Presentation of the tools developed part 1 Presentation

Presentation of the tools developed (part 1)

Presentation of the tools developed (part 1) Success & failures of forecasting systems -> Emilio GARCIA LADONA, ICMCSIC

Oil Spill (and SAR) forecasting system Pollutant (t) = Bio-chem. Transf. + Mech. transport TOSCA Mech. transport = wind + currents + waves + dispersion What is a forecasting system ? Model Toulon, 09/07/2013 + Initial Conditions (Observational Component)

Examples Lebanon spill, 2006 MT Haven, 1991, 145. 000 t, within Top 10 spills Source: Forecasting the Prestige oil spills, Daniel, et al. Interspill 2004. from Coppini et al. , 2010 Toulon, 09/07/2013

Validation activities Present Situation ü Improvements in terms of number of ocean and oil spills models §Mediterranean (source MOONGOOS) : • at least 3 global basin models and up to 13 high resolution regional models • MOHID, MEDSLIK II, TESEO, GNOME, MOTHY, OILTRANS, SIMPAR, Dem. Waq… • DREAM (SINTEF), OILMAP (ASA) …. . TOSCA validation activities üTest sites experiments (i. e Balearic exp. ) üTraining activities with SAR services Toulon, 09/07/2013

SST Obs. vs Models 27/10 30/10 29/10 ESEO 27/10 30/10 SOCIB IBI 27/10 Toulon, 09/07/2013 30/10 27/10 30/10

Models SOCIB ESEO q Operational Systems q. ESEOMED q. MED-MYOCEAN q. IBI-MYOCEAN q. SOCIB-IMEDEA q. SASEMAR: OILMAP / SARMAP IBI Toulon, 09/07/2013 MED-MY

Model Intercomp: (lagrangian) ESEO IBI-MYOCEAN SOCIB-IMEDEA MED-MYOCEAN Pure advection using an accurate particle tracer algorithm Toulon, 09/07/2013

Training exercises 4 SAR exercises in collaboration with SASEMAR using TOSCA developed drifters Toulon, 09/07/2013

SAR Exercise: Valencia Offshore Montecarlo + HIRLAM (AEMET) + HYCOM Montecarlo + Observed Toulon, 09/07/2013

Summary ü Both ocean and oil spills systems have been improved in the past decade (i. e. CALPREA, MERSEA, MYOCEAN, ARCOPOL, etc) ü Oil spill codes do not differ too much in terms of numerics, but the forecasting skill is strongly dependent on the accurarcy and representativity of the input/initial fields ü Present operational models provided significant different solutions (models with higher resolutions were more representative of observations) ü Observations improved model forecast in some cases dramatically. Forecast improvements indoubtelly require having good initial conditions (observations are crucial!) The situation of present operational products clearly reveals the need of further tests and validation in close cooperation with SAR agencies. Toulon, 09/07/2013

Thanks for attending TOSCA Final Meeting!