Problem Solving An interactive self training program The

Problem Solving An interactive self training program

The illiterate of the 21 st century will not be those who cannot read & write, but those who cannot learn, unlearn and relearn - Alvin Toffler

Goals: 1. To provide an understanding of problem solving, as a process and a revolution in thought 2. To provide an understanding of what to analyse and how to use analytical tools. 3. Suggest a few steps that could be used for problem solving. Adopt a systematic approach Desired outcome: a) Be aware that there exists a scientific system of taking decisions which may challenge many of our present ways b) Develop conviction that analysis helps problem solving c) Acquire the desire to start implementing a process orientation in problem solving in one’s own department d) Answer how organisations can transform themselves and become world class

Problem Solving

Why learn Problem Solving • To develop a systematic approach § § § Learn possible frameworks for understand & resolving problems Be able to reflect and analyse the approach Learning to improve problem solving skills Transfer skills, knowledge and experience to new problems Create a knowledge repository /avoid eyelash effect Logical and rational approach • See problems in a new way • Develop interpersonal skills and personal qualities • Improve success rate

How we do problem solving Actions taken Decisions made Judgments made Inferences made Facts / data selected Facts / data available

Common methodologies of problem solving • Intuition • Judgment • Ostrich Approach • Trial and error • Try the first solution • Ask advice • Delegate upwards or downwards

The path to skill in decision making Myriad specific situations Unconscious competence Rules of thumb recipes Conscious incompetence Unconscious incompetence Conscious competence

Problem solving terminology PURPOSE ISSUE Problem Cause Solution Solvable Cause

Problem Solving setting Problem Solving Creativity Innovation Self Development Change Management Total Quality Management Negotiation

Thinking Patterns for judgments • Strategic thinking • Emotional thinking • Realistic thinking – What we can do – Fix the essential problems first – Paretto analysis (draw) • Empirical thinking – Past experience – Available Data base – Done before

Thinking Patterns for systematic thinking • Rational thinking – – – Set ideal situation ‘To be” Identify ‘as is’ Identify gaps - problems Break own problems to causes Choose reasonable alternatives Implement solutions • Systems thinking (more scientific) – – – – Purpose Input Output Function Inside cause (solvable) Outside cause (unsolvable) Result

Thinking Patterns for systematic thinking • Cause & Effect thinking – Fish Bone – Tree diagrams • Contingent thinking – Game Theory • Different Situations • Analysis • Solution for each situation • Why – Why analysis

Thinking Patterns for efficient thinking • Hypothesis thinking – Develop hypothesis based on available information – Collect information to prove hypothesis – Test hypothesis against information, if OK proceed, if not – develop new hypothesis • Conception thinking – When you need creativity and flexibility – New Product Development – Shoji – Shiba or Triz methodolgy – Be visual – Write down what you think – Use cards, draw, write, arrange ideas – Change positions, group, form, viewpoints – After creating ideas translate into explanations

Thinking Patterns for efficient thinking • Structure thinking – Tree diagrams – Affinity diagrams • Convergence & Divergence thinking – Creative ideas – divergence – Summarize - convergence • Time order thinking – Prioritization

Facts & Data Problem Solving & Decision Making Boundaries Stakeholders Brainstorm Opinions & Assumptions Openness Challenges Goals Define the Problem Opportunities Suitable Feasible Flexible Results Procedure & Process Gather Information Develop Alternatives Identify important Criteria Evaluate & Prioritize Weigh Alternatives Select the alternative If results do not meet expectations reconsider Data analysis Identify advantages & constraints Develop a plan Implement Solution Inform stakeholders Compromise Monitor Progress Review/ Learn from your Experience Standardize

PROBLEM SOLVING

What is a problem • Are issues ------- problems • Are causes ---- problems

WHAT IS A PROBLEM? A problem is the undesirable result of a job Takahashi & Kume A problem is a gap between the actual state of affairs and goals, or the way things should be JUSE Problem Solving Research Group 1. Maintenance Related Level Process abnormality • Deals with abnormalities • Find and removes cause so as to prevent problem from recurring • Bring process back to status quo Time Continued

WHAT IS A PROBLEM? 2. Improvement Related B C A • Change level (eg. Reduce defective rate, increase production quantity, error rate, improve percentage on-time delivery), or • Reduce variation (make the process more capable) • Or both, ie, change level and reduce variation • Causes process to become better, cheaper, faster, safer, easier etc.

