PRESCRIBED SUBJECT Route 2 Prescribed Subject 3 Communism

• PRESCRIBED SUBJECT Route 2: • Prescribed Subject 3: Communism in Crisis • The Fall of Communism: The USSR and Eastern Europe • Area #1 – Domestic and Foreign Problems of the Brezhnev Era: Economic and Political Stagnation; Afghanistan

• Khrushchev Legacy Problems Inherited by – Seizes power from Malenkov/Bulganin Brezhnev after brief power struggle – Still repressive state but… • Fewer imprisoned • Less violence and few killed – Begins De-Stalinization • Secret Speech – CPSU, February 25, 1956 – Khrushchev shocked his listeners by denouncing Stalin's dictatorial rule and cult of personality – also attacked the crimes committed by associates of Lavrentiy Beria. • end to the role of large-scale forced labor • Freeing Gulag prisoners

• Khrushchev as reformer Problems Inherited by – Limits to critique of Stalin Brezhnev • Collectivization, anti religion (Churches closed) • Economic reforms but still a Command Economy – Modest industrial authority to local officials – Virgin Lands scheme » Grow crops on marginal lands like Siberia – Reforms lead to 6% growth 1955 -60 – Other reforms • Term limits for Bureaucrats (HATE IT!!)

• Khrushchev as reformer (2) Problems Inherited by Brezhnev • Invests in Space Race – Sputnik is first satellite 1957 – Yuri Gagarin first man in space 1961 • Foreign Policy – Secret Speech creates hope for reform in satellite states – The “Thaw” follows with the West • Peaceful Coexistence – USSR can compete without violence – Triumph over capitalism by example not force – Fails » Hungarian reforms crushed 1956 » H-Bomb developed and build 1 st ICBM (Missle) » Also Berlin Crisis 1958 -61, Cuba 1962

• Leonid Brezhnev – Khrushchev protégé whon heads Central Brezhnev Domestic Policy Committee – Conspires with N. Podgorny, A. Kosygin and M. Suslov to oust Khrushchev 1964 – “B” becomes General Secretary of Party, “P”, head of State, “Ko” gets SOVNARKOM – Not very bright, very vain (awards self 60 medals), is a classic Soviet Bureaucrat – Collective rule as he is a good organizer but not bright – Rules to 1982 as others gradually pushed aside • Ill by 1973, not in charge after 1976 (Senile) but kept on as figurehead • Leadership is very elderly doesn’t want power struggle

• Leonid Brezhnev • Reverses Khrushchev reforms Brezhnev Domestic Policy – Term limits abolished – Central Planning resumes – Kosygin tries to a modest reform by using sales and profits not quotas for production targets – Proposes local control and computers and automation to expand – Tech. trade as well – Brezhnev undermines reforms • Conservative by nature and won’t abandon price and wage controls • Reforms can’t work if this stays in place

• Problems – “Partocracy” Brezhnev Problems • Ensures political stability and Party power/privileges at all costs • Party grows 20% 1971 -81 – Harder to discipline/more diverse • 1977 Constitution reaffirms Party dominance – Socialism now mature (implies no changes) – Gerontocracy • Focus on “stability of cadres • Stay in office til death so CPSU ages (average P -buro rises 55 to 68 from 1966 -81) • Central Committee only 44% turnover same period

• Problems (con’t) – Corruption Brezhnev Problems • 750, 000 Party and State officials and managers (Nomenklatura) • Great security of position, privileges and perks – Special stores, medical, housing, income – Ex. Brezhnev has luxury Limos – Key function seems to be to preserve their status not to promote communism – Most don’t work hard, stagnation – Cynicism • Few citizens believe in communism, the Party or the system • Contempt for corruption “They pretend to pay us, we pretend to work”. • "Leonid Ilyich is in surgery. ""Heart again? ""No, chest expansion surgery: to fit one more Gold Star medal. "

