-SOLVING ABILITY RELIES ON INDUCTIVE REASONING • A MENTAL SET IS THE TENDENCY TO RESPOND TO A NEW PROBLEM IN THE MANNER USED TO RESPOND TO A PREVIOUS PROBLEM; HOWEVER, THE SAME SET MAY DISTORT THE QUALITY OF MENTAL ACTIVITIES AT TIMES WHEN OLD WAYS OF THINKING ARE NONPRODUCTIVE IN NEW SITUATIONS

JUDGEMENT AND DECISION MAKING • WE LIVE IN A WORLD FILLED WITH UNCERTAINTY • RARELY CAN WE BE CERTAIN THAT WE HAVE MADE A CORRECT JUDGMENT OR DECISION • WE CAN ONLY GUESS AT THE FUTURE, WE ALMOST NEVER HAVE FULL KNOWLEDGE OF THE PAST, RARELY CAN WE BE COMPLETELY CERTAIN THAT WE HAVE MADE A CORRECT JUDGMENT OR DECISION • JUDGMENT AND DECISION MAKING SHALL ALLOW TO DEAL EFFICIENTLY WITH UNCERTAINTY

JUDGEMENT AND DECISION MAKING • JUDGMENT IS THE PROCESS BY WHICH ONE FORMS OPINIONS, REACH CONCLUSIONS, AND MAKE CRITICAL EVALUATIONS OF EVENTS AND PEOPLE • OFTEN, IN REAL LIFE JUDGMENTS ARE MADE RAPIDLY AND SPONTANEOUSLY WITH NO FORMAL PROCEDURE APLLIED TO REACHING A CONCLUSION • DECISION MAKING IS THE PROCESS OF CHOOSING BETWEEN ALTERNATIVES, SELECTING AND REJECTING AVAILABLE OPTIONS • DECISION MAKING IS MORE RELATED TO BEHAVIORAL ACTIONS • AMOS TVERSKY AND DANIEL KAHNEMAN ARGUED THAT PEOPLE’S JUDGMENTS OFTEN RELY ON HEURISTICS RATHER THAN ON FORMAL METHODS OF ANALYSIS • WHY: THE ABILITY TO MAKE CORRECT JUDGMENTS QUICKLY (FAST) AND WITH LIMITED RESOURCES (FRUGAL) IS ADAPTIVE—THE ABILITY HAS SURVIVAL VALUE

AVAILABILITY HEURISTIC • AN AVAILABILITY HEURISTIC IS A MENTAL SHORTCUT THAT RELIES ON IMMEDIATE EXAMPLES THAT COME TO A GIVEN PERSON'S MIND WHEN EVALUATING A SPECIFIC TOPIC, CONCEPT, METHOD OR DECISION; • ONE'S JUDGMENTS ARE ALWAYS BASED ON WHAT COMES TO MIND • AMOS TVERSKY AND DANIEL KAHNEMAN EXPLAINED THAT JUDGMENT UNDER UNCERTAINTY OFTEN RELIES ON A LIMITED NUMBER OF SIMPLIFYING HEURISTICS RATHER THAN EXTENSIVE ALGORITHMIC PROCESSING.

REPRESENTATIVENESS HEURISTIC • ASSUMPTION PEOPLE MAKE THAT IF SOMETHING HAS THE CHARACTERISTICS CONSIDERED TYPICAL OF MEMBERS OF A CATEGORY, IT IS, IN FACT, A MEMBER OF THAT CATEGORY • MAKING JUDGMENTS ALONG THE LINES OF SIMILARITY WILL BE QUITE REASONABLE • REPRESENTATIVENESS WILL LEAD YOU ASTRAY, HOWEVER, WHEN IT CAUSES YOU TO IGNORE OTHER TYPES OF RELEVANT INFORMATION: MAKING QUICK JUDGEMENTS BASED ON MENTAL PROTOTYPES E. G. ANGRY EYES, MANY TATTOOS - CRIMINAL

ANCHORING HEURISTIC • PEOPLE’S JUDGMENTS OF THE PROBABLE VALUE OF SOME OUTCOME REPRESENT INSUFFICIENT ADJUSTMENTS—EITHER UP OR DOWN—FROM AN ORIGINAL STARTING VALUE. • IN OTHER WORDS, JUDGMENT IS “ANCHORED” TOO FIRMLY TO AN ORIGINAL GUESS • ALSO, ANCHORING IS A PARTICULAR FORM OF PRIMING EFFECT WHEREBY INITIAL EXPOSURE TO A NUMBER SERVES AS A REFERENCE POINT AND INFLUENCES SUBSEQUENT JUDGMENTS ABOUT VALUE

MAKING DECISIONS • THE FRAMING OF DECISIONS - THE MOST NATURAL WAY TO MAKE A DECISION IS TO CONSIDER WHICH OPTION WILL RESULT IN THE BIGGEST GAIN OR WHICH OPTION WILL RESULT IN THE SMALLEST LOSS • THE PERCEPTION OF A GAIN OR A LOSS OFTEN DEPENDS ON THE WAY IN WHICH A DECISION IS FRAMED. • PSYCHOLOGICAL EFFECT IS VERY DIFFERENT BASED ON THE FRAME WHICH IS A PARTICULAR DESCRIPTION OF A CHOICE

CONSEQUENCES OF DECISION MAKING • WHEN DECISIONS TURN OUT BADLY, PEOPLE WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE REGRET • STUDIES SUGGEST THAT PEOPLE EXPRESS THE GREATEST REGRET IS THEIR DECISIONS WITH RESPECT TO THEIR EDUCATION AND CAREERS • RESEARCHERS HAVE DEMONSTRATED THAT THERE ARE BOTH SATISFIERS AND MAXIMIZERS IN THE WORLD—AND THAT THE STYLE OF DECISION MAKING HAS IMPORTANT CONSEQUENCES

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