PROBABILITY What are my chances OBJECTIVE Understand that

PROBABILITY What are my chances?

OBJECTIVE • Understand that the probability of a chance event is a number between 0 and 1 that expresses the likelihood of the event occurring. • Near 0 indicates an unlikely event • ½ or 0. 5 indicates an event that is neither unlikely nor likely (equally likely) • Near 1 indicates a likely event.

PROBABILITY Probability - how likely something is to happen. • Many events can't be predicted with total certainty. The best we can say is how likely they are to happen, using the idea of probability. • The probability of an event occurring is somewhere between impossible and certain. Image acquired from https: //www. mathsisfun. com/probability_line. html

PROBABILITY Numbers (such as fractions or decimals) can also show the probability of something happening: • Impossible is zero. • Certain is one. Between 0 and 1 • The probability of an event will not be less than 0. • This is because 0 is impossible (sure that something will not happen). • The probability of an event will not be more than 1. • This is because 1 Image is certain that acquired fromsomething will happen.

FORMULA P(event) = Number of Favorable Outcomes (n) Total Number of Outcomes (x) Theoretical Probability - based on what could happen theoretically if the event is to be performed

SPINNER – BLUE? What are the chances of getting blue on the spinner? P(blue) = n/x n = (number of favorable outcomes) x = (total number of outcomes)

SPINNER – BLUE? P(event) = Number of Favorable Outcomes (n) Total Number of Outcomes (x) THEORETICAL P(blue) = 1/6 = 0. 167 = 16. 7%

SPINNER – BLUE? Experimental (actual) Probability Chance of an outcome based on a performed event or Spinner - Probability experiment

LAW OF LARGE NUMBERS LAW: a summarizing statement of observed experiments that has been tested many times and is generally supported by the scientific community; Examples: law of gravity, the law of thermodynamics, and Hook’s law of elasticity. LAW of LARGE NUMBERS: experimental probability will get closer to theoretical probability as more trials are conducted

PROBABILITY ACTIVITIES Theoretical and Experimental Probability • Station 1: Flip a Coin • Station 2: Roll 1 Die • Station 3: Pick a Card Color • Station 4: Pick a Card Suit • Station 5: Pick an Exact Card

PROBABILITY WEB LINKS Quiz: Probability Practice Quiz: Conditional Probability Practice: Simple Probability (Khan Academy) Quiz: Experimental Probability Video Tutorial - Probability VIDEO - Probability (Bill Nye)