Precipitation verification Precipitation verification is still in a

Precipitation verification • Precipitation verification is still in a testing stage due to the lack of station observation data in some regions. ETS 5 mm 10 mm CTL 16. 35 18. 56 OPR 16. 50 20. 44 Positive vs. negative cases 4: 1 3: 1 1

Impact of WSR data (00 UTC 20 Jan. 2005) on 1 st, 2 nd, & 3 rd generation storms 168 hrs 84 hrs Initial time Courtesy of Dan Hodyss, S. Majumdar, Y. Song 2

NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS) • • Zoltan Toth, EMC/NCEP/NWS/NOAA, USA Jean-Guy Desmarais, MSC/CMC, Canada 3

INAUGURATION CEREMONY 4

NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM -NAEFS • Combines global ensemble forecasts from Canada & USA – 60+ members per day from MSC & NWS • Generates products for – Intermediate users • E. g. , weather forecasters at NCEP Service Centers (US NWS) – Specialized users • E. g. , hydrologic applications in all three countries – End users • E. g. , forecasts for public distribution in Canada (MSC) and Mexico (NMSM) • Requires moderate additional investment for – New telecommunication arrangements – Extra coordination in research/development & implementations • Operational implementation: March 2006 – Ready to serve IPY and PAPEX community in 2007 -2009 5

NAEFS & THORPEX • Expands national/international collaboration – Mexico joined in November 2004 – UK Met Office, FNMOC, AFWA to join in 2006 • Provides framework for transitioning research into operations – Prototype for ensemble component of THORPEX legacy forecast system • Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS), part of: • Global Interactive Forecast System (GIFS) THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) Transfers New methods Articulates operational needs North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) 6

OUTLINE / SUMMARY • LINKS BETWEEN THORPEX & IPY – Both global programs – THORPEX is weather component of IPY – Joint field program during IPY • SCIENTIFIC HYPOTHESES FOR THORPEX-IPY – Main sources of observational uncertainty over NH – Main factors supporting / limiting predictability over two hemispheres • NOAA’S INTERESTS IN THORPEX-IPY – Short-Term Arctic Predictability (STAP) – 3 -90 days forecast of high impact weather, sea ice, ocean wave, land surface – PACIFIC PREDICTABILITY EXPERIMENT – THORPEX-IPY theme – Complemented by meso-scale studies – NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM – Combined Canadian-US ensemble, users from Mexico & elsewhere – UK Metoffice, FNMOC, AFWA to join in 2006 – Prototype for future Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS, legacy of THORPEX) 7

BACKGROUND 8

Composite summary maps 139. 6 W 59. 8 N 36 hrs (7) 122 W 37. 5 N 49. 5 hrs (8) 92 W 38. 6 N 60 hrs (5) 80 W 38. 6 N 63. 5 hrs (8) 9

10

PROPOSED NORTH PACIFIC THORPEX REGIONAL CAMPAIGN (NP-TREC) 2 -MONTH FIELD PROGRAM DURING IPY Joint THORPEX – IPY Observing Period, Winter of 2007/08 1) Utilize enhanced IPY polar observing system in NWP – (2 yrs) Advantages for THORPEX Ensure real-time accessibility of data (for NWP centers, through GTS transmission) Explore targeted use of IPY polar data on forecasts over NA (cold air outbreaks, etc) Consider special enhancement of IPY data if needed 2) Enhance atmospheric observations in NW Pacific – (2 mos) Contributing to IPY activities Manned and unmanned aircraft, driftsonde, satellite, etc Extension of operational NWS Winter Storm Recon coverage (northeast Pacific) Targeted to improve Alaskan (and Northern Canadian) forecasts Study mid-latitude – polar interaction on daily time scale 3) Evaluate effect of enhanced observing system on forecasts – (2 mos) Mutual benefits Study combined effect of North Pacific (NP-TREC) & polar region (IPY) observations 2 -3 days – Polar regions of NA; 3 -14 days – NA, NH, Global domains PLANNING: a) Interface with IPY - International THORPEX coordination b) Develop detailed US plan – Coordinate within NA c) Start scientific work (eg, OSSE) as soon as possible d) NP-TOST for testing new components of observing system (2006) Opportunities for THORPEX: Assessment of major observational enhancements over polar regions Scientific collaboration on time scales of weather/climate interface Benefits for IPY: Link to mid-latitude weather processes (science and organizational) Improved targeted weather forecasts Improved sea ice & air quality forecasts Ample time for planning coordinated field program - Possible joint funding opportunities 11

12

13

14

15

16