Probability forecast use study Edwin Welles and Jan

“Probability forecast use” study Edwin Welles and Jan Verkade February 2012

Theme of present project: probability forecasting November 30, 2011

“How to realise the benefits of probability forecasting? ” • • Probability forecasting brings benefits to forecasters and end users Having a forecasting system that estimates predictive uncertainty is probably not sufficient to realise these benefits What needs to be done in addition to having a probability forecast? Present project aims to preliminary answer this question By eliciting expertise/judgement from forecasters and end-users November 30, 2011

Present project: use of probability forecasts • Looking at aspects such as: • visualisation • communication • decision-making • verification • training • “downstream” decision support systems • business procedures November 30, 2011

Project participants • • • Flood Control 2015 programme (funding) US National Weather Service, NCRFC Meuse River Forecasting Centre (RWS, Dienst Limburg) Water board Noorderzijlvest Scottish Environment Protection Agency (TBC) Why Deltares? • Delft-FEWS (CHPS) related research • Ph. D research on predictive hydrological uncertainty • The Netherlands can benefit from US prediction enterprise November 30, 2011

Case studies • not too large • straightforward forecast – decision – warning – response chain (not too many stakeholders involved) • largely based on desk research and interviews • desk research: review of current operational procedures • interviews: elicit expertise and/or expert judgement from forecasters and emergency managers “how would your tasks/responsibilities change if probability forecasts were to be introduced? ” November 30, 2011

Water Board “Noorderzijlvest” • Water Board: responsible for maintaining water levels in polder districts within acceptable levels (Fully controlled systems, well below MSL) • 2010 event: flood warning called, but nothing happened • Hydrologist was blamed • Way forward: probability forecasts November 30, 2011

Water Board “Noorderzijlvest” • November 2011: forecasting – warning – response exercise • Lessons: • interpretation of probability forecasts not an issue • information overload is • decision makers: with these forecasts, I don’t have to make my own estimates of the inherent uncertainties • probability forecasts used to devise scenarios (worst case) November 30, 2011

Study deliverables • Description of “best practices” of using probability forecasts within FFWRS, from multiple case studies • Inventory of likely challenges / possible obstacles for effectively using probability forecasts • Seminar, Report, scientific article • (while we’re at it: collect relevant reports from earlier, related studies bibliography, links and downloads will be published on the Deltares wiki pages) November 30, 2011