Presentiment The retrocausality debate Experimental approaches And Theory

Presentiment The retro-causality debate Experimental approaches And Theory Dick Bierman, University of Amsterdam Towards a science of Consciousness, Stockholm, May 3 -7, 2011

Synopsis of this talk • Bem, The D. experimental precursor ‘Presentiment’ (2011). Feeling the future, Journal of – Method and & Results Personality Social Psychology, 100, 407 -425. • Bems approach – Method & Results, example retroactive facilitation of recall 9 experiments suggesting retrocausal effects. – Criticism • Statistical • Ontological • CIRTS – Consciousness Induced Restoration of Time Symmetry • New experiments – Necker Cube: retroactive interference – Retroactive recognition

Presentiment a feeling about an event in the future …

Emotion Study (1999) Globisch, J. , Hamm, A. O. , Estevez, F. , and Ehman, A. (1999). Psychophysiology, 36, pp. 66 -75. 7 sec 150 msec 6850 msec Skin Conductance Fixation stimulus response anticipation time

Published Results Baseline had been set at stimulus-onset All signals are clamped to 0 there.

Results re-analysis raw data Baseline set at -7 seconds

Presentiment • Anticipatory physiology triggered by ‘future’? • Simple stimulus response paradigm • Comparing physiology within subjects between conditions e. g. anticipation of picture, random emotional or neutral

Presentiment variables • Dependent Variables – Skin Conductance – HR – EEG, CNV – BOLD – Blinks, pupil dilation, eye movement • Independent Variables – Pictures, sounds, shocks, slotmachine

Presentiment Meta-analysis • • • 37 studies, 15 different main authors Mean effect size: 0. 29 Combined p <10^-9 Filedrawer fail safe: 670 Gambler’s fallacy • Mossbridge et al (2011). In press.

Bem’s approach • Behavioral measures – No physiology because of global replication • Reversed standard Psychological Paradigms – Manipulation after the measurement • • Decision making Habituation Affective Priming Retroactive memory facilitation

Procedure retroactive facilitation of recall 3. Practice exercise 2. Surprise Free Recall 1. Visualize words To Towhichcategorybelongs Carpenter …. . . Carpenter Random subsample of words

Results Bem studies • Hypothesis Retroactive Facilitation of Memory – Improved recall performance on words that got later extra exercise. • Results Retroactive Facilitation of Memory – (N=150) mean effect size: 0. 30 (p<0. 01) • Results all 9 studies – All Bem studies mean effect size: 0. 22 (p<10^-10)

Criticism • Statistical – Using Bayesian stats the null hypothesis is still to be preferred (Wagenmakers et al, 2011)…. . – Over-analyses are not corrected for…. – Combination of experimental results is not allowed…. • Theoretical – Temporal Causality violation is not allowed……

CIRTS • Consciousness Induced Restoration of Time Symmetry • Symmetries in physics • In EM theory – Retarded and Advanced Solution – Initial & Boundary conditions » Conscious information processing as boundary condition restores time symmetry • Coherence to account for individual differences

Procedure retroactive facilitation of recognition 4. Extra exercise 3. Recognition Test 1. Attention task 2. Filler task Carpenter Did you see this word before? Learn these words Carpenter Hammer Trousers …. Random subsample of words

Retro-recognition results

Necker Cube study: retroactive interference

The Necker Cube experiment interference Change randomly into opaque Top or Bottom view Top view is experienced Top view duration First button press time Second button press when experience switches 19

Retroactive interference Results Followed by: (difference = 129, p<0. 03) N=153 Effectsize = 0. 17

Results split for experiment

The paradoxes • Formally Retro. Causality equivalent with bw time travel. • Formally Time Symmetry predicted • But ……. philosophical ‘grandfather like’ paradoxes – Synchronicity protection postulate (Hawkins) • Never allow time travel near grandfather • Never allow psi to become useable.

Conclusion • Retrocausality is physically not impossible – See also Helmut Schmidt in Foundations of Physics • Empirical evidence needs independent replication. – But replication runs against the ‘Synchronicity Protection’ • Experiments have to be set up to avoid paradoxes (can’t use the information from the future)

Thanks • The Amsterdam & Groningen Universities • Bial Foundation • Eva Lobach, Stephen Whitmarsh, Jacob Jolij, Victor Lamme and many students