Predicting Emissions from Oil and Gas Operations in

Predicting Emissions from Oil and Gas Operations in the Uinta Basin J. Wilkey, T. Ring, J. Spinti, D. Pasqualini, K. Kelly, M. Hogue, and C. Jaramillo Institute for Clean and Secure Energy University of Utah May 12, 2016 National Oil and Gas Emissions Committee Conference Call Webinar 1

Background • Oil and gas industry is primary source of O 3 in the Uinta Basin • Need emissions forecasts to plan implementation strategies • Objective is to forecast – All one-time and ongoing emissions from oil and gas industry – On a well-by-well basis – With uncertainty estimates 2

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EIA Energy Price Forecasts 4

Forecast Error Analysis • Cumulative Probability Beta CDF fit to R Values for Oil Prices 1 Year into the Future R Value 5

Simulated Price Forecast • 6

Simulated Price Forecast 7

Energy Price and Drilling History • 8

Drilling Model • 9

Drilling Model • 10

Drilling Forecast 11

Reworks 12

Decline Curve Analysis • 13

Decline Curve Analysis • 14

Oil Production Rates from New Wells ↑ over time 15

Is Production Worth it? • 16

Production Forecast 17

Emission Factor (EF) CDFs • Literature survey to find EF for – Species: CO 2 E, CH 4, and VOCs – One-time emissions sources • Site preparation • Transportation of materials • Well completion – Ongoing emissions sources • Production • Processing • Transport/transmission • For each EF type – Calculate mean and SD – Assume normal CDF – Randomly draw EF from CDF 18

Emissions 19

Future Work • Add equipment-based emissions calculations – Based on data from Utah DAQ oil & gas emissions inventory database – Source/equipment types • Well completions, RICE & turbines, separators & heaters, dehydrators, tanks, truck loading, pneumatic controllers & pumps, fugitive sources – AP-42 and NSPS JJJJ emissions calculations for: • PM 10, PM 2. 5, SOx, NOx, CO, VOC, CH 2 O • Extend model to make longer term (10 -20 year) projections 20

Additional Information Available Online at: http: //www. tandfonline. com/eprint/im. BDv. Wd. KCq. QKynv. ZDy 5 N/full 21