Sponsor/Management/ Voluntary Group PROBLEM SOLVING PROCESS A. Understanding problem areas Team Planning B. Selecting theme C. Forming the team Team 1. Understanding current circumstances 2. Establishing activity plan & targets The Problem Solving Process 3. Analysing the causes 4. Researching the improvement plan 5. Implement the plan 6. Verifying the results 7. Standardising & institutionalising Sponsor & Team Reflection 0601 Reflecting and looking into the future

PROBLEM-SOLVING LEVELS I. Input based: (Not part of problem-solving) 1. 5 -S activities II. Output based: Part of problem-solving 1. Abnormality. (sporadic) : Corrective Action Why-why analysis 2. Abnormality tags on equipment P-M Analysis Statistical tools 2. Stable/chronic trouble : Corrective Action Statistical tools Management tools DOE Continued

PROBLEM-SOLVING LEVELS II. Output based: Part of problem-solving (Contd. ) 3. Early stage instability : Corrective Action Statistical tools DOE 4. Improvement (of Q, C, D, S, M) Statistical tools Language tools DOE 5. Task Achievement type. DOE FMEA/FTA PDPC

TOOLS QC techniques are methods for establishing control by discovering problems, arranging and interpreting information, analysing factors, taking corrective actions, and making improvements K. Hosotani Seven QC Tools 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Check sheet Pareto diagram Cause-and-effect diagram Histogram Control chart Scatter diagram Graph Seven Management Tools 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Relations diagram Affinity diagram Matrix diagram Systematic diagram(Tree diagram) Matrix data analysis Process Decision Program Chart (PDPC) Arrow diagram Other tools • • Flowcharts Sampling methods Testing and estimation Design of experiments 300 260 • Correlation and regression analysis • Reliability engineering (FTA, FMEA, Weibull. . ) • Multivariate analysis • Optimisation methods (Linear Programming etc)

WORKING WITH FACTS AND DATA • Being reality oriented, not just concept oriented The Three Reals 1. The real workplace 2. The real object 3. The real fact • Distinction between facts and opinions (or interpretation). Use of language tools • Precise use of language is related to thinking with facts • Where there a number of complex interrelations between causes statistical treatment is essential

WORKING WITH FACTS AND DATA - 1 PURPOSES OF DATA 1. Data to assist in understanding the actual situation Arrange data for easy understanding, estimations or comparisons 2. Data for analysis: Analytical data examines the relationships between an effect and its causes 3. Data for control: Data to determine whether or not a process is normal, i. e. under control 4. Acceptance or rejection data: Data used to approve or reject, through total or sampling inspection 5. Regulating data Example : for raising an oven temperature 6. Data for records: QA records for product liability or Excise records

WORKING WITH FACTS AND DATA - 2 PURPOSES OF DATA To take corrective action it is essential to have a constant, accurate Grasp of the facts. When we go out and collect data, it becomes clear that our vague guesses based on experience were way off the mark. Checking the facts enables us to bring in effective countermeasures, leading to good results. K. Hosotani

VARIATION - TYPES OF CAUSES Two types of causes causing variation Variation which occurs even when the process is being operated the same way as always Variation which occurs due to an abnormality in the process and results in a particularly large variation This variation is a part of the system. Problems are chronic. To reduce this, the method (process) or system must be changed. This is the management’s responsibility Occurs when work standards are not correct, or are not obeyed, or are not there at all, or people operate in different ways. Also when there are specific reasons like changes in tools, materials etc. Problems are sporadic Called : Random causes Chance causes Common causes Called : Special causes Assignable causes Common causes Special causes

DATA Common Cause DISPERSION When variation occurs due to common causes only, the process is stable or in control Special Cause When variation occurs due to special causes, the process is unstable or is out of control Process in control Process out-of-control “In control” is a statistical term. It does not necessarily mean the variability is acceptable. In fact, most problems arise from processes in control which are outside desired limits. Whose responsibility is this? Management’s or workers’? The out-of-control point has in all likelihood a special cause which must be identified and removed. A process in control is predictable, that is, it will vary randomly within a range (with exceptions). No one point has any special meaning Questions to ask: What was different? What has changed? Looking at all the points together will not help. Was the standard followed? Was anything different observed about man, machine, material or method? Is there a known special cause such as power failure?

ACTION ON CAUSES Three levels of actions on problems: 1. Correction: Action to eliminate a detected nonconformity. (ISO 9000) i. e. , acting on symptoms or phenomena e. g. , rework, regrade, sort, replace 2. Corrective Action: Action to eliminate the cause of a detected nonconformity or other undesirable situation. (ISO 9000) 3. Preventive Action: Action to eliminate the cause of a potential nonconformity or other considerable situation i. e. , preventing the occurrence of a problem before it arises

ACTION ON CAUSES ACTING ON SYMPTOMS - ACTUAL EXAMPLES 1. Problem Solution 2. Problem Solution : We periodically get defective supplies of this plunger due to bend. We have asked the vendor many times to improve : We are developing another vendor : Customer X has got a delivery mixed up with products meant for customer Y : Train the stores staff (Does this necessarily mean corrective action? ) 3. Problem Solution : We got a customer complaint that the bore was oversize : We are now inspecting the bore 100% (Correction/Corrective Action/Preventive Action? ) 4. Problem : Customer A has complained once again of defect type T in our fabric : Production Dept. should be more vigilant (What type of action? ) Solution

PRIORITISATION Vital few Useful many A B C Prioritise problems, causes and opportunities for improvement D 1. Choice of defect types or causes to eliminate, or markets (or products) to develop, potential equipment errors to correct, or cost improvements to be effected where inter-dependence between choices is low. Tools: Pareto diagram, FMEA, circling items in a cause-and-effect diagram, mapping desired vs current product profile in QFD, resource allocation or production sequencing algorithms Continued

PRIORITISATION 2. Choice of key issues or problems to address, as in policy management, i. e. we get leverage. The issues are strongly interdependent. Ø Address the core issue, solving which many symptoms or potential troubles are eliminated, at one go. Tools: JIT methods (pacemaker process) Fault-tree analysis, PDPC. TOC tools: Current and future reality trees, Prerequisite trees Consensus tools also help focus on key issues.

