Presidents Forum Jeff Rufener MCFA ITA ITA 24

Presidents’ Forum 主席�� Jeff Rufener (MCFA), ITA 杰夫 � 芬勒（三菱-卡特彼勒），ITA 24 September 2011 Palm Beach, Florida

GDP Update 更新GDP GDP增� (%) 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 GDP forecast 2011 GDP�� US – 2. 0 % CAN – 3. 3 % MEX – 4. 2 % Source: BEA/Business Economics 来源：��分析局

Industry Change and GDP行��化和 GDP % Change in North America Total Industry (Retail Orders) 北美地区叉�行��化 %（零售��） GDP growth of > 2. 5% drives market expansion GDP增� > 2. 5%�能��市�的�� 50% 2010 40% 2011? 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% 2009 2008 -30% -40% -50% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 2. 5% % Change in U. S. GDP增�（�化 %） 8%

U. S. Industrial Outlook + Industrial machinery Oil & gas well drilling Metalworking Machinery Electronic computer equipment Navigation, measuring, electromedical, & Alumina & aluminum controlling instruments Basic chemicals Fabricated metal products Paper Household appliance Motor vehicles, parts Electrical equipment Iron & steel products Semiconductors Decelerating Material handling equipment Growth Construction machinery 2011 YTD Pharmaceuticals & medicines Mining, oil field, & gas field machinery Ventilation, heating, air conditioning &commercial refrigeration equipment Engine, turbines, & power transmission equipment Medical equipment & supplies 2010: 39% Growth Accelerating Growth 31% Growth Aerospace product & parts Housing starts Source(s): Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI Accelerating Decline Decelerating Decline Electric lighting equipment Communications equipment Public works construction Private nonresidential construction

Manufacturing Industrial Production 制造�生�指数 06年 07年 07年 08年 08年 09年 09年 10年 10年 11年 11年 12月 3月 6月 9月 12月 3月 6月 9月 12月 Source(s): Federal Reserve Board and Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI 来源：�邦��金�察小�和美国制造商�盟

The Pace of Manufacturing Recovery 制造�复�的步伐 Manufacturing Production �生� 目前的周期 1974 -1975及1981 -1982的平均曲� F=Forecast�� Source(s): Federal Reserve Board and Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI simulation of the IHS Global Insight model, May, 2011 来源：�邦��金�察小�和美国制造商�盟，机械及�合�品研究所模� HIS全球形�分析 2011年 5月

年增�率 GDP and Manufacturing Production Growth GDP及 �生�的增� 国内生��� �生� F=Forecast Source(s): U. S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and Federal Reserve Board and Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI simulation of the IHS Global Insight model, May, 2011 来源：�邦��金�察小�和美国制造商�盟，机械及�合�品研究所模� HIS全球形 �分析 2011年 5月

年增�率 U. S. Manufacturing Production Growth 美国 �生�的增� Source(s): U. S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 来源：�邦��金�察小�

ITA Retail Orders and Shipments ITA的零售��和�� -11% 12 个 月 移 � 平 均 数 31% -19% -38% 39%

150 000 134, 615 200 000 95, 908 156, 322 179, 004 250 000 161, 430 ITA Retail Orders(US, CAN, MX) ITA零售��（美国、加拿大、墨西哥） 11% 20% 40% 39% 100 000 Cl 4/53 Cl 50 000 Cl 2 Cl 1 2012 F 2011 F 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 0

ITA Retail Orders(US, CAN, MX) ITA零售��（美国、加拿大、墨西哥） 120% 100% 67% 80% 63% 56% 60% 61% 60% Cl 4/5 40% 4/53 Cl 20% Cl 2 Cl 1 2012 F 2011 F 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 0%

ITA Retail Orders and Forecast (US, CAN, MX) ITA零售��及��（美国、加拿大、墨西哥） 240000 2200000 180000 160000 All 全部 140000 Class 1 120000 Class 2 Class 3 100000 Class 4&5 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 F 2012 F

Presidents’ Forum Jeff Rufener (MCFA), ITA 24 September 2011 Palm Beach, Florida