Present Status of the Climate Forecast System CFS

Present Status of the Climate Forecast System (CFS) • Twice daily 9 -months forecasts making a monthly ensemble of 40 -60 members. • 15 -member reforecasts per month 1981 – 2005 – Calibration – Skill estimate – Analog and statistical forecasts • Products available on operational servers and on CPC and CTB web sites

CFS development work in progress • 5 -year 4 -times daily 60 -day forecasts using a 100 -km version of the CFS 2000 – 2004 for 2+ months for summer and winter – Look for useful products to fill the forecast gap between week 2 and seasonal. – NCO computer resource allocated – Toward a seamless suite of products • Multi-model ensemble – Test run the GFDL model, toward ESMF – GMAO very interested in participating in ESMF and reforecast – Working with COLA to get NCAR interested

CFS model development • Sensitivity experiments with newer versions of the GFS (CMIP) • Sensitivity experiments with the new land model of the GFS (reforecasts) • CTB sponsored sensitivity experiments • MOM 4 tests plus new sea-ice model. Both in higher resolution • Efficient coupler is nearly ready and will reduce computer resource demands • Making better use of the CFS forecasts (PNA, MJO, NAO, analogs)

Plan and challenge • Look for improved model (for ENSO and North America predictions) in 2006 -2007 to start the next upgrade of the CFS, With help from CTB, work on improved products from the CFS • Look for resources (cpus, disks, people) for the reanalysis and reforecast to be completed in 2007 -2008 in time for 2008 upgrade of the CFS • Accelerate model improvements through CTB funding for future CFS upgrades • Reanalysis was the weak link (tropics); Need Reanalysis with each model upgrade.

15 -member CFS reforecasts

15 -member CFS reforecasts

15 -member CFS reforecasts