Preparedness and Resilience to address Urban Vulnerabilities PRUV

Preparedness and Resilience to address Urban Vulnerabilities (PRUV) 3 -day Kick-start Seminar, University College Dublin Urban Planning, Security and Resilience Workshop Handbook Dr. William Hynes Managing Director Aoife Doyle, Maria Rochford Future Analytics Consulting Ltd.

Introduction This initial training session focuses on the concept of urban resilience and related concepts such as urban vulnerability and urban security in terms of how they are understood within the PRUV consortium. As this is the first meeting of the full PRUV consortium, the workshop has been designed as an introductory session to A resie urban resilience from a planning perspective and based on the European research findings of Future Analytics Consulting (FAC).

Objectives of Training/Seminar • To explore concepts of urban resilience within the PRUV project consortium; • To establish if there are different interpretations within the consortium as to what it means to be a resilient city and a resilient society; • To present an overview of how urban resilience is understood and applied from an urban planning perspective; • To present key research findings from EU projects within this arena.

Workshop – Exercise 1 This exercises explores the differences in understanding and application of urban resilience across disciplines and borders by asking the group to consider two questions as follows: 1. What do you understand by the term urban resilience (discipline perspective) ? Please write down some key words 2. What are the core differences in understanding amongst your group?

Introducing Urban Planning Urban planning is a balanced technical and political process addressing the welfare of people, the control of the use of land, the design of the urban environment, and the protection and enhancement of the natural environment. Cities are complex areas encompassing a variety of challenges which necessitate coordinated and holistic approaches. Isolated efforts result in alternate urban problems. – for example multi storey, high density buildings were constructed in France (and Ireland) in the 1960’s with an aim of addressing certain housing issues – however, problems of delinquency and violence quickly emerged due to overcrowding. Wider social integration measures were needed in addition to simply providing housing.

CONCEPT STRATEGIC CONCEPTUAL POLICIES QUALITATIVE PLAN TACTICAL MODELING FUNCTION EMPIRICAL DETAIL OPERATIONAL DESIGN DETAILS QUANTITATIVE Stages in an Urban Planning Process

What is ‘Urban’? • Terms related to human settlements have vague, shifting meanings. • What makes a settlement a ‘city’ or an ‘urban’ area? Depends on borders (administrative areas), densities, population size, level of built environment, quantum of services and facilities provided etc? • There is no standard international definition of an ‘urban’ area or ‘urban’ population. Each country has its own definition, and collects data accordingly.

What is ‘Urban’? Minimum Population Thresholds Source: World Bank, 2015

What is ‘Urban’? Population Densities • Only 9 countries use minimum population density thresholds, of which only one, Germany, uses it as a sole criterion for defining urban areas. • The lowest density threshold used is 150 persons per sq. km. (Germany), and the highest is 1, 500 (China and Seychelles). Source: World Bank, 2015

Urban Form types dispersed city compact city polycentric city linear city satellite city fringe city edge city the city construct is a key consideration

Urban Planning Context: Urbanisation and growth 1913 10% of the world’s population lived in cities 2013 50% of the world’s population living in cities 2050 75% of the world’s population will live in cities

Urban Growth Urban Areas. . are today home to more than 50% of the world’s population . . . Between 2003 and 2030 the equivalent of a new city the size of Hanoi (pictured), Madrid or Porto will be created every month . . . will expand by more than 29, 000 soccer fields every day for the next 18 years Annual increment of 35. 1 million households

Globalisation and Increasing Interdependency between cities “As centres of production and consumption, cities and their inhabitants are more and more reliant on resources and ecosystems services, from food, water and construction materials to waste assimilation secured from locations around the world” (Elmqvist, 2013)

Urban Vulnerability A range of adverse natural, terrorist and economic disturbances occurring over the last decade have highlighted the growing need for urban systems to cope with unexpected shocks and their impact.