• Bright Spots under Brezhnev? Brezhnev Problems – Living standards up modestly – State Security, KGB, MVD etc. is 700, 000 and prevents active dissent – State has full and active control of the media to stifle dissent – Party is quite large (10% of total population) and the privileged are unlikely to revolt – State propaganda trumpets Soviet sports success, particularly Olympics – Widespread cheating and drugs but athletes are national heroes – Problem is none of this gets active support for the regime they just endure it • Dissent never a serious threat – Do not overstate this – Mostly urban intellectuals, numbers small – Most of Khrushchev’s religious persecution ended

Brezhnev Problems • Dissent never a serious threat (con’t) • Still controls on Catholics and Uniates • Do take tough line on vocal dissenters – Y. Daniel, A. Sinayavsky get hard labor for smuggling out works (published abroad) – Poet Iosif Broadsky exiled 1972 – Solzhenitsyn, Nobel Prize The Gulag Archipelago and also writes about internal exile (Exiled 1974 after years in jail) – A. Sakharov, physicist internal exile 1980 (Soviet H-Bomb inventor) • Two strands of dissent – Human Rights/anti-authoritarians » Samizdat: self published photocopies (4000 in 1979) » Magnitizdat magnetic tape publishing

• Dissent (con’t) Brezhnev Problems – Growing national unrest not dangerous yet but potentially huge threat – Multinational USSR (Russians only 52% and birth rate declining – Baltics, Islamic regions all potentially explosive – Jewish “refusenniks” demand to be allowed to leave » Few are permitted, causes tension with the west (Why? Other groups might follow) – Why the growth of dissent 1970’s -80’s? • De-stalinization discredits Communist Party • Repression remains but Stalin successors reluctant to use extreme violence/terror (so more speak out) • Society more urban/educated undermines control • Aware of West culture/wealth (TV/Radio jamming doesn’t always work) • West pressures USSR to Keep human rights agreements like Helsinki Accords (1975)

• Economic Stagnation Brezhnev Problems – Slowdown of Econ. Worsens under Brezhnev • Stagnation here as well • At first failures masked by high oil/gold prices of which USSR has huge reserves – Can pay for tech. imports and grain • Some successes 1966 -76 – – Agri grows 21% 1966 -70 (Private plots expanded) Oil production up 50% 1972 -80 Siberian RR construction Living Standards ( 86% have Fridge, 74% have TV’s » Modest wage increase for urban and rural workers (up to 90% of industrial wage) » Basic commodities like bread, potatoes, clothes, rent, kept low by the state » Problem is state can’t afford the subsidies they pay to keep prices low

• Economic Stagnation – Failures under Brezhnev (con’t) Brezhnev Problems • Steady decline of Industrial growth • 5% 1960 -65, 2% by 1979 -82 • Tech. gap widens as computer age begins (no innovation/risk taking like Bill Gates or Steve Jobs) • Agri. growth 1% per year 1981 -85 despite investing 27% of gov’t budget on agriculture (ex. US gov’t 4% in agriculture at same time) – Subsidies 20% of Budge, can’t invest elsewhere • USSR can’t feed itself 40% of Gov’t earnings spent on grain imports • Over-dependent on foreign loans owe Fr. , FRG, Br. , US 50 Billion – Have to do joint ventures (ex. Natural Gas Pipeline 1980’s) • Dependence on oil and gold exports leads to disaster when oil prices collapse 1980’s – No currency for food or investment

• Economic Stagnation – Failures under Brezhnev (con’t) Brezhnev Problems • Indicators of failure – Living standards still behind the West – Even behind some Satellite states like GDR » GDR 40% with car, USSR 6% – Black Market 10% of economy » Tolkachi: set up fake factories and sell raw materials from gov’t to real factories » Deals, bribes, patronage to get access to scarce goods/services – Alcoholism rampant » 11% arrested for drunkeness 1979 » 50, 000/year die from alcohol related issues 1980 – Infant mortality 23/1000 1971 to 32/1000 1976 – Life expectancy down 4 years for men 2 years for women 1966 -81