EXAMPLE FMEA of Monthly production plan

PROCESS ORIENTATION = Process Inputs Factors (Collection of causes producing a result) Result • Without an output or a result, no process can be said to exist. To improve any result, we have to improve the inputs and factors. Result Orientation Focus on outcome alone. Ends justify means. Believe that “somehow” results can be delivered. Short-term thinking, often at the expense of what is more important, or at the expense of another result area. Distorted measurements and goals. Process Orientation Ends and means are not separable. We cannot control the result, only the means. A result cannot be improved on its own. Focus on lasting results, strong fundamentals, even at the expense of short term difficulty. Measurements & goals reflect real stakeholder needs. “Man control”. Like inspection, deals with Fact control. Deals with factors, and strengthens results, after the fact. Numerical goals, quotas. them. Forces people to “window-dress” results. Promotes openness to reality. Emphasis on control, rewards and punishment, Emphasis on commitment, intrinsic motivation. extrinsic motivators, attachment to results. MBO ! TQM

PDCA CYCLE • Deming’s visit in 1950 : The wheel of quality control showed QC as an endless cycle of improvement • The “Management” cycle or “Kanri” cycle is an offshoot of this RESEARCH & SERVICE (ACT) DESIGN (PLAN) SALES (CHECK) MANUFACTURING (DO) Continued

PDCA CYCLE PLAN : Define the problem, or state a goal. Determine the method (or process) by which the goal is to be achieved DO : Train, communicate, execute with everyone’s cooperation CHECK : Check the results. Check the factors affecting the results. Also check the effects (the impact) ACT : If results are not OK, take countermeasures on the causes of troubles in planning or in implementation If results are OK, standardise

PDCA CYCLE PLAN A P C D • The first step in planning is to define the problem or to set goals. Then, the questions must be answered : Why solve this problem ? Why achieve this goal ? Define problem, set goals P A Understand current circumstances Analyse the factors Find solutions Plan implementation C D • Having set goals, the method of achieving it has to be determined.

PDCA CYCLE DO • A P C D First Step 1. Train or 2. Communicate with all people involved Detailed standards help in training and communication • Elements of successful implementation 1. Plan adequate resources (manpower, materials, money etc. ) 2. Get everybody’s cooperation and commitment in advance 3. Design detailed activity schedule. Don’t make it too tight but base it on good understanding of what is involved 4. Be committed to the task and work to the schedule 5. Pay meticulous attention to detail 6. Correct small things going wrong early, not allowing them to grow big

PDCA CYCLE CHECK A P C D PROCESS INPUTS RESULTS CHECK POINTS (Reflect processes or causes) CHECK POINTS (Reflect effects or results) Continued

PDCA CYCLE A P ACT Result C D Not OK OK Standardise or Maintain as is Take countermeasures on plan or implementation and recheck Continued

PARTICIPATION BY ALL Company character Good company Humanity, solidarity Emotion Intelligence QC, Scientific attitude, rationalism - Hosotani • Participation means involvement by all in decision making and improvement activities. It means more power to people. It means openness.

Towards a smarter organization • Must improve quality of decision making • Adopt rational decision process • Train appropriate personnel in the tools for decision making • Improved understanding and implementation through repeated use. • Six Tools – – – Get support from top Start small, be patient Demonstrate value of rational decision making Train people Don’t be a hammer looking for a nail Practice continuous improvement

Never be afraid to try something new. Remember amateurs built the Ark. Professionals built the Titanic Unknown

Systems Thinking

WHY Analysis • • When confronted with a problem, have you ever stopped & asked why five times ? It is difficult to do even though it sounds easy. For example, suppose a machine stopped functioning: Question 1 : Why did the machine stop? Answer 1 : Because the fuse blew due to an overload Question 2 : Why was there an overload? Answer 2 : Because the bearing lubrication was inadequate Question 3 : Why was the lubrication inadequate? Answer 3 : Because the lubrication pump was not pumping sufficiently Question 4 : Why wasn’t the lubricating pump working right? Answer 4 : Because the pump shaft was worn and rattling Question 5 : Why was it worn out? Answer 5 : Because there was no strainer and the metal scrap got in • By repeating “why” five times, it was possible to identify the real cause and hence the real solution: attaching a strainer to the lubricating pump. If this procedure were not carried through one might as well have replaced the fuse or the pump shaft. In that case, the problem would recur within a few months. •