Prince William County Population Growth Demographics October 2016

Prince William County Population Growth & Demographics October 2016 Brian Engelmann, Ph. D. Demographer Department of Information Technology Geographic Information Systems (GIS) Division

Historical Perspective • The land now known as Prince William County was home to the Anacostan, Doeg, Iroquois, and Piscataway Indians. • 2, 000 square mile area named “Prince William County” designated in 1730 • PWC was Northern VA: VA General Assembly reduced the county’s size during estab. of Fairfax County in 1742 and Fauquier in 1759. • Dumfries experienced initial development due to Tobacco Inspection Station: PWC was a larger Tobacco exporter than NYC in 1763. • Prior to Civil War, the county’s 2012 population reached 11, 000. Prince William County (2012). FY Budget: The History of Prince William County. Retrieved from http: //www. pwcgov. org/government/dept/budget/documents/12 a--budget--02 --introduction--00 b--history. pdf

Historical Perspective • Virginia railroad reached Manassas in 1851, which brought a new form of shipping to the county. • Manassas became a town in 1873 and became the County Seat in 1892. • Manassas and Manassas Park became incorporated cities in 1975. • Residential developments, business expansion, and proximity to the nation’s capital has spurred rapid population growth beginning in the 1960 s • • 1960 PWC population: 50, 164 Prince William County (2012). FY 2012 Budget: The History of Prince William County. Retrieved from 1990 PWC population: 215, 686 http: //www. pwcgov. org/government/dept/budget/documents/12 a--budget--02 --introduction--00 b--history. pdf

Demograph ics 1790 1800 1810 1820 1830 1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Total Population of PWC since 1790 575, 000 550, 000 525, 000 500, 000 475, 000 450, 000 425, 000 400, 000 375, 000 350, 000 325, 000 300, 000 275, 000 250, 000 225, 000 200, 000 175, 000 150, 000 125, 000 100, 000 75, 000 50, 000 25, 000 0 Source: U. S. Census Bureau; Minnesota Population Center. National Historical Geographic Information System: Version 2. 0. Minneapolis, MN: University of Minnesota 2011; Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments.

Projectio ns 2016 Q 2 PWC Estimate: 434, 183 650, 000 Q 3 Orange Line: Logarithmic Growth Blue Line: Weldon Cooper Center Projections Gray Line: Linear Growth Model Other Estimates: -Weldon Cooper Center: 443, 463 (2015) U. S. Census Bureau; Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments; Prince William County GIS Division CHART GENERATED: OCTOBER 2016

Populati on Growth Green Area = Land Purple Lines = Magisterial Districts Blue Area = Water Bodies Deep Orange = Housing Units Hatched Area = Quantico U. S. Census Bureau; Prince Marine Core William County GIS Division

Populatio n Density U. S. Census Bureau; Prince William County GIS Division

Populati on Growth | Single- Family Detached | Mobile Home Park | Single- Family Attached | Multi Family- U. S. Census Bureau; Prince William County GIS Division

Demographic Change Non-White Population Growth 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 1980 1990 2000 2015 Black or African American Asian or Pacific Islander Other Race Two or More Races Hispanic or Latino White Population 1980 1990 2000 2015 89. 11% 83. 32% 68. 93% 57. 81% 57. 15% U. S. Census Bureau; Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments; Minnesota Population Center. National Historical Geographic Information System: Version 2. 0. Minneapolis, MN: University of Minnesota 2011. Historical Population Totals 1790 1800 1810 1820 1830 1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2015 Population Gain/Loss % Change 11, 615 12, 733 1, 118 9. 63% 11, 311 -1, 422 -11. 17% 9, 419 -1, 892 -16. 73% 9, 330 -89 -0. 94% 8, 144 -1, 186 -12. 71% 8, 129 -15 -0. 18% 8, 565 436 5. 36% 7, 504 -1, 061 -12. 39% 9, 180 1, 676 22. 33% 9, 805 625 6. 81% 11, 112 1, 307 13. 33% 12, 026 914 8. 23% 13, 660 1, 634 13. 59% 13, 951 291 2. 13% 17, 738 3, 787 27. 15% 22, 612 4, 874 27. 48% 50, 164 27, 552 121. 85% 111, 102 60, 938 121. 48% 144, 703 33, 601 30. 24% 215, 686 70, 983 49. 05% 280, 813 65, 127 30. 20% 402, 002 121, 189 43. 16% 451, 721 49, 719 12. 37% Housing Units 1980 46, 490 1990 74, 759 2000 98, 052 2010 137, 115 2015 145, 855 Median Age 1980 25. 9 1990 29. 1 2000 31. 9 2010 33. 5 2015 34. 6

Build-Out Analysis

Build-Out Capacities RESIDENTIAL BUILD-OUT TOTAL 181, 983 housing units. NON-RESIDENTIAL TOTAL 148, 800, 000 square feet RESIDENTIAL PIPELINE 36, 273 housing units

Build-Out Analysis

In Context PWC’s Total Population as a Percentage of Larger Entities: Metropolitan Washington COG Region: 8. 11% State of Virginia: 5. 54% U. S. Census Bureau; Prince William County GIS Division For more Prince William County demographic