• Why Does the Economy Stagnate? ? – Command economy won’t work (supply, demand Brezhnev Problems ignored. no innovation/risks) – No incentives Sovkhozes, Kolkhozes (agri. ) or in industry • Ex. US miner 14 tons of coal/day USSR 2. 1 tons with similar technology (paid anyway (poorly) why work hard? ) – Arms Race chews up resources (11 -25%) – Central planning prevents manager experiments/innovations – 5 YP’s quantitative not qualitative – Overemphasis on heavy industry = scarce consumer goods “Que up!” – Limited arable land vulnerable to bad weather – Agri. production fails to keep up with population • Private plots (1% of land) produce 28% of food (no incentives on state owned land) – Roads, RR’s limited, few refigerated RR Cars equals rot, Farm equipment poor quality/not maintained

• Was Brezhnev truly at Brezhnev Problems fault? ? ? • Did he represent what the Party wanted? • Do the Brezhnev Historiography Activity

• Brezhnev Foreign Policy Under Brezhnev – Initially poor relations with the west – Prague Spring 1968 Opens Communist Party to criticism in Czech. (A. Dubcek wants more open Party) • Brezhnev leads Warsaw pact invasion, crushes Czechs puts hardliner in charge • Brezhnev Doctrine states will intervene if Socialism is threatened in a socialist state – Relations improve in 1970’s with Détente • Means relaxation of tension (mostly with US) • Still try to expand but step back from the edge of war – Why Détente (USSR)? • • Fear of nuclear war Costs of arms race USSR needs western tech. USSR has caught up to US (ICBMs) militarily and welcomes a pause • Fear US/China cooperation

• Brezhnev Foreign Policy Under Brezhnev – Why Détente (US)? • President Nixon wants USSR/PRC aid to get a settlement on Vietnam War • Arms costs hurt US economy that is in recession • Yom Kippur war leads to massive oil price increase • US GDP delines from 38% of World to 25% • Kissinger US Sec of State accepts balance

• Brezhnev Foreign Policy Under Brezhnev – Successes • 1968 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty – Don’t transfer nuke tech. to other countries • 1971 Nuclear Accidents Treaty – Notify each other concerning accidents • Salt 1 Treaty 1972 – – Limit launchers 5 year ICBM/SLBM freeze ABM Treaty: 2 ABM sites each (200 total launchers) Bombers, MIRV’s not touched • US/USSR Trade Agreement 1972 – High Tech. exports allowed but Senate cancels it unless Jews can emigrate

• Brezhnev Foreign Policy Under Brezhnev – 1972 Basic Pricnciple of Relations • Formalize Peaceful Co-existence – 1973 Prevention of Nuclear War Agreement • Consult during Crises – 1975 Helsinki Accords • • Respect sovereignty Renounce Force Respect Human rights Respect borders – Ostpolitik • West Germnay refused to deal with any state that acknowledged East Germany from 1949 -1963 • Willy Brandt of SPD Chancellor in 1969 • Moscow Treaty formally ends WWII with USSR • 1971 two Berlins formally recognized • 1972 the two “Germanies” recognize each other • Makes US nervous, Brandt looking East?

• Brezhnev Foreign Policy Under Brezhnev • SALT II 1979 – – – 2400 Bomber/missile limit reduce to 2250 1985 1200 MIRV launchers Limit # of MIRVs per missile Commit to negotiate SALT III Never Ratified » Issues of verification » USSR Brigade of troops discovered in Cuba (violates agreement that ended Missile Crisis 1962) » Soviet Afghan invasion » Both sides follow SALT II provisions even though it is never ratified by US Senate – Late 1970’s Détente under attack in US and USSR • Achievements were always modest any many politicians US/USSR become hostile to it

• Brezhnev Foreign Policy Under Brezhnev – Challenges to Détente USSR • USSR resents linkage of negotiations to human rights – Carter links Détente to Soviet moral behavior • USSR anger at Camp David Egyptian/Israeli Peace Deal – USSR had been promised a seat at the negotiations but was cut out – Challenges to Détente US • USSR seeks to gain advantage in 3 rd World late 70’s • Carter Admin split, Brzezinski (Nat’l Security Adviser) sees it as one way street (USSR gets all the advantages) Vance Sec. of State wants to continue • US “New Right” – Increase defense spending, deter Soviets, end recession – Agree with one way street argument – Revolutions in Iran, Nicaragua, Grenada viewed as examples of cynical Soviet Exploitation

