Presentation by Ajey Lele IDSA New Delhi at

Presentation by Ajey Lele IDSA, New Delhi at UNIDIR, Geneva on Aug 24, 2015

Space Stakeholders Military

CAVEAT The views expressed are my own and based on open source information

Main Stakeholders Civilian use Military Private Industry

Stakeholder Assessment Role Interests Potential Impact Influence Cost

Space has a Strategic Character Space technologies are strategic technologies. Military could be viewed as a part of overall strategic domain Geostrategic Attributes of Space Power ØSpace is the ultimate high ground ØSpace provides global access ØSpace allows global presence ØSpace enhances strategic depth All above makes Space Power as an instrument of state power

Space Power & Space Superiority • Space Power : The ability in peace, crisis, and war to exert, promote and sustain influence in or from space • Space Superiority: The degree of dominance in space of one force over any others that permits the conduct of operations at a given time and place without prohibitive interference from space-based threats Any military would desire such Superior Power

Reality Possibilities Need Future

Military Understanding of Security • A narrow view, hinging on military security alone • Is war fighting the only role for the armed forces? • Economic, environmental, energy, food, social & human security

Role of Security Forces • Conventional role • In aid of civil authorities (natural disasters etc) • UN peace keeping missions • Out of area of operations…response to ‘geopolitical ripples’ Aim is to safeguard state’s strategic interests

Space for Military • 1991 Gulf War and various subsequent military campaigns • Satellite technologies are used for intelligence gathering, communication and navigation purposes • Use of space assets for military purposes is an acceptable norm • Diverse challenges are attracting states towards…. . making space a vital element of their security architecture…. Belgrade bombing, DPRK threat…. • JDAMs, PGMs, various modern warfighting platforms …. . Asymmetric War to NCW…. . assistance from space is fast becoming a necessity

Deciding on Military Investments Fundamental Questions • What are threat perceptions? Needs for multilayered security architectures • How state views “space” in its overall security calculus? • Capabilities of the adversaries • Is “space” relevant beyond ‘full-scale RMA model’? • Validity of offence- defence balance…weapons of offence and defence are similar…. technologies are dual-use in nature

Use of Space by Armed Forces A theoretical appreciation • To build real time situational awareness through space communication and space sensors • To link radar and other communications networks over the entire length and breadth of the country • To assist in Ballistic Missile Defence • To gather real time intelligence about enemy aircraft, ships, armour, missiles and space borne threats • To prevent enemy from using their space assets…… by resorting to jamming

Military Priorities • Better sensors, a strong air/land/sea defence network, and a strike capability • A credible nuclear and conventional deterrent posture • A highly networked and information technology-intensive orientation • Capability to exploit space-based ISR, command control, and navigation assets that will offer both real-time and predictive battlespace awareness

Active Military Space Programmes • Major areas: Early warning, Optical Reconnaissance, Communications, Navigation and Signal Intelligence • Photo-reconnaissance Satellites/Remote Sensing Satellites. Electronic Intelligence/Communication Intelligence (ELINT/COMINT) Satellites, GPS (equivalent) Satellites, Spy Satellites • Who are in the Game? Major space-faring states have made investments. Almost everybody has a interest…. .

Militaries are looking for… • Launch of demand capability • Nano/micro/small satellites (to enhance warfighter situational awareness in the battlespace) • Space Fence programme: Enhanced space surveillance capability to track and detect space objects • Future war fighting communications needs. Use of commercial technologies for military communications. Advanced Extremely High Frequency (AEHF) military communication satellites.

Dependence, Vulnerability, Protection…. • Modern militaries have heavy dependence on space systems. So there is a need to assure that these vital services are available all the time • Adversary would make an effort to ensure that these facilities are unavailable • Protecting mission-critical constellations becomes a necessity • Counter measures, counter-counter measures…. .

Challenges…. . • Military is emerging as an important stakeholder in “space” • Also, achievements in space domain allows governments to seek status. It is an instrument to project power…both Hard and Soft • Would significance of space for the militaries would allow the world to make space as a ‘stable, safe and predicable domain’? If not, then how to ensure that Space Security is maintained? • What mechanisms could be put in place in regards to global military activities to ensure Space Security…. .

Bilateral & Multilateral Mechanisms • At Military to Military level……limitations for ‘all pervasive’ treaty mechanism……. some regulatory mechanisms at military level could feed into global mechanisms • Militaries can have mechanisms like cooperation in the surveillance of space (SSA), data sharing, advance notifications about the launch of military satellites • Military space agencies could conduct joint exercises (CBMs), denounce space weaponisation • Could have develop instruments like NFU, treaty on non-debris generating ASAT • Develop strategies to address Ballistic missile defence porgramme related challenges

Wrapping up • Pragmatic steps are required to be taken towards a more stable and predictable space environment • Thin line between militarization and weaponisation of space • Developments in technology would bring in more challenges • BMD is the elephant in the ‘space’ • Legally binding treaty mechanism is desirable

Postscript…… • No clarity about X-37 B etc…if space technology matures to a level of having a strike capability to address any target…. it would develop a revolutionary strategic significance • Need to factor in possibilities…future could be about weapons in space …. . Bows, Arrows and Nuclear Weapons…change in the notion of deterrence….

Thank You