Probability What is probability Thumbtack Experiment Consider the

Probability What is probability?

Thumbtack Experiment • Consider the following experiment: toss 10 thumbtacks up into the air and let them fall on a flat surface • How many would you expect to land with the point straight up?

Thumbtack Experiment • Lets try the experiment – Toss 5 thumbtacks up and let them land. – Write down your individual data: how many landed with the point straight up? – Group data

Thumbtack Experiment • Based on our experiment…What is the probability that a randomly chosen thumbtack that is tossed up will land with the point side straight up? • Experimental vs. Theoretical • Is there a way to find theoretical probability for this experiment?

Dice Experiment • Work with your elbow partner – One person rolls 2 dice – One person tallies the sum of the 2 dice • Record your data on the poster • Histogram

Dice Experiment • Based on our experiment…What is the probability that the sum of the 2 dice is – – 2? 5? 7? 11?

Dice Experiment • Experimental vs. Theoretical • Is there a way to find theoretical probabilities for this experiment? • Equally Likely Outcomes Model – Sample Space of equally likely outcomes

Dice Experiment

Dice Experiment • Compute (theoretical) probabilities – Compare these results to our experimental probabilities

M&M Experiment • Dump out your bag of M&Ms • Consider the experiment: an M&M is randomly selected from your pile of M&Ms • What is the probability of selecting each of the available colors?

M&M Experiment • Compare your results with your table group members • Now compute the probability of selecting each of the available colors for your table group • Record your group data on the poster

M&M Experiment • The theoretical probabilities of obtaining each color from a bag of M&Ms are depicted in the following table: Color Probability of that color What is the probability of blue? Yellow 0. 14 Red 0. 13 Orange 0. 20 Brown 0. 13 Green 0. 16 Blue

M&M Experiment • Make a prediction: How many of each color would be likely to be found in a bag of 50? 100? 250? 500? 1000?