Predicting Violence in Salinas Jarrod Shingleton Background Salinas
Predicting Violence in Salinas Jarrod Shingleton
Background • Salinas, CA has had an ongoing crime problem through its history • The homicide rate in Salinas is almost twice the homicide rate in the rest of the country • The crime is predominately caused by two feuding gangs: the Sureños and the Norteños
More Background • Thesis by Clark in 2009 usingle variable regression. • Using multiple variable regression to predict violence trends and eventually causality.
Salinas Violence Statistics
Salinas Compared to National Average Violence Per 100, 000 600 500 400 Salinas 300 National Average 200 100 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Taken from City-data. com 5 September 2011
Prior to linear fitting • Establish correlation between the dependent variable and the independent variables – Here: Violence vs. other variables • If correlation is high enough, choose variables and check correlation between independent variables
Correlation Variable Violence VS: Year 0. 637 Unemployment . 2253 Population 0. 6769 Unemployment with a 1 year shift 0. 4705 Dropout Rate 0. 3899 Number of police -0. 4772 Salinas PD budget 0. 3926 Vacant Houses -0. 5155 Salinas PD budget a 1 year shift 0. 4211 Person per House with a 1 year shift -0. 5804 Salinas Library Budget 0. 5118
Correlation Between Variables Variable Violence Vs: SPD Budget Variable VS: Violence Vs: SPD Budget VS: Year 0. 637 0. 9499 Unemployment 0. 2253 0. 2351 Population 0. 6769 0. 8937 Unemployment with a 1 year shift 0. 4705 0. 1991 Dropout Rate 0. 3899 -0. 5006 Number of police -0. 4772 0. 9439 Salinas Library Budget 0. 7479 Vacant Houses -0. 5155 0. 9352 0. 6690 Person per House -0. 5804 with a 1 year shift 0. 6500 Person per House 0. 5118
Fitting Function= 37595. 45 - 9599. 09 * (Unemployment) - 833. 021 * (Unemployment) 2 -23. 8122 * (Unemployment)3
Fitting Function with 2 Variables Fitting Function = 17865. 69 - 4. 382. 66*(Unemployment) - 371. 237 *(Unemployment) 2 - 10. 29 *(Unemployment)3 + 60. 11*(SPD Budget) - 3. 39*(SPD Budget)2 - 511. 60*(SPD Budget)3
Predicted Pattern of Violence for the Next 15 Years in Salinas
Questions?
- Slides: 19