Prepared by DHV MED on behalf of Eco
Prepared by DHV MED on behalf of Eco. Peace/ Friends of the Earth Middle East Roadmap for the Rehabilitation of the Lower Jordan River Gilad Safier August 2011 Gilad Safier November 2011
Agenda Current Accounts Zero Scenario Reintroduction Scenario ü Water quantities and quality today ü Represents an average year ü Future prediction for 30 years (2011 -2041) ü Including climate change, Population growth, changes in agricultural consumption, Approved plans
Current Accounts Model Scope §Timeframe: • Hydrological year starts at October 1 st • Monthly Resolution • Hydrological data from 1996 -2010 • One average year §Calculates: • Water flows (m 3/month) • Chlorides(mg/L) How to meet the Environmental flows?
Current Accounts The WEAP Model §GLOWA Model built in WEAP ü Reaches ü Water Sources ü Water consumers ü Hydrometric Stations ü Quality Samples ü Drainage Basins ü Dams ü Fishponds ü Groundwater …
Current Accounts - Calibration §Assumptions regarding salinity: • Fixed salinity of all water sources throughout the year • Effect of evaporation on salinity in the river itself is neglected • Runoff salinity is 50 mg/L • Salinity of return flow from irrigation is 800 mg/L • Salinity of return flow from saline irrigation is 1500 mg/L • Salinity of Israeli Sewage is 350 mg/L • Salinity of incoming groundwater is 1625 mg/L • …
Jordan River Natural Flows
Current Accounts Results §Top 5 contributors: a. b. c. d. e. Emeq Hamaayanot – 26 MCM; SWC - 19 MCM; Groundwater – 18 MCM; Nahal Harod – 13 MCM; Nahal Tavor – 8 MCM §Rough annual balance: • About 108 MCM enter the LJR • 20 MCM are consumed • 12 MCM evaporate • Annual flow at Bezeq is 76 MCM 9 MCM/Month FMS salinity=750 mg/L 220 MCM/Yr
Zero Scenario Current Accounts Zero Scenario Reintroduction Scenario Business As Usual 2011 -2041
Zero Scenario- Assumptions National Changes in demand • KAC • NWC Climate Change • Inflows to the Kinneret • Evaporation • Flows of springs Local Changes in demand • Reform in Fishponds • Irrigation • Population Growth Future Projects • • WW reclamation : Bitaniya, Beit-She’an, Harod Desalination of the SWC Release of Harod Spring Artesian wells upstream the Sea of Galilee 2 most important assumptions
Zero Scenario – Climate Change
Zero Scenario Water level in the Kinneret
Zero Scenario Annual Flows 400 9 MCM/Month FMS salinity=750 mg/L 220 MCM/Yr 69
Zero Scenario Monthly Flows – Period C 150 120 MCM 90 60 30 0 окт-25 окт-26 окт-27 окт-28 окт-29 окт-30 окт-31 окт-32 окт-33 окт-34 окт-35 окт-36 окт-37 окт-38 окт-39 окт-40
Zero Scenario Extreme drought
Zero Scenario Conclusions §Next 30 years can be split into 3 periods a. Next decade when the Sea of Galilee is still low b. Transition period when the Sea of Galilee is high but flows downstream are negligible c. Return of overflows to the LJR, albeit not in historical magnitude §Overall improvement in flows and quality, especially in period C: • Still be less than 10% of historical flows • Environmental goals are not met • Salinity wise, the river will be split at the confluence with Harod • Effect of overspills from the Sea of Galilee will be limited to a few months
Reintroduction Scenario Current Accounts Zero Scenario Reintroduction Scenario Zero Scenario + reintroduction 2011 -2041
Reintroduction Scenario Measures
Reintroduction Scenario Water level in the Kinneret 1. 3 m
Reintroduction Period C averages
Reintroduction Scenario Net costs & lost revenues Ø 370 million for dealing with the SWC and its brine. Ø 1, 300 million to decrease flow in the NWC. Ø 100 million to transfer effluents from the Kishon Water Works. Ø 730 million in lost revenues for the farmers in the LJR basin. Ø 970 million in lost revenues for the farmers in the UJR basin. Ø Possibility to pump 40 MCM/Yr from the river for saline irrigation at Emeq Hamaayanot – revenues of 600 million NIS Ø Downstream Bezeq Stream – water can be used for saline irrigation up until Adam Bridge
Reintroduction Scenario Effectiveness of measures
Conclusions §The condition of the Jordan River today is grim with only 3% of the historical flow. §The situation will somewhat improve over the next decades but not enough. §Salinity-wise the Jordan River will be split at Harod stream. §Releasing 125 MCM/Yr from the Sea of Galilee will be sustainable within 10 -15 years §Partial restoration of the Jordan River can be achieved at an expense/lost revenues of 3. 4 billion NIS over the next 30 years
Thank you for listening Gilad Safier M. Sc in Hydroinformatics 054 -9444118 gilad@dhvmed. com
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