Urban Vulnerability ‘‘[there is] a mounting recognition that disaster risk reduction, climate change adaptation and sustainable development are inextricably linked. These issues present mutually dependant challenges, which require collaborative, integrated strategies, strong governance, and innovative technological and financial solutions. Nowhere is this more evident than in cities. Complex, unique in their political and economic structures, and widely varying in the vulnerabilities they face, cities - and the growth they will experience over the next two decades will give way to some of the 21 st century’s most important social and economic challenges and opportunities‘‘ UNISDR, 2012 (United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction)

Definitions of urban resilience “ “ the capacity for a system to absorb disturbance and still retain its basic function and structure Walker, B. & and Salt, D. (2006) Resilience Thinking: Sustaining Ecosystems and People in a Changing World ” the capacity of a city’s economic, social, political and physical infrastructure systems to absorb shocks and stresses and still retain their basic function and Resilient. City. org structure (2010)

“ What’s become clear is that there active steps cities can take to influence their resilience, whether through sectorbased investments in infrastructure and technology, or cross-sector policy making Michael Stevens (2013) and coordination. ” New York City Resilience Project …direct role for built environment professionals!

The resilience approach. . . • Resilience emerged as a fusion of ideas for a new risk management approach in the early 2000’s. • ‘Resilience is the bridge beyond protection. . . ’ (R. David, IFIP CIP conference 2015, March 2015). The use of Google Analytics to assess the trends in the term “Resilience”

Shortcomings/limitations in the current resilience approach. . . Focus mainly physical infrastructure – oriented resilience Limited practical experiences of societal (community) resilience in Europe Research indicates that “…the established ways of organising for critical decision-making will not suffice in the case of a catastrophic breakdown. … effective response will depend on the adaptive behaviour of citizens …” Boin & Mc. Connell, 2007)

UNISDR-IBM-AECOM scorecard Source: UNISDR Disaster Resilience Scorecard for Cities (2015)

Why enhance societal resilience? Increase Citizen Quality of Life

Strategies for enhancing societal resilience These strategies should be viewed as an incremental approach towards enhancing societal resilience, which require further research and as yet have not been fully tested in practice.

Recovery: Resourcefulness & Rapidity Resilience Cycle Mitigation: Robustness & Redundancy INTEGRATED RESILIENCE CYCLE Response: Resourcefulness & Rapidity Preparedness: Robustness & Redundancy Adapted from: CSS Analyses in Security Policy No 60, September 2009 (Centre for Security Studies, ETH Zurich) in Charlie Edwards; Resilient Nations

Urban Security and Resilience the challenges Population Growth and Migration Optimise density throughout the city Public transportation corridors - concentrate density accordingly Core densities - what will market allow Densification development to provide revenues for urban and infrastructure renewal Transit Oriented Development (esp. Europe and North America) – land within 2 blocks of transport arteries is zoned for high density development and retail, with density tapering off the further away a location is situated.

Urban Security and Resilience the challenges Energy and Infrastructure Buildings and transportation Energy retention technologies necessary as part of all new buildings Older (non-historic) buildings need to be re-clad with highly insulating envelope Renewable energy infrastructure to be enhanced Transportation – 0. 11 k. Wh/passenger mile (tram) Vs. 1. 4 k. Wh/passenger mile (SUV) Urban planning as enabler of walking and bicycling (positive bias) to extend these energy gains

Urban Security and Resilience the challenges Energy and Infrastructure Physical infrastructure relating to energy, transportation, water and buildings underpin many other essential city operations and services: sanitation, emergency response, the delivery of food, fuel and other materials. . . Changing social, political and economic conventions is as fundamental to the success of city resilience initiatives as is upgrading physical assets.

Urban Security and Resilience the challenges Safety and Security is the degree or act of protection of persons or objects against risk stemming from the threat of human intent. Safety is the degree of protection of persons or objects against non-deliberate sources of risk. Risk is a measure for the expectation of an undesirable outcome impact to realise. This expectation concerns both the likelihood and impact of the undesired outcome. A threat is a source of potential harm. It includes security threats which originate in wilful act (the threat of violence or terrorism), and safety threats, which originate in non-intentional circumstances (the threat of natural hazards or man-made hazards).