• Brezhnev Foreign Policy Under Brezhnev – Challenges to Détente US (con’t) • US “New Right” (con’t) • Reagan wins in 1980 and shifts policy – Middle East Background • Eisenhower Doctrine • Soviet Mediterranean Fleet Formed 1964 • Massive Soviet aid to Egypt after 6 Day War 1966 – Détente then calms things after 1968 • USSR/US to work for peace in the region – Challenges illustrated • Yom Kippur War 1973 – USSR knew of Egypt/Syria attack on Israel in advance and said nothing – Then threatened to send troops to separate warring states when Israel got the upper hand – Forced to back down when US went on worldwide alert (Fiasco for USSR)

Brezhnev Foreign Policy • USSR intervention in developing world – Want a say in 3 rd world countries, access to naval bases etc… – Angola » Battle between MPLA and FNLA-UNITA when Portuguese leave 1975 » FNLA-UNITA get help from South-Africa, MPLA gets USSR aid » Cuba sends in 17, 000 troops and MPLA controls most of country » US fears Soviet influence – Ethiopia/Somalia » USSR helps Ethiopia v. Somalia » 17, 000 More Cubans sent in » USSR gets port rights right on oil export routes from Persian Gulf » USSR reacting(? ) or aggressive expansionists(? ) US thinks it is the latter

• Brezhnev Foreign Policy Under Brezhnev – Challenges illustrated • Deployment of SS-20 s and Pershing II/Cruise Missiles – 1977 USSR installs mobile SS 20 IRBM MIRV missiles targeted on Western Europe and China – US counters with Pershing II and Cruise Missiles (Possible first strike as they fly low avoid radar) » USSR alarmed when after fierce political battle NATO accepts 108 (P) 464 (C) » USSR sees this as first strike, US points out USSR was trying to intimidate Europe – Would US fire its weapons if USSR shoots only at Europe? ? (Pershing/CM deployment solves this) • Poland: – Solidarity Union crushed by Polish Military Coup after Brezhnev threats to invade

• Brezhnev Foreign Policy Under Brezhnev – Collapse of Détente • Afghan Invasion – KILLS DÉTENTE – USSR invades to keep a left wing gov’t PDPA in power – PDPA tries limit Islamic influence, emancipate women etc. . and civil war breaks out – Iran, Pakistan and probably CIA support Muslim rebels – PDPA President Taraki fails to defeat rebels and is assassinated by H. Amin (USSR help) – Amin fails and USSR sends in 85, 000 troops 1979 – Carter responds » SALT II ratification efforts ended, embargo grain, Boycott Moscow Olympics, increase defense spending

• Brezhnev Foreign Policy Under Brezhnev – Poland 1981 • Solidarity Union movement threatens Polish Communist Party • USSR threatens invasion if Poles don’t act • Debt crisis forces wage cuts, price increases that leads to massive strikes 1980 • Polish Pope John Paul II elected and visits 1979 spurring nationalism • 1980 General Jaruzelski takes over and declares martial law (Ends 1983) and USSR relieved • West split – Europe trade sanctions v. Poland ignores USSR – Reagan embargoes high-tech to USSR too and stalls gas pipeline – Europeans furious and US eventually gives up

• Brezhnev Foreign Policy Under Brezhnev • The Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) or “Star Wars” – “Evil Empire” speech 1983 and second speech unveils space based defense nickname Star Wars – Soviets fear tech edge (Never deployed) • Reagan v. Andropov – KAL Airline 007 flight shot down when it strays over USSR territory 269 killed, False Missile launch warning by USSR radar system – Able Archer War Scare 1983 » 10 day command post exercise to simulate buildup to nuclear exchange » USSR thinks it is real » Reagan election, fierce anti-Soviet rhetoric, probing of Soviet defenses (sea and air) KAL have relations at all-time low » War scare as Soviets think exercise is real » Some argue we are close to war