Urban Security and Resilience the challenges Perceptions and Fear of Crime / Insecurity In implementing steps to reduce crime or insecurity, planners must be considerate of ethical issues (community acceptability of such interventions or technological solutions) and of citizen perceptions of security and crime. To date research has not yet identified consistent acceptance criteria and related requirements for urban planning, based on local culture or specific types of urban space. Different perceptions of risk and vulnerability can exist in the same city, varying according to social, economic or political relations. Such perceptions depend on culturally embedded meanings of risk – often influenced by the collective memory of particular events as shaped by political response, media framing etc.

Research Agenda the solution Human Vulnerability Combination of physical and societal exposure Social vulnerability Social, economic and political systems Physical vulnerability To exposure in the building environment Traditionally, resilience and security are given little consideration beyond streetlevel crime and surveillance… “security is often an after-thought where there is no ‘obvious’ threat…”! (Local Authority Planner, 2011) …but Security and Resilience in Urban Planning must take a greater role in human, social/ societal and physical vulnerability enhancements…

Emerging Lessons from EU Projects – Resilience and Urban Planning

VITRUV (Vulnerability Identification Tools for Resilience Enhancements of Urban Environments) VITRUV developed tools to aid urban planning teams in finding solutions to urban security and resilience issues Focus on planning urban spaces which are less prone to and less affected by attacks and disasters. The tools offer for levels of the planning process: Ø conceptual Ø plan Ø detail

VITRUV CONCEPT LEVEL TOOL: Easy-to-use, computer assisted support for city planners in order to systematically include security considerations in a conceptual stage of their planning. PLAN LEVEL TOOL: To provide an initial identification of “Hotspots-at-Risk” (visualised as simple blocks) during the planning stage. It is achieved by analysing the plan together with historic data on previous global terrorist attacks i. e. frequency, types of attacks, amounts of damage measured and types of buildings DETAIL LEVEL TOOL: Supports a detailed analysis of the identified “Hotspots-at-Risk” within an urban space using engineering models which consider multiple embedded potential terrorist attack scenarios in connection with the specific building designs, their resistance and use in the urban space in order to identify any potential weak points.

VITRUV

COBACORE Community Based Comprehensive Recovery COBACORE (Community Based Comprehensive Recovery) seeks to address the complex and increasing challenges facing needs assessment and recovery planning today: A lack of coordination and collaboration among organisations. The need for more effective common needs assessment. Sizeable information gaps in assessing the scale and severity of a disaster. Delayed utilisation of primary information sources (communities) for postimpact information collection. • Lack of community awareness and involvement, situation awareness, needs awareness or management. • •

COBACORE Community Based Comprehensive Recovery • New tools that supports local communities in their needs assessments and recovery planning during post-disaster recovery. • An integrated and interactive workspace platform • A collaborative environment where a complete-picture of the post-crisis situation can be generated. Citizens and relief workers will benefit from facilities to share needs and capabilities, and to build local partnerships. Governmental bodies and humanitarian relief organisations will have a community-generated view of the recovery process and means to collaborate strategically. Volunteers and online communities will have channels to contribute in a more coherent and visible manner.

RESILENS Realising European Re. SILienc. E for Critical INfra. Structure Wednesday, October 7, 2020 RESILENS ®consortium ; EU Horizon 2020 Project No. 653260 37

RESILENS Overarching Objectives ü The operationalisation of crisis and disaster resilience concepts for CI. ü The strengthening of CI (i. e. for water, energy, transport) which provide essential services and underpin socio-economic activity. ü Effective and coherent crises and disaster resilience management ü Operationalisation of the ERMG and Resilience management tools developed in the project, through pilot demonstrations. RESILENS ®consortium ; EU Horizon 2020 Project No. 653260 38

RESILENS Expected outputs üA RESILENS Decision Support Platform (RES-DSP) to ≥TRL 5. üThe RES-DSP will encompass as its major component a user-friendly, citizen centric European Resilience Management Guideline (ERMG), and, üA GIS based operational toolkit for CI resilience scoring and system auditing. RESILENS ®consortium ; EU Horizon 2020 Project No. 653260 39

RESILENS THE RES-DSP RESILENS ®consortium ; EU Horizon 2020 Project No. 653260 40

This project has received funding from the European Union’s 7 th Framework Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement No. 312013

Purpose Objectives Application Supporting urban decision makers in enhancing the resilience of large scale urban built infrastructure against existing and emerging threats. Specifically HARMONISE seeks to deliver: a) A holistic and interactive online HARMONISE Platform; b) A suite of innovative tools (toolkit hosted within the HARMONISE platform) for decision support; c) Greater understanding and awareness of urban security and resilience vis-a-vis dissemination activities; and, d) Commercialisation and employment opportunities among emerging new markets in this field. The HARMONISE concept will be applied across a number of European cities through the use of case studies for validation and refinement

Introducing HARMONISE

How will this work in practice? Point of Intervention Infrastructure type Hazard Type Public Building Planning, Design & Construction Mitigation Natural Disaster Attraction/ Entertainment Centre Preparedness Terrorism/Civil Unrest Management & Operation Commercial Centre Temporary Event or Activity Resilience Stage Response Man Made Accident Transport Node Recovery Tools

HARMONISE TOOLKIT Generic tools • • • Intrinsic holistic approach. Strongly shaped by thematic framework. Addressing many different themes of urban resilience. Easily linked to other tools. Represent effective entry points to platform. Specific tools • • Addressing specific themes of thematic framework. Lower capacity to create links HARMONISE; EU FP 7 project no. 312013

UNDERSTANDING CURRENT APPLICATIONS AND APPROACHES

UNDERSTANDING CURRENT APPLICATIONS AND APPROACHES Case Study Workshop Questions What do you understand by the term urban resilience? Do you think [the case study city] is a resilient city? Why / Why not? What would a resilient [case study city] look like? How can urban planning and management contribute to the enhancement of resilience – both within [the case study city] and within the specific case study area of [insert title of infrastructure project]?

UNDERSTANDING CURRENT APPLICATIONS AND APPROACHES Vantaa, Finland

UNDERSTANDING CURRENT APPLICATIONS AND APPROACHES Dublin, Ireland

UNDERSTANDING CURRENT APPLICATIONS AND APPROACHES Bilbao, Spain

UNDERSTANDING CURRENT APPLICATIONS AND APPROACHES Genoa, Italy

UNDERSTANDING CURRENT APPLICATIONS AND APPROACHES London, UK

UNDERSTANDING CURRENT APPLICATIONS AND APPROACHES Lack of awareness around the resilience concept Discipline specific applications and focus Limited strategic thinking –vertical / horizontal integration Lack of bespoke guidance / frameworks Need for better education and training Lack of knowledge around online resources for resilience building

TOOL DIVERSITY / AVAILABILITY – GAP ANALYSIS A preliminary review of 115 existing tools for addressing urban resilience or problems relating to urban resilience was undertaken as part of HARMONISE. Typical focus on pre-incident resilience (risk mitigation and preparedness), Many tools address natural hazards and terrorist hazards, while there are fewer tools targeting man-made accidents or infrastructure disruptions Most available tools targeted to experts, decision -makers and authorities, with few tools addressing citizen’s capabilities to enhance resilience and to cope better with disaster events.

Workshop – Exercise 2 Resilience Across Borders In this exercise the workshop participants are asked to consider the following questions: 1. Can lessons from European research and practice be transferred to the PRUV test bed countries? 2. Why are the key differences in terms of the interactions between risk / vulnerability in PRUV test bed cities?

Workshop – Exercise 2 Resilience. . . . ? . . of what? [Focal systems] …to what? [Specific threats] . . of what? . . so what? [Impact on] . . Now what? [Strategies]